Australia's sharemarket reached a second consecutive record high on Thursday, carried upward by the banks and a broader appetite for risk — yet the session was quietly complicated by news that the economy is, in some ways, too healthy for its own comfort. A labour market adding jobs at twice the expected pace has pushed the prospect of interest rate relief further into the distance, reminding investors that strength and ease do not always arrive together. Meanwhile, the ancient tension between commodity hope and geopolitical reality played out once more, as China's property rescue fell short o
ASX hits record high as banks rally; rate-cut bets cool on strong jobs data
A hot labour market keeps services inflation stubbornly elevated
Mark
Why did the banks rally so hard when the jobs number actually made rate cuts less likely?
Mimi
Because the market had been pricing in rate cuts for months. When those odds fell, it freed up money that had been sitting on the sidelines waiting for cheaper borrowing costs. Banks benefit from a stable rate environment—they can plan, they can lend. The Morgan Stanley earnings overnight gave them permission to move.
Mark
So a strong jobs market is bad for rate-cut bets but good for bank stocks?
Mimi
Exactly. It's counterintuitive until you sit with it. A weak jobs market would have meant rate cuts, which sounds good, but it also signals economic trouble. A strong jobs market means the RBA can stay put, which is actually a sign of health. Banks like health.
Mark
What about the iron ore miss? Was that really about the size of China's stimulus?
Mimi
It was about expectations. Traders had built in a number in their heads—something bigger, something that would signal real urgency from Beijing. When the actual figure came in, it felt like a shrug. And when China's property sector struggles, it needs iron ore less. That ripples straight through to Australian miners.
Mark
Why did uranium stocks suddenly matter?
Mimi
Because Amazon and Google just made nuclear small reactors a real infrastructure play, not a fringe bet. If the biggest tech companies in the world are backing it, the market thinks the energy problem is about to shift. Uranium miners went from speculative to essential.
Mark
AMP's jump was enormous. What changed there?
Mimi
Cashflow. Real, tangible cashflow from their wealth business, up 76 percent year-on-year. That's not a story about hope—that's a story about money actually moving through the door. Investors noticed.
Mark
And Star Entertainment getting to stay open despite everything?
Mimi
It's a reprieve, not a victory. They pay $15 million and live under a government shadow. But for shareholders, it meant the asset wasn't going to be shuttered. That's worth something.
The Pulse
- The ASX 200 climbed 0.9% to a fresh record of 8355.9, with the big four banks surging up to 2.6% on the back of Wall Street's overnight enthusiasm for the financial sector.
- September's job figures — 64,100 new positions, double the forecast — blindsided markets and effectively halved the odds of an RBA rate cut by December, from near-even to less than one-in-three.
- China's announcement of a 4 trillion yuan property support package disappointed traders expecting more, sending iron ore down 2.5% and dragging BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue sharply lower in the final hours.
- Uranium stocks ignited after Amazon and Ken Griffin pledged $500 million to small nuclear reactors — following Google's own nuclear deal a day earlier — with Boss Energy and Paladin Energy surging 6.7% and 11% respectively.
- AMP rocketed 17.7% on a 76% year-on-year cashflow surge, Star Entertainment jumped 13.7% after surviving a regulatory threat to its Sydney casino licence, while OFX Group collapsed 35.8% on a dramatic earnings miss — a market still pulling in every direction at once.
Australia's sharemarket reached a second consecutive record high on Thursday, carried upward by the banks and a broader appetite for risk — yet the session was quietly complicated by news that the economy is, in some ways, too healthy for its own comfort. A labour market adding jobs at twice the expected pace has pushed the prospect of interest rate relief further into the distance, reminding investors that strength and ease do not always arrive together. Meanwhile, the ancient tension between commodity hope and geopolitical reality played out once more, as China's property rescue fell short of what the world had wished for, while the atom — long feared — emerged as a new object of financial desire.
The Australian sharemarket closed at a record high for the second straight session on Thursday, with the S&P/ASX 200 finishing at 8355.9 — a 71-point gain driven largely by the banking sector. Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, ANZ and NAB all posted solid advances, riding the momentum of strong overnight earnings from Morgan Stanley that had lifted American financial stocks. The day had the feel of a market in confident stride.
That confidence was complicated, however, by an employment report that told a story of an economy running hotter than expected. Australia added 64,100 jobs in September — more than double what forecasters had anticipated. Rather than cheering, rate-sensitive investors recalibrated: the probability of an RBA rate cut before year's end fell from roughly even odds to less than one-in-three. VanEck's Russel Chesler explained the logic plainly — a tight labour market keeps services inflation elevated, and that keeps the central bank's hands tied.
The miners had a rougher afternoon. China unveiled a 4 trillion yuan expansion of its property support program, but the figure underwhelmed a market that had been hoping for something bolder. Iron ore slid 2.5% to around $102 a tonne, and BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue all fell between 1.3% and 2.7% in response.
The session's most unexpected energy came from uranium. A day after Google secured access to small nuclear reactor technology, Amazon and investor Ken Griffin announced a $500 million commitment to the same space. The ASX's uranium names responded immediately — Boss Energy surged 6.7% and Paladin Energy leapt 11%, offering mining investors a rare moment of unambiguous optimism.
Among individual stocks, the contrasts were stark. AMP soared 17.7% after reporting a 76% jump in cashflow from its wealth platforms. Star Entertainment climbed 13.7% after regulators allowed its Sydney casino to remain open — albeit under a $15 million fine and government-appointed supervision. At the other extreme, foreign exchange provider OFX Group shed 35.8% after earnings collapsed to $29 million for the half. The day's full picture was one of a market navigating genuine uncertainty, where every signal seemed to point in a different direction.
The Australian sharemarket notched its second record close in as many days on Thursday, a feat that might have seemed unlikely given the crosscurrents moving through the session. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 71.3 points to finish at 8355.9—a fresh peak—while the broader All Ordinaries climbed 0.8 percent. The day belonged to the banks, which surged on the back of overnight strength in the American financial sector. Commonwealth Bank jumped 1.6 percent to $142, Westpac climbed 2.6 percent to $32.55, ANZ gained 1.3 percent to $31.82, and National Australia Bank rose 1.7 percent to $39.12. The collective rally reflected investor appetite for the sector after Morgan Stanley's earnings had impressed Wall Street traders.
But the session's momentum was tempered by a piece of economic news that, on the surface, looked good for Australia. The labour market added 64,100 jobs in September—more than double what economists had forecast. The strength caught some investors off guard, and it shifted the calculus around interest rates. Money markets had previously priced in roughly even odds that the Reserve Bank would cut the cash rate by year's end. After the employment report, that probability fell to less than one in three. Russel Chesler, head of investments and capital markets at VanEck, noted that the robust job creation meant less urgency for the central bank to move. A hot labour market, he observed, keeps services inflation stubbornly elevated, which in turn keeps pressure on the RBA to hold its ground.
The iron ore complex stumbled in the final hours of trade after China's government announced it would expand its property-support program to 4 trillion yuan—roughly $820 billion. The figure disappointed traders who had been hoping for something larger. Iron ore itself fell 2.5 percent to a three-week low near $102 per tonne in Singapore trading. The miners followed suit: BHP dipped 1.3 percent to $42.99, Rio Tinto fell 1.8 percent to $118.63, and Fortescue dropped 2.7 percent to $19.91.
One pocket of the market lit up unexpectedly. Uranium stocks surged after Amazon and hedge fund manager Ken Griffin announced plans to invest $500 million in small nuclear reactors. The news arrived just a day after Google had signed its own deal to secure access to similar technology, driven by the tech giant's voracious appetite for power. On the ASX, Boss Energy jumped 6.7 percent to $3.46 and Paladin Energy gained 11 percent to $13.03, a rare bright spot for mining investors navigating a choppy session.
Among individual stocks, AMP rocketed 17.7 percent to $1.60 after reporting $750 million in cashflow from its wealth platforms in the September quarter—a 76 percent jump from a year earlier. Star Entertainment surged 13.7 percent to 29 cents following a regulatory decision that allowed the company to keep its troubled Sydney casino operating. The win came with conditions: a $15 million fine and ongoing supervision by a government-appointed manager, imposed by the NSW Independent Casino Commission. On the other end, OFX Group, which provides foreign exchange services to small and medium-sized businesses, plummeted 35.8 percent to $1.465 after reporting that earnings had collapsed to just $29 million in the first half of the financial year. The divergence between winners and losers underscored a market still searching for direction as economic signals pulled in different directions.
Notable Quotes
A hot jobs market is preventing inflation from falling much further, as it is keeping services inflation persistently high.— Russel Chesler, head of investments and capital markets at VanEck
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Economy & Finance