Around 650 More Offenders to Leave English and Welsh Jails in Third Early Release Wave

On Tuesday, around 650 more offenders will walk out of jails in England and Wales, the third batch released under the government's plan to ease the prison population crisis. This group includes people serving sentences of up to three years and two months. Under the new rules, they leave after serving no more than a third of their sentence in custody, rather than the half that applied before.

The scheme began on 1 October. At least 1,350 offenders have been released under its first two waves. Officials project that by the end of the year at least 2,500 will have been let out to spend the second two-thirds of their sentence on licence in the community. The releases come in batches, with people serving progressively longer sentences, and the process ends next June with those serving more than 12 years.

Tuesday's cohort includes people convicted of affray, which carries a maximum of three years, as well as burglary and fraud. Some violent offenders could also be freed, among them people convicted of wounding, grievous bodily harm with intent, or lower-end firearms offences. People convicted of any of more than 70 offences are exempt from early release, including manslaughter, rape, sexual and grooming offences, and anyone serving a life term.

Weekly prison population figures suggest the programme is having an effect, for now. Data published on Monday showed 86,982 people in jail, with enough spare places to take in 2,076 more offenders if needed. That is 500 more cells available at any one time than on the eve of the programme's start in October.

Victims' groups and survivors have raised concerns. Refuge, which supports survivors of domestic abuse, told the BBC last month that perpetrators of such abuse are among those being released. Those leaving jail should typically expect electronic tagging and other monitoring conditions for the second third of their sentence. Probation officers are responsible for making sure they take part in courses or other programmes meant to turn their lives around, and that they keep to licence conditions, which can include bans on entering certain areas and on contacting victims.

The government has not yet published figures on how many people released under the scheme are recalled for breaching their licence. The latest statistics, covering April to June, show 12,338 offenders were sent back to jail for breaching their terms. That was 12% higher than a year earlier, but lower than the first three months of the year. Rehabilitation experts say recalls are often linked to missed appointments or failing to live at a specified address, and around a fifth are for a new offence.

The burden falls on probation staff. Napo, the probation union, has said the releases have put enormous strain on its members. They have been balloted in recent weeks on possible strike action over pay and conditions, and the result is expected on Friday. The Ministry of Justice offered a 5% pay rise; the union had demanded 12% to make up for earnings lost to cuts since 2010. The ministry calls the offer fair, says two other unions have accepted it, and says it comes with £700m of investment in probation to recruit 1,300 extra officers and introduce AI tools to reduce the monitoring workload.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has criticised the scheme, saying she was worried about dangerous people being let out on the street who have not served their sentence and have not been rehabilitated. An earlier early release programme introduced by the Conservatives freed more than 10,000 prisoners between October 2023 and September 2024. The next markers are Friday's strike ballot result and the still-unpublished recall figures.