Every autumn Apple gathers the world's attention around a new handset, and this year that gathering carries a quieter question than usual: whether a company built on one shape of device can carry its long-awaited foldable into the market under a new leader. John Ternus takes the stage as chief executive for the first time, with a device many have waited years to see, while investors weigh the familiar pattern of a brief stumble after the reveal and a recovery that often follows within weeks. The product is a bet on luxury and scarcity in a category that is still a small corner of the phone wor
Apple's First Foldable iPhone: What Analysts Say Could Move the Stock
Cook is also leaving big shoes, though of a different type
Mark
Why does a product launch matter so much for the share price?
Mimi
Because the iPhone is the core business, and this launch comes with a new CEO and a new kind of device. Analysts say investors will look at pricing, Siri AI adoption and foldable demand.
Mark
What does history suggest happens to the stock?
Mimi
Bank of America's Wamsi Mohan says a small sell-the-news dip is typical, then recovery over one to two months. Shares gained in the 60 days after iPhone reveals about 17 times since 2007.
Luke
That's a pattern, not a promise. The source doesn't say how many launches there were in total, so 17 gains can't be turned into a hit rate.
Mark
And the foldable itself? It's rumored at $2,000 to $2,500.
Mimi
Nabila Popal of IDC expects over $45 billion in revenue by the end of next year, and says Apple's exclusivity will carry it.
Luke
Keep in mind that's one analyst's estimate. The price comes from reports, and Apple hasn't confirmed the device exists. Popal herself says foldables remain a single-digit share of the market.
Mark
So what's the Ternus angle?
Mimi
Cook's tenure delivered a 2,300% share gain, or 2,736% with dividends. That's the bar he inherits.
Luke
Fair, but past returns don't say what Ternus will deliver. This is analysis ahead of the event, and nothing has been announced yet.
Le Pouls
- Apple's first foldable iPhone, reportedly priced between $2,000 and $2,500, arrives at a moment when the company's new chief executive faces his first major public test.
- Analysts expect shares to dip briefly on the sell-the-news reaction, and the market is already measuring the size of the price increases.
- Investors are tracking how quickly Siri AI features get adopted and what Apple says about demand for a category that still holds only a single-digit share of smartphones.
- Projections of more than $45 billion in foldable revenue by the end of next year keep the pressure high, with the stock's recovery window of one to two months now the real measure of success.
Every autumn Apple gathers the world's attention around a new handset, and this year that gathering carries a quieter question than usual: whether a company built on one shape of device can carry its long-awaited foldable into the market under a new leader. John Ternus takes the stage as chief executive for the first time, with a device many have waited years to see, while investors weigh the familiar pattern of a brief stumble after the reveal and a recovery that often follows within weeks. The product is a bet on luxury and scarcity in a category that is still a small corner of the phone world, and its reception will say something about how the next chapter of this company's story reads.
Apple holds its annual product event today, and for the first time the stage belongs to John Ternus as chief executive. Reports suggest the company may finally show its first foldable iPhone, a device people have waited years to see, though Apple has not confirmed it.
Investors are watching the stock as closely as the hardware. Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan expects a modest sell-the-news dip right after the event, followed by a recovery over the next one to two months. Historically, Apple shares have risen in the 60 days after an iPhone reveal about 17 times since 2007, with the sharpest gain coming in 2019.
The foldable is this year's novelty, reportedly priced around $2,000 to $2,500. IDC's Nabila Popal believes Apple's skill at building exclusivity and luxury will keep demand strong, and she projects over $45 billion in revenue by the end of next year, even as foldables remain a small slice of the market.
The longer story frames Ternus's task. Under Tim Cook, Apple shares rose about 2,300%, and far more once dividends are included. Analysts note that Cook filled big shoes in his own way, and that Ternus now must do the same. The first real test comes in the days after the event, as pricing, foldable demand and the stock's post-launch behavior come into view.
Apple holds its annual product event today, and for the first time the stage belongs to John Ternus as chief executive. The company is expected to unveil its next-generation iPhones. Apple has not confirmed it, but reports and leaks suggest it may also show its first foldable iPhone, a device people have waited years to see.
Investors are watching the stock as closely as the hardware. Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan, quoted by Yahoo Finance on Tuesday, said Apple shares typically see a modest sell-the-news reaction right after a launch event. They then tend to recover over the following one to two months.
Mohan's research gives that pattern some weight. Since the first iPhone arrived in 2007, Apple shares have gained in the 60 days after an iPhone reveal about 17 times. The sharpest case came in 2019, when the stock rose 20% in the 60 days after the iPhone 11 was revealed.
The foldable is the novelty this year. Reports put its price at roughly $2,000 to $2,500, and say it would fold open like a passport. Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, told Reuters that even at $2,500 the phone should sell strongly, because Apple is skilled at creating an aura of exclusivity, luxury and scarcity. She expects it to bring in more than $45 billion in revenue by the end of next year. She also noted that foldables as a category remain a single-digit share of the smartphone market.
Mohan named what he thinks will drive the reaction this time: how large the price increases are, how well Siri AI features are adopted, and what Apple says about foldable demand.
The stock arrives at the event in good shape. Apple shares are up 3% over the past month and 17% so far in 2026. They have gained 35% over the past year and 112% over five years.
The longer view frames Ternus's task. Under Tim Cook, Apple shares rose 2,300%. Bloomberg reported that on a total-return basis, with dividends included, the gain was 2,736%. Over the same period the S&P 500 rose 769% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1,512%. Chris Brigati, chief investment officer at SWBC, told Bloomberg that Steve Jobs left huge shoes to fill, and that Cook is also leaving big shoes, though of a different type, given his very different approach to expanding the company's growth engines.
Apple also remains Warren Buffett's top stock pick. He once joked that Cook made more money for Berkshire Hathaway shareholders than he ever did as CEO of the iPhone maker.
The first test for Ternus comes in the days after the event. Watch for the pricing details, any commentary on foldable demand, and how the stock behaves through the expected post-launch dip.
Citations marquantes
Even with a $2,500 price tag, the Apple foldable is going to fly off the shelves, especially because Apple is excellent at creating an aura of exclusivity, luxury, and scarcity.— Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, to Reuters
Investor reaction will likely depend on the magnitude of price increases, adoption of Siri AI features and commentary on foldable demand.— Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America analyst, via Yahoo Finance
Envie de l'histoire complète ?
Lire l'original sur The Economic Times ↗
Business