Silent voters and an underlying shift in public mood could yet favor the opposition
On the morning of May 4th, 2026, Assam's forty counting centers began the solemn work of translating democratic will into political reality, as 722 candidates across 126 constituencies awaited the verdict of electronic machines sealed since polling day. Exit polls from seven agencies had already drawn a near-unanimous portrait of a BJP-led NDA triumph, projecting a historic third consecutive mandate for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's government. Yet beneath the arithmetic of seats and margins lay unresolved questions about polarization, belonging, and the terms on which Assam's diverse communities would be governed in the years ahead.
- Seven independent exit poll agencies converged on the same projection — BJP-NDA winning 85 to 101 seats — creating an atmosphere of near-certainty before a single machine had been unsealed.
- BJP state president Dilip Saikia predicted his party alone would claim over eighty seats, while Union ministers in Delhi declared an 'unprecedented' NDA sweep, signaling the party's confidence had crossed into triumphalism.
- Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi quietly pushed back, placing his hopes in 'silent voters' whose preferences pollsters never captured — a last argument for uncertainty in a narrative that had already been written.
- Chief Minister Sarma's inflammatory remarks about 'Miyas' and opposition allegations of voter suppression during electoral roll revisions cast a shadow over the counting, raising the question of what kind of mandate was actually being measured.
- As party agents filed into strong rooms and the machines prepared to speak, the real suspense had shifted from outcome to consequence — not whether the BJP would win, but what the scale of that victory would demand of those who held it.
Assam's May 4th counting day arrived under heightened security, with forty centers across thirty-five districts preparing to unseal the electronic voting machines holding the fates of 722 candidates competing for 126 assembly seats. Party agents gathered at strong rooms from early morning, including at the Maniram Dewan Trade Centre in Guwahati, where representatives from rival camps settled in to wait for the ballots to speak.
The exit polls had already offered their answer. Seven survey agencies — Axis My India, Matrize, JVC, People's Pulse, Kamakhya Analytics, Poll Diary, and People's Insight — each projected the BJP-led NDA winning between 85 and 101 seats, with the Congress-led opposition confined to 15 to 39. Smaller parties, including the AIUDF, were expected to remain in single digits. A BJP victory of this scale would mark a historic third consecutive term in Assam, consolidating the party's grip on a state central to its national strategy.
The BJP entered counting day with open confidence. State president Dilip Saikia predicted his party alone would win over eighty of the ninety seats it contested, while Chief Minister Sarma and Saikia held overnight virtual reviews with candidates and leaders. Union ministers in Delhi went further, forecasting an 'unprecedented' NDA sweep across all states voting simultaneously. Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi offered a quieter resistance, arguing that silent voters and a hidden shift in public mood could yet confound the projections — though the party staged no public rallies, its posture one of waiting rather than momentum.
Beneath the counting lay a sharper tension. Sarma's recent remarks about 'Miyas' — Bengali-origin Muslims in Assam — and opposition allegations of deliberate voter suppression during electoral roll revisions had opened wounds that no result would close. These controversies pointed to enduring questions about who belongs in Assam's democracy and how power, once confirmed, would be exercised toward those on its margins.
As the morning advanced and the machines prepared to deliver their verdict, the state's real uncertainty had already narrowed: not whether the BJP would win, but what the shape of that victory would mean for the political landscape that followed.
Assam woke on May 4th to the sound of heightened security and the weight of electoral finality. Across the state, forty counting centers spread through thirty-five districts were preparing to unseal electronic voting machines that held the fates of 722 candidates competing for 126 assembly seats. By eight in the morning, party agents would begin arriving at strong rooms—the one at Maniram Dewan Trade Centre in Guwahati filling with representatives from different political camps, all waiting for the machines to open and the ballots to speak.
The exit polls had already spoken, and they spoke in one voice. Seven different survey agencies projected the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance winning between 85 and 101 seats, while the Congress-led opposition alliance trailed far behind at 15 to 39 seats. Axis My India, Matrize, JVC, People's Pulse, Kamakhya Analytics, Poll Diary, and People's Insight—each one told essentially the same story. The smaller players, including the All India United Democratic Front, were expected to remain in single digits. If the exit polls held, the BJP would secure a historic third consecutive victory in Assam, a feat that would cement the party's dominance in a state that has become central to its national political strategy.
The BJP came to counting day radiating confidence. Dilip Saikia, the state party president, declared that the BJP alone expected to win more than eighty of the ninety seats it had contested, suggesting the full alliance could approach the hundred-seat mark. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Saikia held virtual review meetings with candidates and party leaders through the night, assessing their readiness. Pradyut Bordoloi, the BJP candidate from Dispur, told reporters that the mood across Assam was unmistakable—people had voted overwhelmingly for the BJP and its allies, and by evening, Assam would have delivered a firm mandate for another Sarma-led government. Union ministers Piyush Goyal and Arjun Ram Meghwal issued statements from Delhi predicting not just victory in Assam but an "unprecedented" NDA sweep across multiple states going to polls.
The Congress, by contrast, kept its public face subdued. Gaurav Gogoi, the party's state leader, rejected both the exit poll projections and the BJP's triumphalism. He argued that "silent voters"—those who do not declare their preferences to pollsters—and an underlying shift in public mood could yet favor the opposition when the actual votes were counted. The Congress held internal strategy meetings rather than staging public rallies, a posture of quiet resistance rather than confident momentum.
But beneath the mechanical business of vote counting lay a sharper political wound. Chief Minister Sarma's recent remarks about "Miyas"—a term used to describe Bengali-origin Muslims in Assam—and his framing of electoral politics around polarization had triggered a major row. The opposition accused the BJP of attempting voter suppression during the electoral roll revision process, a charge that pointed to deeper questions about who gets counted and who gets heard in Assam's democracy. These tensions would not disappear once the counting was done; they would likely define the political landscape of whatever government emerged.
As the morning progressed and agents took their positions at the counting centers, the state held its breath. The exit polls had drawn their conclusion. The machines were about to deliver the verdict. What remained uncertain was not whether the BJP would win—the numbers suggested that outcome was nearly certain—but what the margin of victory would mean for Assam's political future, and whether the controversies that had shadowed the campaign would reshape how power was exercised once the results were final.
Notable Quotes
The counting of votes is going to start very soon now. You can feel it throughout Assam that people have voted overwhelmingly for the BJP and BJP-led NDA.— Pradyut Bordoloi, BJP candidate from Dispur
Silent voters and an underlying shift in public mood could favour the Opposition when votes are counted.— Gaurav Gogoi, Assam Congress leader
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a third consecutive victory matter so much to the BJP in Assam specifically?
Assam is the gateway to the Northeast. If the BJP can hold it decisively, it signals that their model of politics works even in states with complex religious and ethnic demographics. A hat-trick proves it's not a fluke.
The exit polls are remarkably consistent. Does that mean the result is already decided?
Exit polls are educated guesses, not prophecy. But when seven different agencies point the same direction, the margin of error shrinks. What's interesting is how narrow the Congress's range is—they're not projected to crack even forty seats in any scenario.
Gogoi's talk of "silent voters" sounds like he's preparing an excuse.
Maybe. But there's something real there too. Voters who don't tell pollsters the truth, or who change their minds in the booth, do exist. The question is whether there are enough of them to matter.
What about Sarma's "Miyas" comments? Does that affect the count?
The count itself is mechanical—machines don't care about rhetoric. But those comments reveal what's underneath the victory narrative. If the BJP wins by polarizing voters, that's a different kind of mandate than winning on development or governance.
So the real story isn't the numbers, it's what they mean?
Exactly. The exit polls tell you who won. The comments about polarization and voter suppression tell you how they won, and what that victory will cost.