Does SoftBank see the peak?
In the autumn of 2025, SoftBank's balance sheet became a mirror held up to the age of artificial intelligence — reflecting both the extraordinary wealth that belief in a technology can conjure and the quiet anxiety that follows when valuations outrun reality. The Japanese conglomerate doubled its quarterly profit to 2.5 trillion yen on the rising tide of AI-related stocks, yet simultaneously sold nearly six billion dollars in Nvidia shares at the very moment the chipmaker reached a historic five-trillion-dollar valuation. It is the oldest tension in the history of markets: the true believer who hedges, the visionary who quietly takes some chips off the table.
- SoftBank's net profit more than doubled to 2.5 trillion yen in a single quarter, a windfall almost entirely conjured by the soaring paper value of AI-related holdings, particularly its stake in OpenAI.
- The company then sold $5.8 billion in Nvidia shares just as the chipmaker crossed a $5 trillion valuation — a move that whispers caution even as founder Masayoshi Son publicly preaches the gospel of artificial superintelligence.
- Analysts at Jefferies warn that SoftBank's 140-percent stock surge in 2025 rests on fragile ground: OpenAI's enterprise footprint remains small, its nonprofit-to-profit transition is unresolved, and rivals like Google and Anthropic are closing in fast.
- The Nasdaq's 25-percent climb since May and a sharp sell-off triggered by valuation fears last week have revived the specter of the dot-com collapse, when markets priced in a future that arrived far later — and far differently — than expected.
- SoftBank's $5.4 billion acquisition of ABB Robotics signals a quiet pivot toward physical AI, a hedge against the possibility that software euphoria alone cannot sustain the valuations the market has already written into the future.
SoftBank's latest earnings announcement arrived like a fever chart for the global AI moment. The Japanese tech conglomerate posted a net profit of 2.5 trillion yen — roughly $16.2 billion — for the quarter ending in September, more than doubling its year-earlier result. The source of that windfall was singular: the surging value of AI-related stocks, anchored above all by the company's substantial stake in OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT and the symbolic heart of the current boom.
Yet even as the numbers were celebrated, SoftBank was moving quietly in the other direction. In October, after the quarter closed, the company sold $5.8 billion worth of Nvidia shares — a striking decision given that the chipmaker had just become the first company in history to breach a $5 trillion valuation. The sale raises an unspoken question about whether one of the world's most seasoned technology investors senses a ceiling approaching.
Founder Masayoshi Son, 68, is no skeptic. He speaks with conviction about artificial superintelligence arriving soon, and in January stood beside President Trump to announce the Stargate project — a $500 billion infrastructure initiative with OpenAI and Oracle to build America's AI backbone. OpenAI alone has signed roughly $1 trillion in infrastructure deals this year. Son believes. And yet his company is selling.
The broader market reflects the same unresolved tension. The Nasdaq has climbed 25 percent since May on a cascade of AI deals and collective belief in technological transformation. But a brief eruption of valuation concerns last week triggered a sharp sell-off, and the ghost of the dot-com collapse — when internet stocks soared on promise, then fell spectacularly — haunts every serious analyst's thinking. Jefferies flagged that SoftBank's own stock has surged over 140 percent in 2025, while noting that OpenAI's enterprise market share remains small, its corporate restructuring unresolved, and competition from Google, Anthropic, and others intensifying.
SoftBank's recent acquisition of ABB Robotics for $5.4 billion adds another layer of meaning. Framed as a move toward physical AI — robots and machines rather than pure software — it reads as a hedge: an acknowledgment that the future the market is already pricing in may take longer to arrive than the current euphoria suggests.
SoftBank Group's earnings announcement this week laid bare the intoxicating power of artificial intelligence fever in global markets. The Japanese tech conglomerate reported a net profit of 2.5 trillion yen—roughly $16.2 billion—for the three months ending in September, more than doubling the 1.2 trillion yen it earned in the same quarter a year earlier. The entire windfall traces back to one thing: the soaring value of AI-related stocks, and most crucially, the company's substantial stake in OpenAI, the ChatGPT maker that has become the symbolic center of the AI boom.
Yet even as SoftBank celebrated these numbers, the company was quietly hedging its bets. In October, after the quarter closed, SoftBank sold $5.8 billion worth of Nvidia shares. The timing is telling. Nvidia, the chipmaker whose processors power the artificial intelligence systems everyone is suddenly desperate to build, had just become the world's first company to breach a $5 trillion valuation. That milestone itself signals how far the enthusiasm has run. The sale of such a massive stake by one of the world's savviest tech investors raises an unspoken question: does SoftBank see the peak?
The company's founder, Masayoshi Son, is 68 years old and has spent decades betting on technological revolutions. He speaks with genuine conviction about artificial superintelligence arriving soon, about the medicines and inventions it will unlock. In January, he stood beside President Donald Trump at the White House to announce the Stargate project—a $500 billion infrastructure push led jointly by SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle to build the computational backbone for advanced AI systems across America. OpenAI alone has signed roughly $1 trillion in infrastructure deals this year, including a $300 billion agreement with Oracle. Son is not a skeptic. Yet his company is selling Nvidia stock while the world is still in the grip of AI euphoria.
The broader market tells a similar story of exuberance colliding with doubt. The Nasdaq, heavy with technology stocks, has climbed 25 percent since May. That surge has been fueled by a cascade of multi-billion-dollar deals and the simple belief that AI will reshape everything. But last week, when concerns about inflated valuations briefly surfaced, markets sold off sharply. The parallel to the dot-com bubble—when internet stocks soared on promise rather than profit, then collapsed spectacularly—haunts every serious analyst's thinking.
SoftBank itself is a creature of volatile markets. Its earnings swing wildly because the company invests heavily in startups and semiconductor firms whose stock prices can move dramatically. This quarter's profit surge is real, but it is also a function of timing and valuation, not necessarily underlying business strength. Jefferies, the equity research firm, noted last month that SoftBank stock has surged more than 140 percent so far in 2025, driven largely by excitement about the company's OpenAI exposure. But the same analysts flagged serious cautions: OpenAI's presence in the enterprise market remains tiny, its transition from nonprofit to for-profit structure remains unresolved, and its relationship with Microsoft—which has poured tens of billions into the company—continues to evolve in unpredictable ways. Google, Anthropic, and other competitors are investing heavily, fragmenting the landscape.
SoftBank is also making other moves that suggest a diversification of faith. The company announced last month it would acquire ABB Robotics, the Swiss-Swedish firm, for nearly $5.4 billion. The purchase is framed as part of a pivot toward physical AI—robots and machines, not just software and algorithms. It is a hedge, in other words, against the possibility that the current AI boom, like so many before it, might be pricing in a future that takes longer to arrive than the market believes.
Notable Quotes
While OpenAI has strong consumer visibility, its share in the enterprise market is tiny. Its transition from non-profit to for-profit remains unresolved, and its relationship with Microsoft is still evolving.— Jefferies equity research
Artificial superintelligence is on the horizon, which will herald a technological revolution with new inventions and medicine.— Masayoshi Son, SoftBank founder
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would SoftBank sell $5.8 billion in Nvidia stock if the founder is so bullish on AI?
Because Masayoshi Son can believe in the long-term revolution while still recognizing that current prices have gotten ahead of themselves. Selling at the peak is different from losing faith in the technology.
Is this the dot-com bubble happening again?
The parallels are real—the euphoria, the multi-billion-dollar deals, the sense that everything will change. But we don't know yet. The difference is that AI actually works. The question is whether it's worth what people are paying for it right now.
What does the ABB Robotics acquisition tell us?
It tells us SoftBank is hedging. If the software AI boom cools, physical AI—robots, machines—might be where the real value is. It's a bet on the technology, but a more diversified one.
OpenAI has a tiny enterprise market share. Isn't that a red flag?
It is. Consumer enthusiasm doesn't always translate to business revenue. OpenAI is still figuring out how to make money from enterprises, and Microsoft is its primary partner. That relationship could shift.
So SoftBank made $16 billion this quarter on paper. Is that real money?
It's real in the sense that the stock valuations are real—for now. But it's also a function of timing. If those AI stocks fall 30 percent, the profit evaporates. That's why the company is selling Nvidia shares.