Asian markets opened the last Friday of October in retreat, even though Donald Trump and Xi Jinping had just agreed to extend their trade truce. It is a quiet reminder that a diplomatic handshake does not automatically settle the anxieties of the people who price the future. Beijing's stubborn tensions with Washington, a shrinking Chinese factory sector, and doubts about how much Big Tech will earn back from its vast AI investments weighed on the mood, while Japan, buoyed by its own industrial rebound, stood apart.
Asian Shares Mostly Retreat Despite Trump-Xi Trade Truce as Big Tech Spending Worries Weigh
Spending becomes the strategy, not the consequence.
Asian markets opened the last Friday of October in retreat, even though Donald Trump and Xi Jinping had just agreed to extend their trade truce. It is a quiet reminder that a diplomatic handshake does not automatically settle the anxieties of the people who price the future. Beijing's stubborn tensions with Washington, a shrinking Chinese factory sector, and doubts about how much Big Tech will earn back from its vast AI investments weighed on the mood, while Japan, buoyed by its own industrial rebound, stood apart.
Asian markets opened Friday mostly in the red, a day after Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping produced an agreement to extend the trade truce between the world's two largest economies. The news did not lift Chinese shares. The Hang Seng fell 1.1% and the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.8%, weighed down by the sense that tensions between Washington and Beijing had not truly gone away. Trump called the meeting a "12" out of 10 and promised tariff cuts, but stocks had already climbed to records on hopes for bigger breakthroughs, so the outcome felt like little new fuel.
China's official factory survey added to the gloom. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 in October, extending a seventh straight month of contraction at the fastest pace in six months. Japan stood apart, with the Nikkei climbing 2.1% to another record after industrial output unexpectedly rose 2.2%, rebounding from a sharp drop the previous month.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 1% on Thursday and the Nasdaq dropped 1.6%, pulling back from recent highs. Big Tech was the culprit. Meta Platforms sank 11.3% after signaling heavy spending plans for 2026, erasing much of its strong year. Microsoft fell 2.9% even though its quarterly results beat expectations, as investors fretted over higher planned investment and Azure growth that seemed slightly short of hopes. Alphabet rose 2.5% after comfortably topping forecasts.
The stakes reach far beyond traders. Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft together make up roughly 14.5% of the S&P 500, the index behind many retirement accounts. The central question now is whether the enormous bet on artificial intelligence will pay off, and whether China's factories can turn around.
Asian markets opened Friday mostly in the red, a day after U.S. stocks slipped following President Donald Trump's meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The two men had agreed to extend the truce in the trade war between the world's two largest economies, but the agreement did not lift Chinese markets. They fell on concerns that tensions between Washington and Beijing persist.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index shed 1.1% to 26,001.60, and the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.8% to 3,954.79. Fresh data added to the gloom: China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 in October from 49.8 in September. Factory activity has now contracted for a seventh straight month, and at the fastest pace in six months.
Japan was the outlier. The Nikkei 225 gained 2.1% to 52,411.34, another record, after a report showed industrial production rose 2.2% month-on-month in September. That beat market expectations and rebounded from a 1.5% drop the month before. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.5% to 4,107.50, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gave up earlier gains and shed less than 0.1% to 8,881.90. Taiwan's Taiex fell 0.2% and India's BSE Sensex slipped 0.3%. Indexes in Singapore, Jakarta and Manila were also lower.
On Wall Street Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 1% to 6,822.34, moving further from the all-time high it set Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% to 47,522.12. The Nasdaq composite dropped 1.6% to 23,581.14, pulling back from the record it set the day before.
Trump rated his meeting with Xi a "12" on a scale of zero to 10 and said he would cut tariffs. But stocks had already run to records on hopes for potentially bigger improvements in trade friction, so the outcome offered little new fuel.
Big Tech earnings added pressure, as high expectations met heavy spending plans. Meta Platforms fell 11.3%, trimming a 28.4% gain for the year and becoming the heaviest weight on the S&P 500. Analysts said investors were likely rattled by how much the company said it plans to spend in 2026. Companies across the industry have been on an investment spree to build out artificial-intelligence capabilities, and the worry is whether it will all pay off. Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management put it sharply in a commentary, describing moments when capital stops behaving like money and starts acting like obsession, with spending becoming the strategy rather than the consequence. In his view, that is where AI is now.
Microsoft sank 2.9% even though its profit and revenue for the latest quarter beat analysts' expectations. Analysts pointed to its expectation of higher investment spending in 2026 than in 2025, and to growth in its Azure business that may have fallen slightly short of some investors' hopes. Alphabet, Google's parent, climbed 2.5% after profit and revenue easily topped forecasts.
The stakes reach well beyond tech investors. Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft together make up 14.5% of the total value of the S&P 500, an index that drives many 401(k) accounts. Moves in those companies and a handful of other Big Tech names can overshadow what hundreds of other stocks are doing.
Elsewhere early Friday, U.S. benchmark crude fell 26 cents to $60.31 a barrel, and Brent lost 27 cents to $64.10. The dollar rose to 154.22 Japanese yen from 154.14, and the euro slipped to $1.1560 from $1.1566. The question now is whether the AI spending pays off, and whether China's factory data turns around.
Citazioni salienti
Trump rated his meeting with Xi a '12' on a scale of zero to 10 and said he would cut tariffs.— President Donald Trump
Capital stops behaving like money and starts acting like obsession, and that is where AI is now.— Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management (paraphrased)