On the day Apple gathers the world's attention for its annual iPhone event, the stage belongs for the first time to John Ternus, the company's new chief executive, who inherits both an enormous legacy and a question the market has not yet answered: whether a foldable device, long rumored and long awaited, will arrive at a price that dazzles or unsettles. Investors have learned to expect a brief stumble after such launches and a patient recovery in the weeks that follow, and they now watch the new pricing, the uptake of Apple's Siri AI features, and the company's language about demand for foldi
Apple's Foldable iPhone Tests Investors as Analysts Weigh Stock Reaction to Ternus-Era Launch
Cook is leaving big shoes, albeit of a different type
Mark
Why does this launch matter more than the usual iPhone event?
Mimi
Two things land at once. It's the first launch under John Ternus, and a foldable iPhone may be shown for the first time. Both put a new CEO under scrutiny.
Mark
What does history say about how the stock reacts?
Mimi
Bank of America's Wamsi Mohan says a small sell-the-news dip is typical, then recovery over one to two months. In 60-day windows after reveals, shares have gained about 17 times since 2007.
Luke
Worth noting that's one analyst's research, and it describes a pattern, not a promise. Also, the foldable hasn't been confirmed by Apple.
Mark
And the price, $2,000 to $2,500?
Mimi
That comes from reports, not Apple. IDC's Nabila Popal thinks it sells out anyway and could bring in over $45 billion by the end of next year.
Luke
That's a forecast from one analyst. She also says foldables overall stay a single-digit share of the market, so the $45 billion rests on Apple's pull, not on the category.
Mark
What will investors actually look at?
Mimi
Mohan names the size of price increases, Siri AI adoption and commentary on foldable demand.
Luke
Nobody knows yet how large the increases are or what Apple will say about demand. Those are the open questions.
Mark
And the Cook comparison?
Mimi
Shares rose 2,300% under Cook, or 2,736% with dividends, against 769% for the S&P 500. That's the bar Ternus is measured against.
Il Polso
- Apple's first foldable iPhone, reportedly priced between $2,000 and $2,500, may surface at today's event, raising the stakes for every announcement.
- Bank of America's analyst expects a modest sell-the-news dip after the launch, a pattern that has historically given way to recovery within one to two months.
- Investors are scanning for three signals: how steep the price increases are, how quickly customers adopt Siri AI, and what management says about foldable demand.
- The shares enter the event in strong form, up 17% this year, yet they sit under the long shadow of a Tim Cook era that lifted them more than 2,300%.
- IDC projects the foldable could bring in over $45 billion by the end of next year, even as foldables remain a small slice of the overall phone market.
On the day Apple gathers the world's attention for its annual iPhone event, the stage belongs for the first time to John Ternus, the company's new chief executive, who inherits both an enormous legacy and a question the market has not yet answered: whether a foldable device, long rumored and long awaited, will arrive at a price that dazzles or unsettles. Investors have learned to expect a brief stumble after such launches and a patient recovery in the weeks that follow, and they now watch the new pricing, the uptake of Apple's Siri AI features, and the company's language about demand for folding phones. It is a familiar ritual of a company that has long turned product unveilings into moments of collective anticipation, now performed under a leader whose predecessor's record is both a blessing and a measure.
Apple's annual iPhone event is underway, and for the first time the stage belongs to John Ternus, who has taken over as chief executive. The company has not confirmed it, but reports and leaks suggest a first foldable iPhone may debut alongside the next generation of iPhones, a device that has been anticipated for years.
Investors are already looking past the keynote. Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan notes that Apple shares have typically dipped modestly after launches before recovering over the following one to two months. His research shows the stock has risen in the 60 days after an iPhone reveal about 17 times since 2007, with the strongest run coming after the iPhone 11 in 2019.
The foldable, reportedly costing $2,000 to $2,500, is the wild card. IDC's Nabila Popal believes buyers will embrace it anyway, citing Apple's skill at creating exclusivity and scarcity, and forecasts more than $45 billion in revenue by the end of next year, even though foldables still hold a single-digit share of the market.
Mohan says the reaction will hinge on how large the price increases are, how well Siri AI features catch on, and what the company reveals about foldable demand. Ternus also inherits a towering record: under Tim Cook, Apple shares rose about 2,300%, or 2,736% including dividends, far outpacing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Warren Buffett has joked that Cook made Berkshire Hathaway more money than he ever did running the iPhone maker.
Apple holds its annual iPhone event today, and for the first time the stage belongs to John Ternus, who has taken over as chief executive. The company is expected to unveil its next-generation iPhones. Apple has not confirmed it, but reports and leaks suggest a first foldable iPhone could appear too, after years of anticipation.
Investors are focused on what happens to the shares afterward. Wamsi Mohan, an analyst at Bank of America, said on Tuesday, as quoted by Yahoo Finance, that Apple stock has typically taken a modest sell-the-news dip right after launch events. It then tends to recover over the following one to two months.
Mohan's research puts numbers on that pattern. Since the first iPhone arrived in 2007, Apple shares have gained in the 60 days after an iPhone reveal about 17 times. The best run came in 2019, when the stock rose 20% in the 60 days following the iPhone 11 reveal.
The foldable is the new variable. Reports say it would cost roughly $2,000 to $2,500 and fold open like a passport. Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, told Reuters that even at $2,500 the device would fly off the shelves, because Apple is so good at building an aura of exclusivity, luxury and scarcity. She expects it to generate more than $45 billion in revenue for Apple by the end of next year, even though foldables overall remain a single-digit share of the smartphone market.
Mohan said this year's investor reaction will likely turn on three things: how large the price increases are, how well Siri AI features are adopted, and what the company says about foldable demand.
The stock arrives at the event in good shape. Apple shares are up 3% over the past month and 17% so far in 2026. They have gained 35% over the past year and 112% over five years.
Ternus also inherits a hard comparison. Under Tim Cook, Apple shares rose 2,300%. Bloomberg reported that on a total-return basis, with dividends included, the gain was 2,736%. Over the same period the S&P 500 rose 769% with dividends, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1,512%. Chris Brigati, chief investment officer at SWBC, told Bloomberg that Steve Jobs left huge shoes to fill, and that Cook is leaving big ones too, though of a different type, given his very different approach to expanding the company's growth engines.
Warren Buffett, for whom Apple remains the top stock pick, once joked that Cook made more money for Berkshire Hathaway shareholders than he ever did as CEO of the iPhone maker. What to watch now is the pricing Apple announces, whether the foldable appears at all, and what Ternus says about Siri AI and demand.
Citazioni salienti
This year, investor reaction will likely depend on the magnitude of price increases, adoption of Siri AI features and commentary on foldable demand.— Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America analyst
Even with a $2,500 price tag, the Apple foldable is going to fly off the shelves.— Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, to Reuters
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