Peace now, but there are no Armenians left
On the edge of two worlds, Armenia's voters handed Nikol Pashinyan a renewed mandate to walk toward Europe, even as Russia made plain the economic cost of that journey. The Civil Contract Party's decisive victory in June 2026 was less a moment of triumph than a collective act of will by a small nation still grieving the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and still bound by the energy ties that make defiance expensive. History rarely offers clean breaks, and Armenia's path westward remains threaded through a landscape of dependency, displacement, and unresolved grief.
- Russia moved aggressively before the vote — banning Armenian exports and warning of gas price shocks — making the election feel like a referendum held under economic siege.
- Pashinyan's approval had fallen by nearly half since 2021, weighed down by the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and a peace deal many Armenians experience as capitulation.
- Over 100,000 displaced ethnic Armenians haunt the political landscape, their absence a wound that no election result can close and no mandate can easily address.
- Voters rejected pro-Russian opposition candidates decisively, but Armenia remains inside the Eurasian Economic Union and dependent on Russian gas priced far below European market rates.
- Pashinyan now claims a mandate for Western integration while promising to stay in Russia's economic bloc — a contradiction that the coming years will be forced to resolve.
Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract Party won nearly half the vote in Armenia's June 2026 election, more than doubling the second-place Strong Armenia Alliance at 23.2 percent. Both opposition groups were openly pro-Russian, backed by a billionaire businessman and a former president with deep Moscow ties. Voters rejected them clearly, with 59 percent turnout across 19 competing parties.
Yet the victory carried a shadow. Pashinyan's personal approval had fallen from 54 percent in 2021 to around 30 percent — a collapse shaped largely by Azerbaijan's 2023 military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, which displaced 100,000 ethnic Armenians. That loss haunted the campaign. A peace deal with Azerbaijan, brokered by the United States and endorsed by Donald Trump, divided the country almost evenly: 44 percent in favor, 41 percent opposed.
Russia had tried to tip the scales. In the weeks before voting, Moscow banned Armenian exports of flowers, brandy, mineral water, and fresh produce. Putin publicly noted that Armenia buys Russian gas at $177.50 per thousand cubic meters while European prices exceed $600 — a pointed reminder of what Western alignment would cost. The pressure failed to move the result, but it did not disappear.
In Yerevan's Republic Square, the mood was muted rather than celebratory. A 70-year-old gardener cited pensions and healthcare as her reasons for supporting Pashinyan. A 40-year-old woman doubted the EU even wanted Armenia, and said of the Karabakh peace: 'There is peace now, but there are no Armenians left.' A 25-year-old argued the displaced should have been the election's central issue.
Pashinyan declared Armenians had voted for peace and regional cooperation, while also promising to maintain EAEU membership — an attempt to hold two incompatible directions at once. France and the EU offered congratulations; Russia accused the West of interference and called Armenian society deeply polarized. Both were right. The election resolved who would govern. It did not resolve whether Armenia can move West while remaining economically tethered to the East.
Nikol Pashinyan stood at a crossroads on Monday, and Armenia's voters chose the path he had been walking. His Civil Contract Party captured nearly half the vote—49.8 percent—in an election that felt less like a celebration than a referendum on whether this small South Caucasus nation of three million people would tilt toward Europe or remain in Russia's orbit.
The numbers told a clear story. Pashinyan's centrist party more than doubled the second-place finisher, the Strong Armenia Alliance, which took 23.2 percent. The Armenia Alliance came third with 9.9 percent. Both opposition groups were openly pro-Russian, backed by figures with deep ties to Moscow—a billionaire businessman and a former president. Yet voters rejected them decisively. Turnout was 59 percent, and across 19 competing parties and alliances, only a handful earned enough votes to enter the national assembly.
But the margin of victory masked a deeper fracture. Pashinyan's personal approval had collapsed from 54 percent in 2021 to around 30 percent today. The election was the first general vote since Azerbaijan crushed Armenia in a 2023 war over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave that had been home to 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Those people are now gone—displaced, scattered, their fate unresolved. That loss haunted the campaign and would haunt whatever mandate Pashinyan claimed.
Russia had not taken the election lightly. In the weeks before voting, Moscow banned Armenian exports of flowers, mineral water, brandy, fresh vegetables, and fruit. Vladimir Putin had called for a referendum on whether Armenia should join the EU or remain in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. He had spelled out the economic cost of Western ties: Armenia buys Russian gas at $177.50 per thousand cubic meters, while European market prices exceed $600. The message was unmistakable. Choose the West, and you will pay.
Yet Pashinyan had pushed forward anyway. He had passed a law to begin the process of joining the EU. He had accelerated peace negotiations with Azerbaijan, brokered by the United States—a move that won him Donald Trump's endorsement but infuriated many Armenians who saw it as surrender. He had hosted a summit of EU leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Yerevan earlier in the year. On Monday, after the results came in, he declared that Armenians had voted for "peace, regional prosperity and cooperation." He also promised to maintain Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, trying to thread a needle that may not have a thread.
In Yerevan's Republic Square, the mood was subdued. Lala, a 70-year-old gardener tending the roses, had voted for Pashinyan. She cited pensions, free healthcare, the visible work of governance. But others were less certain. Gohar, 40, doubted the EU even wanted Armenia—Georgia and Turkey had been waiting for years. On Nagorno-Karabakh, she was blunt: "Yes, there is peace now, but there are no Armenians left. I don't want the same thing to happen here." Arshak, 25, said the displaced people from the enclave should have been the election's central issue. Teenagers Anahit and Kimma, too young to vote, reflected the ambivalence of their generation: hope mixed with skepticism, a sense that whoever won, the hard choices were still ahead.
France and the EU congratulated Pashinyan on Monday. Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused the West of "unprecedented pressure" and "interference," and said Armenian society was "extremely polarised." Both statements were true. Armenia remains in the Eurasian Economic Union, still dependent on Russian energy, still without EU candidate status. The peace deal with Azerbaijan divides the country—44 percent support it, 41 percent oppose it. Pashinyan has won the election, but the deeper question—whether Armenia can actually move West while remaining economically tethered to Russia—remains unanswered.
Notable Quotes
Armenian people voted for peace, regional prosperity and cooperation— Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, on Monday after early results
Yes, there is peace now, but there are no Armenians left. I don't want the same thing to happen here— Gohar, 40, a voter in Yerevan, on the Nagorno-Karabakh displacement
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Pashinyan win so decisively if his approval rating had fallen to 30 percent?
Because the opposition was worse. The other major parties were openly pro-Russian, and voters seemed to prefer even a weakened Pashinyan to a return to Moscow's direct influence. It's not enthusiasm—it's a choice between two directions.
But Russia tried to stop this. The export bans, the gas price threats—why didn't that work?
It may have backfired. When a foreign power is seen as interfering, it can harden a country's resolve. Armenians knew what Russia was doing. That visibility may have made Western integration feel like a matter of sovereignty, not just economics.
The Nagorno-Karabakh displacement—100,000 people. How does that not dominate the election?
It does, but in a complicated way. Pashinyan made peace with Azerbaijan, which many see as betrayal. But the war was already lost before he took office. He's blamed for accepting reality, not for the reality itself. That ambiguity kept him in power.
So Armenia is now moving toward the EU?
Slowly, and with one foot still in Russia. Pashinyan says he'll pursue both—EU membership and EAEU membership. That's probably impossible long-term, but it's where he's positioned himself. The real test comes when Brussels or Moscow forces a choice.
What did the people in the streets actually feel about the result?
Resignation, mostly. Not joy. A gardener voted for him because pensions went up. A young woman worried about displaced Armenians. A teenager hoped the winner would be better than before. It felt less like an election and more like a holding action.