In a season of contraction, when the global smartphone market faces its steepest shipment decline in recent memory, two of the industry's most consequential rivals are placing the same wager: that a phone which folds is the device that will make consumers believe in the future again. Apple, entering the foldable category for the first time on September 9 under its new CEO John Ternus, and Huawei, unveiling its ambitious trifold Mate XT 2 just two days prior, are not merely launching products — they are proposing answers to a market that has run out of easy questions. Whether the category can c
Apple's foldable iPhone debut offers lifeline to smartphone market facing 17% shipment decline
Apple is positioned to challenge Huawei and Samsung for leadership
Mark
So the smartphone market is actually shrinking this year? By 17 percent?
Mimi
Yes. Shipments are down significantly. Component costs have climbed, and consumers aren't upgrading as often. It's a real contraction.
Luke
But wait—is that 17 percent decline confirmed, or is that an analyst projection for 2026?
Mimi
It's a projection. The article says the market is "bracing for" a 17 percent decline. So it's expected, not yet measured.
Mark
And Apple thinks a foldable phone is the answer?
Mimi
Apple and Huawei both do. They're launching within two days of each other, betting that foldables will reignite interest and justify premium pricing.
Luke
The IDC analyst projects 17 million units for Apple by 2027 and 40 percent market share. But that's one firm's forecast, right? Not a consensus?
Mimi
Right. It's IDC's projection. Other analysts might have different numbers.
Mark
Why is Huawei's trifold design different from what Samsung does?
Mimi
Samsung folds once—you get two screen states. Huawei's Mate XT folds twice, creating three distinct configurations. It's more complex.
Luke
And Huawei is still a major player in foldables despite US sanctions?
Mimi
In Asia, yes. The sanctions have limited its global reach, but it's maintained strong market position in certain regions.
Mark
What does a successful Apple foldable actually mean for the industry?
Mimi
It could validate foldables as more than a luxury experiment. It could help manufacturers absorb rising component costs and give consumers a reason to upgrade.
Luke
But we won't know if it's successful until after September 9. Everything right now is expectation, not outcome.
El Pulso
- Global smartphone shipments are projected to fall 17% in 2026, leaving manufacturers scrambling for a product that can reignite consumer desire and justify premium prices.
- Soaring component costs are squeezing margins across the board, making the high-stakes bet on foldables feel less like ambition and more like necessity.
- Huawei fires first on September 7 with the Mate XT 2, a trifold device that folds twice into three screen configurations — a more daring form factor than anything Samsung has committed to at scale.
- Apple counters on September 9, with analysts at IDC projecting the company could ship over 17 million foldable iPhones by 2027 and claim 40% of the global foldable market — a figure that has already shifted competitor strategies.
- The dual launches mark a potential inflection point: if Apple's entry resonates, foldables graduate from niche curiosity to mainstream upgrade cycle; if it stumbles, the category's future dims considerably.
In a season of contraction, when the global smartphone market faces its steepest shipment decline in recent memory, two of the industry's most consequential rivals are placing the same wager: that a phone which folds is the device that will make consumers believe in the future again. Apple, entering the foldable category for the first time on September 9 under its new CEO John Ternus, and Huawei, unveiling its ambitious trifold Mate XT 2 just two days prior, are not merely launching products — they are proposing answers to a market that has run out of easy questions. Whether the category can carry the weight of an entire industry's recovery remains the defining uncertainty of this moment.
The global smartphone market is contracting sharply in 2026, with shipments expected to fall by 17 percent. Into this downturn, Apple and Huawei are each betting on foldable devices to reverse the slide — and their launches arrive within two days of each other.
Huawei moves first, unveiling the Mate XT 2 on September 7. An evolution of its trifold design, the device folds twice to create three distinct screen configurations — a more ambitious form factor than the single-fold approach most competitors have pursued. Despite US sanctions that have curtailed its global reach, Huawei has built real momentum in foldables, particularly across Asia.
Apple follows on September 9 with its first-ever foldable iPhone — a moment that also marks the public debut of new CEO John Ternus. The company spent years watching Samsung and Huawei experiment with the category before making its move. Analysts at IDC project Apple could ship more than 17 million foldable units by 2027, capturing roughly 40 percent of the global foldable market — a remarkable trajectory for a product in its first two years. IDC's Nabila Popal noted that Apple's entry has already altered the market's direction, reigniting interest in a category that had been losing momentum.
The stakes extend beyond either company. Rising component costs have made it harder for manufacturers to protect margins on conventional phones, and a thriving foldable market could help absorb those pressures while giving consumers a genuine reason to upgrade. For Apple, a successful foldable could also defend premium pricing in a segment that has grown increasingly commoditized.
What unfolds over the next two weeks will signal whether foldables can carry the smartphone industry's next growth chapter — or whether they remain an expensive experiment in search of a mass audience.
The global smartphone market is contracting sharply this year, with shipments expected to fall by 17 percent. Into this downturn, two of the world's largest phone makers are betting on a single product category to reverse the slide: foldable devices. Apple will unveil its first foldable iPhone on September 9, just two days after Huawei introduces the Mate XT 2, an upgraded version of its three-panel flagship device. The timing is no accident. Both companies are racing to capture momentum in a sector that has been losing ground to rising component costs and consumer hesitation.
Apple's entry into foldables represents a significant shift. The company has been cautious about the category for years, watching competitors like Samsung and Huawei experiment with the technology. Now, with the broader smartphone market struggling, Apple is making its move. The September 9 event will also mark the public debut of new CEO John Ternus, adding symbolic weight to what the company clearly views as a pivotal moment. Alongside the foldable, Apple is expected to refresh its standard iPhone lineup, but industry observers are focused almost entirely on the folding model.
Huawei's Mate XT 2 arrives first, on September 7. The device represents an evolution of Huawei's trifold design—a phone that folds twice, creating three distinct screen configurations. This is a more ambitious form factor than the single-fold devices Samsung and most competitors have pursued. Huawei has been building momentum in foldables for years, particularly in Asia, where the company remains a major player despite US sanctions that have constrained its global reach.
Analysts believe Apple's entry will fundamentally reshape the market. Nabila Popal, a senior research director at IDC, projects that Apple will ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones by 2027, capturing roughly 40 percent of the global foldable market. That would be a remarkable achievement for a product less than two years into its commercial life. The scale of Apple's manufacturing capability and its brand loyalty give it advantages that neither Huawei nor Samsung can easily match. Popal noted that Apple's move has already altered the market's trajectory, reigniting growth in a category that had been losing momentum.
The stakes are high for the entire industry. Component costs have surged, making it harder for manufacturers to maintain margins on traditional phones. A successful foldable market could help absorb those costs across a broader product portfolio and give consumers a reason to upgrade. For Apple, a foldable iPhone could also justify premium pricing in a market where high-end phones have become commoditized. For Huawei, the Mate XT 2 is a chance to cement its position as a technology leader in regions where it still has strong distribution, even as it remains largely shut out of Western markets.
What happens in the next two weeks will set the tone for the smartphone industry's recovery. If Apple's foldable resonates with consumers and reviewers, it could validate the category as more than a niche product. If it stumbles, the market may conclude that foldables remain a luxury curiosity rather than the future of mobile computing. Either way, the convergence of these two launches—Huawei's on September 7, Apple's on September 9—marks a turning point for an industry that has been searching for its next growth engine.
Citas Notables
Apple's entry into the foldable market has fundamentally altered the market's trajectory.— Nabila Popal, senior research director, IDC
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