All Blacks selection: Hannah rises, Kirifi's path narrows, and Newell's scrum role grows in key tour

The last All Blacks squad of the year has been named for the northern tour, and Liam Napier's reading of it is that the interesting stories sit in the margins: who has risen, who has been shut out, and where the team looks thin.

Jamie Hannah is the biggest mover. His rise pushes Canterbury teammate Darry to the fringe, with head coach Dave Rennie suggesting Hannah brings more punch in contact. Tuipulotu has reason to be nervous as well. A calf complaint and a lack of recent match time left the 33-year-old veteran vulnerable, and he now needs an injury to get back into the squad. He was dominant against Ireland at Eden Park in July, but his impact faded in South Africa. An off-season spent preparing his body for the Blues could return him to the conversation, though he needs to produce his consistent best next year.

Emoni Narawa's omission remains curious. He has had limited chances to show his skills and has now been squeezed out by Chay Fihaki, whose aerial ability and kicking suit the test game, although his defence is a concern. Narawa will not find a recall easy. Caleb Clarke and Leroy Carter return next year, and Caleb Tangitau and Kyren Taumoefolau are waiting behind them.

The bleakest outlook belongs to Du'Plessis Kirifi. Ardie Savea, Luke Jacobson, Shannon Frizell and Simon Parker are unavailable, yet with Anton Segner returning and Christian Lio-Willie included for the first time this season, Kirifi is still well down the order. Lio-Willie earned his call-up through form for the Crusaders and Otago and fits Rennie's workrate mould, though he does not add size to an undersized loose forward group. Semisi Ta'eiloa is heftier but raw, and needs to improve his fitness at the Hurricanes next season. Kirifi played eight times for the All Blacks under Scott Robertson, mostly off the bench. Segner's rise, and a belief that Kirifi concedes too many breakdown penalties, have blocked him. Last year he turned down a lucrative Japanese offer to chase his All Blacks dream. With the World Cup looking an unlikely prospect, Napier suggests the time has probably come to consider offshore options beyond next year's Super Rugby Pacific campaign.

The set piece will be under scrutiny as the team heads north. A stable platform against the Wallabies is one thing; repeating it against Scotland, England and possibly France in winter conditions is another. Scrum problems in South Africa were fixed during the Bledisloe sweep, but Tyrel Lomax is out with an ongoing neck concern, which leaves tighthead depth in question. Fletcher Newell is usually rock solid. Behind him are Pasilio Tosi, who struggled at scrum time in South Africa, and Saula Ma'u, a 140kg newcomer with long-term scrummaging upside but much to learn as a test rookie. Napier ranks Cam Roigard and Jordie Barrett as the team's most irreplaceable figures, but says that on this tour Newell's importance cannot be overstated.

The other talking point is Fainga'anuku, whose selection puts a 6-2 bench firmly on the table. The All Blacks have been wary of carrying one fewer back among the reserves; South Africa were exposed by their lack of outside back cover in the first Greatest Rivalry series loss at Ellis Park. Since returning from France, Fainga'anuku has played openside flanker seven times, midfield ten times and wing four times. He is named among the loose forwards but can cover all those spots, which could free a place for another forward against bigger packs such as England. Napier places him in the company of Andre Esterhuizen, Kwagga Smith, Ben Earle, Fiji's Levani Botia and Irish hooker Dan Sheehan, who played 80 minutes at No 8 for Leinster last weekend. He warns that Fainga'anuku risks being labelled versatile without owning a position, but as squads shrink, his point of difference could prove undeniable. Paired with Asafo Aumua off the bench, he is a powerful prospect.

Finally, the long injury list postpones the selection cull. Savea, Frizell, Clarke, Jacobson, Tamati Williams and Ruben Love return when fit, and Samisoni Taukei'aho, Lomax and Carter are highly likely to be recalled too. That would force nine players out of this touring group. Rennie has rewarded form, so Lio-Willie, Fihaki, Ma'u, George Bell, Hannah, Fehi Fineanganofo, Josh Jacomb, Ethan Blackadder and Xavier Numia have this tour to seize their chances before the returning players arrive.