Asian stocks surge on AI momentum as markets shrug off Venezuela upheaval

The first full trading week of 2026 opened with Asian markets surging past record highs, driven by investor appetite for artificial intelligence stocks and a collective decision to look past a dramatic weekend of geopolitical upheaval. The MSCI index tracking Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 1.4% to reach new peaks, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 jumped more than 3.3% as markets reopened after the New Year break. Seoul and Taiwan each gained over 3%, hitting fresh records of their own.

The backdrop for this rally was extraordinary. Over the weekend, the United States had captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and placed the South American nation under temporary American control, according to statements from President Donald Trump. Trump told reporters he was prepared to order additional military strikes if Venezuela refused to cooperate with U.S. efforts to open its oil industry and combat drug trafficking. He also threatened military action in Colombia and Mexico. Yet despite this dramatic turn of events, markets largely shrugged.

The reason was straightforward: investors saw little threat to global energy supplies. Brent crude futures fell 0.7% to $60.33 per barrel as traders assessed the intervention. OPEC+ had voted the day before to hold oil output steady, and analysts concluded that even with U.S. military involvement in Venezuela, the world's oil markets remained well-supplied enough to absorb any disruption. The geopolitical shock, in other words, did not translate into an economic one—at least not immediately.

What did capture investor attention was the structural tailwind pushing markets higher: the relentless flow of American capital into artificial intelligence infrastructure and development. Taiwan and South Korea, home to the world's leading semiconductor manufacturers, stood to benefit most directly. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that between 5 and 10 cents of every dollar the United States invested in AI ended up in Taiwan, with much of the remainder flowing elsewhere across Asia. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the single largest supplier of advanced chips globally, was positioned to capture an outsized share of that spending.

Japanese stocks extended their gains after manufacturing data showed activity had stabilized in December, ending a five-month stretch of contraction. The Bank of Japan's governor, Kazuo Ueda, signaled on Monday that the central bank would continue raising interest rates if economic conditions unfolded as forecast, following a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% the previous month. Against this backdrop, the yen weakened, with the dollar climbing 0.3% to 157.21 yen per dollar—a two-week high.

China's markets moved more cautiously. The Hang Seng Index finished flat, weighed down by Chinese oil companies whose stocks fell 3% as a group. Australian shares were unchanged, with gains in major mining stocks offsetting losses in energy. Across the region, the message was clear: AI investment was the story driving valuations higher, while geopolitical risk remained a secondary concern.

Yet uncertainty lingered beneath the surface. Vasu Menon, managing director for investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore, noted that the unexpected nature of the Venezuelan intervention raised questions about whether the Trump administration might pursue similar regime changes elsewhere—Iran being the most obvious candidate. A midterm election year lay ahead, he observed, and the strategic calculations unfolding in Washington remained unpredictable. That uncertainty could support oil prices and buoy safe-haven assets like gold and precious metals.

Gold climbed 2% to $4,413.93 per ounce as investors sought protection against geopolitical risk. Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $92,393.99, while ether gained 0.3% to $3,153.41. The U.S. dollar index, measuring the greenback's strength against six major currencies, extended gains to a sixth consecutive day, rising 0.2% to 98.746. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond ticked up 0.8 basis points to 4.179%. In early European trading, futures pointed to modest gains, with the DAX up 0.5% and FTSE futures up 0.6%.

The market's message was one of compartmentalization: yes, the United States had just intervened militarily in Venezuela and threatened further action in the region. But the world's energy markets appeared resilient, and the real momentum belonged to the technology sector and the artificial intelligence boom driving it. For now, that calculus was winning out.