Under the long shadow of a rivalry that has run since the nineteenth century, a new Ashes series opens at Edgbaston with five Tests squeezed into little more than six weeks. The experts gathered by Sky Sports mostly agree on the shape of the contest, a close series that could end 3-2, while disagreeing on which side will hold the urn at the end. Their arguments turn less on tactics than on something older: whether home ground and a bold temperament can outweigh the patient strength of a team that has not won in England for over two decades, and whether anyone's body will last the summer.
Ashes 2023: Hussain, Morgan, Atherton and Sky's experts split on whether England or Australia will win
Five Tests squeezed into just over six weeks
Mark
Almost everyone says 3-2. Is that a real signal or just a comfortable number?
Mimi
It reflects a belief that nobody will draw. Hussain, Morgan, Butcher and Ward all said results are likely in most Tests, so a 3-2 split is the natural shape.
Luke
But the winners differ. Hussain, Morgan and Tyler pick England, Atherton and Sangakkara lean Australia. Agreeing on a scoreline isn't agreeing on anything.
Mark
What do the Australia backers hang their case on?
Mimi
The bowling, and Smith and Labuschagne. Atherton says if those two run into form, Australia's attack gets runs to defend.
Luke
And he says the rest of the order hasn't done well in England recently. That's his judgment, not a stat the piece sets out.
Mark
Why did Doull single out Lyon?
Mimi
He thinks if Lyon keeps England nearer three and a half an over than six, Australia's quicks can attack from the other end.
Luke
Those run rates are Doull's illustration, not a forecast anyone has backed with numbers.
Mark
And fitness?
Mimi
Ward and Tyler both worry about the compressed schedule, with Cummins and Stokes carrying captaincy and bowling.
Luke
Cummins has said Australia have no fitness worries. Whether that holds over five Tests is simply unknown. Also, several of these voices are presenters from other sports, so treat their picks as opinion, not expertise.
Le Pouls
- The first ball at Edgbaston is bowled on Friday, and the panel's predictions are split almost evenly between England and Australia, with 3-2 the most common scoreline.
- Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne must rediscover their English form, or Australia's batting hopes could collapse against the Bazball attack.
- Nathan Lyon's spin is seen as the key to holding England's aggressive batters in check, freeing the quicks to attack from the other end.
- Fitness looms as the decisive threat: Cummins and Stokes must bowl heavily while leading their sides across five Tests in just over six weeks.
- Draws look unlikely in almost every forecast, so the series is set to be decided by the new ball and the first sessions of each match.
Under the long shadow of a rivalry that has run since the nineteenth century, a new Ashes series opens at Edgbaston with five Tests squeezed into little more than six weeks. The experts gathered by Sky Sports mostly agree on the shape of the contest, a close series that could end 3-2, while disagreeing on which side will hold the urn at the end. Their arguments turn less on tactics than on something older: whether home ground and a bold temperament can outweigh the patient strength of a team that has not won in England for over two decades, and whether anyone's body will last the summer.
The first ball of the 2023 Ashes is due at Edgbaston on Friday, and five Tests will run until The Oval on July 31. Sky Sports asked its panel of pundits, former players and presenters from other sports to predict the result. Most landed on 3-2, though they split over which side would win.
For England, the argument rests on home advantage and the attacking Bazball approach under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum. Nasser Hussain pointed out that England have not drawn a Test in 12 matches under McCullum, and Eoin Morgan argued the method must prove itself early. Simon Lazenby went furthest, expecting a convincing win on the strength of the middle order.
Australia's case leans on their bowling and on Smith and Labuschagne. They have not won a series in England since 2001, yet they arrive as World Test champions after beating India at The Oval. Michael Atherton called them marginal favourites, while Rod Studd argued that taking twenty wickets is what wins Tests.
Several panellists would not commit. Simon Doull saw Lyon's spin as the key, and Mark Butcher expected the new ball to decide early exchanges. Ian Ward admitted he had no idea. Nearly everyone doubted there would be many draws.
Fitness runs through all the predictions. Ward questioned whether Cummins could captain and bowl six Tests in under eight weeks, and whether Stokes could do the same. Cummins insists Australia have no fitness concerns. The opening exchanges between Warner, Khawaja, Broad and Anderson will show early who has the upper hand.
The first ball of the 2023 Ashes is due at Edgbaston at 11am on Friday, with Sky Sports coverage on air from 9.30am. Five Tests will be squeezed into just over six weeks, ending at The Oval on July 31. Ahead of the opener, Sky asked its panel of pundits, past players and presenters from other sports who would win. The answers mostly landed on 3-2, though they disagreed about which side would take it.
The case for England rests on home advantage and the attacking style the side has played under Ben Stokes and coach Brendon McCullum. Nasser Hussain, a former England captain, noted that England have not drawn a Test in 12 matches under McCullum. He picked England 3-2 and said the team is irritated by the idea that Bazball is simply slogging. In his view it is about enjoying the game and not letting pressure bite. Eoin Morgan, who captained England to the World Cup, also backed them 3-2. He argued that the method needs to work early in the series to reassure the team it can succeed against one of the best sides in the world, and he pointed to Edgbaston's excellent record for England and the weight of home support. Martin Tyler, better known for football, predicted an England win and recalled that his grandfather took him to Lord's in 1953, and that the urn came back to England that year and again in 1971. Simon Lazenby of Sky's F1 coverage was the most emphatic, expecting a convincing win and praising a middle order of Harry Brook, Stokes, Jonny Bairstow and Joe Root.
The case for Australia leans on the bowling and on two batters. Australia have not won a series in England since 2001, a gap of 22 years, yet they are the World Test champions after beating India at The Oval the week before. Michael Atherton, another former England captain, made Australia marginal favourites, at 3-2 or 3-1. He said everything depends on Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne finding their past English form, since the rest of the order, including David Warner and Usman Khawaja, have not done particularly well in England lately. If the batting falters, he said, England could win easily. Kumar Sangakkara also gave Australia a slight edge and stressed the openers against the new ball and the role of spin. Wayne Riley of Sky Golf expected Australia to win 3-2, praising their bowlers. Rod Studd of darts and rugby league coverage said Test cricket is about taking 20 wickets and argued that Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon form a better attack than England's, particularly with Jofra Archer and Jack Leach injured.
Several panellists wouldn't commit. Simon Doull, the former New Zealand fast bowler, said 3-2 but admitted he did not know for whom. He called Lyon's spin the key for Australia: if Lyon can hold England to around three and a half an over rather than six, the quick bowlers can be unleashed at the other end. He also flagged the all-rounders Cameron Green and Stokes as box office. Mark Butcher, the former England batter, also said 3-2 either way, and expected Anderson and Ollie Robinson to take the new ball and try to bring Smith and Labuschagne in early against a moving Dukes ball. Ian Ward said he honestly had no idea who would win.
On draws, the panel was nearly unanimous. Hussain, Morgan, Butcher and Ward all said they could not see many, with Ward adding "weather permitting".
Fitness is the other recurring theme. Ward called the schedule bonkers and asked whether Cummins can play six Tests in the best part of eight weeks, including the World Test Championship final, while captaining. He asked the same of Stokes, who must bowl and remain on the field as skipper. Tyler said durability would count as much as ability. Cummins has said Australia have no fitness concerns following the win over India.
What to watch first is the new ball: Warner and Khawaja against Broad and Anderson, and whether Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett can keep playing their natural game against Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood.
Citations marquantes
Australia are marginal favourites at home, maybe winning 3-2 or 3-1, if Smith and Labuschagne show their past English form.— Michael Atherton
England are slight favourites on home advantage, and the attacking method needs to work early; he predicts no draws and 3-2.— Eoin Morgan
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