If Apple can truly nail the software and UI experience
Apple has yet to release a foldable iPhone, but the absence of a product is not always the absence of a strategy. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that because Android foldables remain a niche even among affluent buyers, Apple has not missed its moment so much as waited for the market to become worth entering. The deeper question is not one of timing but of execution — whether Apple can bring the software fluency and design coherence that the foldable category has so far lacked. Markets are beginning to answer that question with conviction, pricing a 76 percent probability of a foldable iPhone launch before 2027.
- The conventional narrative that Apple is dangerously late to foldables is being challenged by the stubborn reality that no Android foldable has yet crossed into mainstream premium adoption.
- Samsung is pressing its first-mover advantage hard, projecting 20 million foldable shipments in 2025 and introducing a tri-fold device to cement its technological lead before Apple can arrive.
- Prediction market confidence in an Apple foldable launch nearly doubled in a matter of weeks — from 42 percent in mid-December to 76 percent by mid-January — signaling a rapid shift in commercial expectations.
- The market's anxiety is not whether Apple will enter, but whether it will price the device accessibly, with 80 percent of traders expecting a starting price above $2,000.
- If Apple clears the software and UI bar that has tripped up existing foldables, analysts believe it could reset the entire category and ignite a new upgrade cycle in a smartphone industry starved for growth.
Apple has never sold a foldable iPhone, while Samsung has been doing so since 2019. By conventional logic, that gap represents strategic disadvantage. But analyst Ming-Chi Kuo offers a different reading: the premium foldable market has not yet achieved mainstream adoption, even among wealthy consumers. Apple, in his view, has not missed a critical window — it has simply waited for one that is still opening.
The real test, Kuo argues, will be execution rather than timing. Existing foldable devices continue to struggle with software and user interface design, making their larger screens feel awkward rather than natural. If Apple can solve that problem — delivering a foldable that feels genuinely useful in daily life — it could reset the category entirely and spark a new upgrade cycle in a smartphone industry that has grown dependent on incremental improvements.
Samsung, for its part, is not standing still. The company describes foldables as entering an acceleration phase, with shipments projected to exceed 20 million units in 2025. Devices have grown thinner, more durable, and more capable, with multitasking and AI features replacing novelty as the primary draw. Counterpoint Research data confirms the momentum, recording a 14 percent year-over-year rise in global foldable shipments in Q3 2025. Samsung has also unveiled a tri-fold device, a deliberate move to deepen its technological lead before Apple can arrive.
Prediction markets are increasingly confident that Apple will arrive soon. Traders on Polymarket now assign a 76 percent probability of a foldable iPhone launch before 2027, up from roughly 42 percent in mid-December. On Kalshi, 92 percent of traders expect a starting price of at least $1,800, with 65 percent anticipating $2,200 or more. The market's skepticism is not about whether Apple will enter the foldable space — it is about whether Apple will price the device in a way that broadens the category or simply reinforces it as a luxury for those who have already bought everything else.
Apple has never made a foldable iPhone. Samsung has been selling them for years. By conventional logic, Apple is late to the game—and lateness in consumer tech often means disadvantage. But Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst who has spent decades tracking Apple's supply chain movements, sees the situation differently. He told Benzinga that timing alone does not put the company at a strategic disadvantage, and his reasoning hinges on a simple observation: the premium foldable market hasn't actually taken off yet.
Android foldables remain a niche product, even among wealthy buyers. The category is still early, still under-penetrated. This means Apple hasn't missed a critical window so much as arrived at a moment when the window is still opening. The real question, Kuo argues, is not whether Apple is late, but whether it can execute better than the companies already in the space. And that execution, he believes, will come down to software and user interface design—areas where current foldable devices continue to stumble.
Kuo's point is straightforward: if Apple can deliver a foldable iPhone with software and UI that actually work, that make the larger screen feel natural rather than forced, consumers would embrace it. The device would need to remain portable, practical for daily use. But if Apple clears that bar, it could reset the entire category. A successful foldable iPhone wouldn't just be another product launch. It could trigger a new upgrade cycle in the premium segment and offer the smartphone industry a fresh source of growth after years of incremental improvements.
Samsung, which has been making foldables since 2019, struck an optimistic tone when asked about the market's direction. The company told Benzinga that foldables are entering an acceleration phase. Shipments are projected to surpass 20 million units in 2025. The devices themselves have improved dramatically—they're thinner, lighter, more durable. Samsung emphasized that consumers are increasingly drawn to what foldables enable: multitasking, large-screen productivity, AI-powered features. The novelty has worn off. The utility is becoming real.
Data from Counterpoint Research supports this narrative. Global foldable smartphone shipments rose 14 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2025, hitting a record quarterly high. The momentum was driven largely by Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold7 lineup. For the full year 2025, shipments are on pace for mid-teens annual growth. 2026 is expected to accelerate further as hardware matures and as Apple potentially enters the market at the premium end. Samsung has also introduced a Galaxy Z TriFold, a strategic test case designed to strengthen its technological leadership before wider commercial rollout.
The market itself is beginning to price in Apple's entry. On Polymarket, traders are now assigning a 76 percent probability that Apple will launch a foldable iPhone before 2027. That figure was roughly 42 percent in mid-December. The shift reflects growing confidence that the company will move forward with the product. Traders are also making specific bets about pricing. On Kalshi, there is broad agreement that a foldable iPhone would sit at the top of Apple's pricing ladder. About 92 percent of traders assign at least a $1,800 starting price. Eighty percent expect it to exceed $2,000. Roughly 65 percent believe pricing could reach $2,200 or higher.
These numbers reveal something important: the market is not skeptical about whether Apple will launch a foldable iPhone. It is skeptical about whether the company will price it affordably. The assumption is that Apple will enter the category as a premium product, a device for people who have already bought everything else. Whether that strategy works depends partly on execution, partly on whether the premium foldable market can sustain multiple players at the high end. Samsung is betting it can. Apple, if it launches, will be betting the same thing.
Notable Quotes
Android foldables still haven't become mainstream in the premium segment, suggesting the market remains early and under-penetrated.— Ming-Chi Kuo, TF International Securities analyst
Foldables are entering an acceleration phase, with newer devices thinner, lighter, and more durable, moving the category beyond novelty toward everyday usability.— Samsung Electronics statement to Benzinga
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
If Android foldables haven't gone mainstream yet, why should we believe Apple's version will be different?
Because Apple's strength has never been being first. It's being best at the things that matter to the people who can afford premium devices. Software and interface design are where foldables currently fail—they feel clunky, like the software wasn't designed for the form factor. If Apple can make that feel natural, that's a different product.
But Samsung has been iterating on this for years. Don't they have an advantage in hardware maturity?
They do. But maturity in hardware doesn't automatically translate to maturity in software. Samsung's devices are thinner and more durable now, which is real progress. But that's table stakes. The question is whether the experience of using a foldable feels inevitable or feels like a compromise.
The traders are pricing in a 76 percent chance of launch before 2027. That seems high. What's driving that confidence?
Supply chain signals, mostly. Kuo and others have been tracking component orders and manufacturing partnerships. When those pieces start aligning, the market takes notice. Also, Apple has been quiet about foldables for years, which often precedes a launch—they're not the company that announces things early.
And the pricing? $1,800 to $2,200 starting price seems extreme.
It's not extreme for Apple's premium segment. The iPhone Pro Max starts at $1,199. A foldable would be a step up in complexity and manufacturing cost. But more importantly, Apple is signaling that this is a luxury product, not a mainstream replacement. It's for people who want the largest possible screen in the smallest possible package.
Does Samsung see Apple's entry as a threat or validation?
They framed it as validation. New competitors help expand the category. But that's diplomatic language. What Samsung really cares about is maintaining leadership through continued innovation—which is why they're already testing a three-fold device. They're not waiting for Apple to set the pace.
So what actually changes if Apple launches a foldable iPhone?
The upgrade cycle resets. Right now, foldables are a niche within a niche. If Apple enters with a product that works, it becomes a legitimate category for the premium market. That's growth the smartphone industry hasn't seen in years.