Beneath the ice of East Antarctica, a vast and largely unvisited basin holds enough frozen water to redraw the coastlines of human civilization — yet science has barely begun to look. The Wilkes Subglacial Basin, capable of raising global sea levels by three to four meters, remains the least explored region on a continent already defined by its remoteness. A new international review, led by glaciologist Matt King and co-authored by researchers from fourteen countries, confronts this paradox directly: the place most consequential to humanity's coastal future is the one we understand least. The
Antarctica's Least-Known Region Could Raise Sea Levels 13 Feet, Scientists Warn
Potential future impacts on coastal communities and vulnerable infrastructure globally if the basin undergoes large-scale retreat.
The last unexplored place in Antarctica holds the keys to our coasts
Mark
So this basin—it's just ice sitting there, right? Why does it matter so much more than other parts of Antarctica?
Mimi
Because of the sheer volume and what it's sitting on. Three to four meters of sea-level rise is not incremental. That's transformative for every coast on Earth. And it's in a particularly vulnerable position—it's grounded below sea level, which means warm ocean water can reach the underside of the ice.
Luke
But we don't actually know how fast it would melt, correct? The review says there are major gaps in observations.
Mimi
Exactly. That's the whole point. We have geological evidence it retreated before, but we can't predict the timeline or the trigger.
Mark
How is it possible that no one has been there? Antarctica is explored.
Mimi
Most Antarctic research happens on the coast or the plateau. The Wilkes Basin is interior, difficult to reach, and until recently, it wasn't clear how urgent it was to study it.
Luke
And now it is urgent because of climate change. But I want to be careful here—the review calls for study, not because we know it's collapsing, but because we don't know enough to rule it out.
Mimi
Right. The alarm is about uncertainty, not confirmed collapse. But uncertainty about a region that could raise sea levels 13 feet is itself alarming.
Mark
What would a research campaign actually look like?
Mimi
Ships mapping the seafloor, ocean buoys measuring temperature and currents, improved satellite data, better ice-sheet models. It's expensive and logistically hard, but it's doable.
Luke
And it requires international cooperation, which the review emphasizes. No single country can do this alone.
Mark
How long would it take to get real answers?
Mimi
That depends on funding and political will. Years, probably. Maybe a decade to get a much clearer picture.
Il Polso
- A basin holding enough ice to submerge major coastal cities worldwide has never had a research vessel come within 93 miles of its primary glacier outlet.
- Geological records confirm the Wilkes Basin has retreated dramatically during past warm periods — a historical warning that scientists cannot yet translate into reliable predictions.
- Critical data gaps are severe: the seafloor is unmapped, ocean temperatures near the basin are poorly documented, and no living scientist has directly studied the region.
- A review co-authored by researchers from fourteen countries is sounding the alarm, calling for an urgent, coordinated international campaign to map, observe, and model the basin.
- Without this knowledge, coastal communities from the Pacific to the Atlantic remain exposed to a risk they cannot yet quantify or prepare for.
Beneath the ice of East Antarctica, a vast and largely unvisited basin holds enough frozen water to redraw the coastlines of human civilization — yet science has barely begun to look. The Wilkes Subglacial Basin, capable of raising global sea levels by three to four meters, remains the least explored region on a continent already defined by its remoteness. A new international review, led by glaciologist Matt King and co-authored by researchers from fourteen countries, confronts this paradox directly: the place most consequential to humanity's coastal future is the one we understand least. The call, now, is for coordinated global science before the ice renders the question moot.
Beneath East Antarctica lies a region that could reshape human geography more profoundly than almost any force on Earth — and science has barely touched it. The Wilkes Subglacial Basin holds enough ancient ice to raise global sea levels by three to four meters, enough to submerge significant portions of every major coastal city on the planet. Yet no research vessel has come within 93 miles of the Cook Glacier, one of its critical outlets. The seafloor is unmapped. The ocean conditions that might trigger melting remain poorly documented.
Glaciologist Matt King of the University of Tasmania led a new review published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, co-authored by researchers from fourteen countries, that attempts to catalog what is actually known about this consequential blank spot. The answer is sobering. Knowledge gaps are so severe that scientists cannot say with confidence how fast the ice might retreat, or what warming threshold could trigger a collapse. As King noted, it is difficult to find a living scientist who has been there at all.
The geological record, however, offers a warning. During past warm periods, the Wilkes Basin retreated substantially — evidence that the ice filling it today is neither immobile nor stable. The paradox is stark: the place with perhaps the greatest influence on future sea levels is the least explored region in Antarctica.
The review calls for an urgent, coordinated international campaign — mapping the seafloor, improving ocean observations, refining ice-sheet models, and narrowing the uncertainty that clouds current predictions. King framed the stakes in human terms: better understanding this region means better preparation for coastal communities and vulnerable infrastructure across Australia, the Pacific, and beyond. The Wilkes Basin sits within Australian Antarctic Territory, but its fate belongs to everyone. The review is a call to mount an expedition of science before the ice decides the question on its own.
Beneath the ice of East Antarctica lies a region that could reshape human geography as profoundly as any force on Earth—yet it remains almost entirely unknown to science. The Wilkes Subglacial Basin, a vast depression filled with ancient ice, holds enough frozen water to raise global sea levels by three to four meters. That is ten to thirteen feet. For perspective: a rise of that magnitude would submerge significant portions of every major coastal city on the planet. And almost no one has been there to study it.
Matt King, a glaciologist at the University of Tasmania and chief investigator at the Australian Center for Excellence in Antarctic Science, led a new review published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment that attempts to catalog what scientists actually know about this consequential blank spot on the map. The answer is: not much. No research vessel has ever come within 93 miles of the Cook Glacier, one of the basin's critical outlets. The seafloor remains unmapped. The ocean conditions that might trigger melting are poorly documented. The gaps in basic observational data are so severe that scientists cannot yet say with confidence how fast the ice might retreat or what warming threshold could set off a collapse.
Yet the geological record offers a warning. During past warm periods in Earth's history, the Wilkes Basin underwent substantial retreat. The ice that fills it today is not immobile or stable—it has moved before, dramatically, in response to climate shifts. King put it plainly: "The evidence from past warm periods is enough to ring an alarm bell that this is a region we need to understand much better, but it's hard to find a living scientist who's been there." The paradox is stark. A place with perhaps the greatest influence on future sea levels remains the least explored region in Antarctica, a continent already defined by remoteness and difficulty.
The review, authored by researchers from fourteen countries, calls for an urgent coordinated international campaign to close these knowledge gaps. The work needed is straightforward in concept but enormous in scope: map the seafloor, improve observations of ocean temperature and currents, refine ice-sheet models, and reduce the uncertainty that currently clouds predictions of how the basin will respond to continued warming. King framed the stakes not as an abstract scientific problem but as a question of human preparedness. "If we can better understand this region and its trajectory more accurately, we'll be better prepared for future sea-level rise, climate impacts and the consequences for coastal communities and vulnerable infrastructure in Australia, the Pacific and around the world."
The Wilkes Basin sits largely within Australian Antarctic Territory, but its fate belongs to everyone. Coastal cities from Miami to Shanghai to Jakarta depend on knowing what is happening in places most of us will never see. Right now, that knowledge is incomplete. The review is a call to change that—to mount an expedition of science before the ice decides the question for us.
Citazioni salienti
The Wilkes Subglacial Basin is arguably the last unexplored place in Antarctica. No ship has ever been within 150 kilometers of the front of one of the key glaciers, the Cook Glacier.— Matt King, University of Tasmania
The evidence from past warm periods is enough to ring an alarm bell that this is a region we need to understand much better, but it's hard to find a living scientist who's been there.— Matt King
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