Neither side seems interested in returning to full-scale war
Seven weeks after a ceasefire silenced one of the most intense military exchanges in recent memory, the United States and Iran remain suspended between war and peace, bound together by mutual exhaustion and separated by demands neither side is yet willing to surrender. Diplomats are quietly assembling the architecture of a longer truce while soldiers and missiles continue to trade blows at the margins — violations that both governments condemn in nearly identical language. The ceasefire, improbable from the start, has outlasted the conflict that created it; whether it can outlast the politics threatening to unravel it is the question that will define the coming days.
- Tit-for-tat strikes — a US attack on a port facility in southern Iran, an intercepted Iranian missile over Kuwait, five drones shot down near the Strait of Hormuz — are rattling a ceasefire that both sides simultaneously violate and invoke.
- Negotiators have quietly agreed on a framework to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, but the deal hangs in the air: Trump has not approved it, and Iran has not confirmed it exists.
- An unofficial Iranian draft agreement circulated this week demanded the lifting of naval blockades and US military withdrawal — with no mention of nuclear concessions — and was swiftly dismissed by the White House as a fabrication.
- Trump publicly threatened to 'finish off' Iran if compliance was not forthcoming, and in the same breath warned that Oman — a key mediator — would be 'blown up' if it did not fall in line.
- Hardliners on both sides are pushing their leaders toward maximalism, while the unresolved core issues — Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and control of the Strait of Hormuz — remain as intractable as ever.
Seven weeks into a ceasefire that has already outlasted the war that preceded it, the United States and Iran are caught in an exhausting holding pattern — neither fully at peace nor willing to return to the scale of destruction that marked the conflict's opening weeks.
The fighting began in early April, when the US and Israel flew thousands of sorties over Iranian territory while Tehran responded with drones and ballistic missiles targeting American bases and Gulf allies. When the guns fell silent, neither side seemed eager to restart them. That fragile arrangement was tested again this week: the US struck a facility in the port city of Bandar Abbas, Iran claimed to have struck an American air base in retaliation, and the US shot down five Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz. Both governments condemned the other's actions in nearly identical language. Compared to the opening weeks of the conflict, however, these exchanges are skirmishes, not war.
Behind the scenes, Pakistan is leading a multilateral diplomatic effort to formalize a longer truce. Negotiators have reportedly agreed on a framework for a 60-day ceasefire extension, though Trump has not yet approved it. Iranian state media published what it described as an unofficial draft agreement — a 14-point document demanding the lifting of the US naval blockade, American military withdrawal, and joint Iranian-Omani management of Strait of Hormuz shipping. Nuclear concessions were conspicuously absent. The White House called it a fabrication.
Trump, speaking at a cabinet meeting, said Iran had not yet offered what was required, and threatened that Defense Secretary Hegseth would 'finish them off' if compliance was not forthcoming. He also warned Oman — a crucial mediator — that it would face consequences if it did not cooperate. The same day, the Treasury sanctioned Iran's newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority.
The structural gaps remain vast: Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, frozen assets, and control of one of the world's most critical waterways are not issues that yield easily to compromise. Hardliners on both sides are pressing their leaders to hold firm. Yet for all the pressure and posturing, neither government appears to want a return to full-scale war. The ceasefire holds — improbably, and for now.
Seven weeks into a ceasefire that has already outlasted the fighting that preceded it, the United States and Iran find themselves in an exhausting holding pattern—not quite at peace, not quite at war, and running out of time to decide which direction to move.
The ceasefire took effect on April 8th after five and a half weeks of relentless bombardment. During that initial phase, the US and Israel flew thousands of sorties across Iranian territory while Tehran responded with waves of drones and ballistic missiles aimed at American bases, Gulf allies, and Israel. By any measure, it was a conflict of staggering scale. Yet when the guns fell silent, something unexpected happened: neither side seemed eager to restart them.
This week tested that fragile arrangement. The US struck what its Central Command described as a ground control facility in Bandar Abbas, a port city in southern Iran. Tehran responded with a warning that aggression would not go unanswered, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have attacked an American air base—likely referring to a ballistic missile that was intercepted over Kuwait. The US called it an egregious ceasefire violation. Iran used nearly identical language to condemn the American strikes. On Thursday, the US said it had shot down five Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz. The exchanges sound ominous when listed in sequence, but they represent a universe of difference from the opening weeks of the conflict. This is tit-for-tat, not annihilation.
Behind the scenes, diplomats from multiple countries are attempting something far more difficult than either side's military operations: negotiating an actual settlement. Pakistan is leading the effort. The White House announced this week that negotiators have agreed on a framework for a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, though President Trump has not yet approved it and Iran has not confirmed the claim. On Wednesday, Iranian state media published what it called an unofficial draft of a 14-point memorandum of understanding. The document read like a wish list: lifting of the American naval blockade on Iranian ports, withdrawal of US forces from Iran's vicinity, and restoration of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran and Oman managing traffic. Notably absent was any mention of Iranian concessions on nuclear matters—the issue that sits at the center of every negotiation between these two countries. The White House dismissed the draft as a "complete fabrication."
Trump, in a televised cabinet meeting, said he remained unsatisfied with Iran's proposals. "They're starting to give us the things that they have to give us," he said, without elaborating. He then issued a threat: if Iran did not comply, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth would "finish them off." When asked about reports that Iran and Oman might jointly control shipping through the strait, Trump turned on the ally itself. "Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we'll have to blow them up," he said. On the same day, the US Treasury sanctioned Iran's newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, calling it another attempt by the Revolutionary Guard to profit from state-sponsored terror.
The bind Trump faces is real. A deal that satisfies his demands remains out of reach. Within his own party and among Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, there are voices arguing for a return to war to achieve total victory. Similar pressures exist in Tehran, where hardliners insist Iran has proven it cannot be subjugated and should demand maximalist concessions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that the coming hours or days would reveal whether meaningful progress was possible.
The issues dividing the two sides are profound and structural: Iran's nuclear program, the future of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets held abroad. Each touches on questions of national security and sovereignty that neither side can easily compromise on. Yet for all the domestic pressure on both leaders and all the military posturing in the Gulf, neither the US nor Iran appears genuinely interested in returning to full-scale war. The ceasefire, now more than seven weeks old, continues to hold. What remains to be seen is whether it can evolve into something more durable, or whether it will eventually collapse under the weight of demands neither side is willing to meet.
Notable Quotes
They're starting to give us the things that they have to give us. If they won't, then the man on my left is going to finish them off.— President Trump, referring to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth
Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we'll have to blow them up.— President Trump, on Oman's potential role in managing the Strait of Hormuz
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Trump keep threatening Oman? It seems like an odd target for anger.
Because Oman is being asked to share control of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran. That strait is one of the world's most critical shipping lanes—roughly a third of all maritime oil trade passes through it. If Iran and Oman jointly manage traffic there, the US loses the ability to unilaterally control what moves through. Trump sees that as unacceptable.
So this isn't really about Oman at all.
No. Oman is just the messenger. The real issue is that Iran wants to be treated as a regional power with legitimate interests, and the US wants to maintain the kind of dominance it's had for decades. Those two things are hard to reconcile.
What about the nuclear program? That seems like the thing that started all this.
It's the thing that started the original conflict decades ago, yes. But right now it's almost a side issue in the negotiations. Iran won't even discuss nuclear concessions in the draft they leaked. They're focused on getting sanctions lifted and getting US forces out of the region. Trump wants nuclear guarantees. Neither side is willing to move first.
So why hasn't the war restarted?
Because both sides have learned something. The US saw that Iran can actually defend itself—those missiles got through. Iran saw that it can't win a prolonged conflict against American air power. So there's a mutual exhaustion. But that's not the same as wanting peace. It's more like both sides are tired and waiting to see if the other blinks.
And if they don't blink?
Then you're back to war. The ceasefire is only 60 days if Trump approves the extension. After that, either they have a deal or they don't. And if they don't, the hawks on both sides will push for a return to fighting.