In the world's most populous nation, where aspiration and affordability have long negotiated an uneasy truce, Apple now faces a reckoning. A near-doubling of memory chip costs has forced the company to raise iPhone prices by as much as 16 percent in India, stripping away the financing schemes and festive discounts that once made premium devices feel within reach. Analysts who once forecast double-digit growth have quietly revised their expectations to flat, a humbling revision for a brand that had come to regard India as its most promising frontier.
The Economic Times
· Jun 18, 2026
· economy
· 3 min de lectura
High
Verificación: Verificado
Apple's India iPhone growth forecast slashed to flat as price hikes loom
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Technology
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Sesgo y Encuadre
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Impacto Geopolítico
🌎
Apple's price increases due to chip cost inflation will flatten iPhone growth in India, reducing forecasts from double-digit to flat growth, with broader implications for tech supply chains and emerging market competitiveness.
Escalation Risk
low
Confidence
HIGH
India
Southeast Asia
Global semiconductor supply chain
Emerging markets
Shift in consumer purchasing power toward Chinese competitors (Xiaomi, OnePlus) in price-sensitive markets; reduced Western tech dominance in India's mid-range segment; increased leverage of semiconductor suppliers over device manufacturers; potential strengthening of India's domestic manufacturing incentives to reduce import dependency.
Similar to 2008-2009 financial crisis when premium brands lost emerging market share to value competitors; echoes 2021-2022 chip shortage period when supply constraints reshaped global tech competition.
Lente Económico
📈
Apple's price hikes due to rising chip costs will flatten India iPhone growth from double-digit to flat/low single-digit, as consumers delay upgrades and opt for older models amid currency depreciation.
Market Signal
bearish
Confidence
HIGH
Consumer Electronics
Semiconductor/Chip Manufacturing
Retail & E-commerce
Telecommunications
Financial Services (EMI/Credit)
Indian consumers face higher smartphone prices, reduced festive season discounts, and elimination of no-cost EMI schemes, forcing purchase delays and preference for previous-generation models. This reduces consumer purchasing power in the premium smartphone segment.
India may need to review semiconductor supply chain resilience, consider tariff policies on chip imports, and potentially incentivize domestic chip manufacturing. Regulators may scrutinize EMI scheme removals and pricing practices during inflationary periods.