After Midterm Losses, Trump's Shifting Iran Signals Leave Mideast Diplomats in Limbo

In the days since Republicans took a beating in last week's midterm elections, President Donald Trump has said a great deal about where the eight-month-old Iran war goes next, and much of it points in different directions. In exchanges with reporters, broadcast interviews and social media posts, he has stepped back from ordering more strikes while also stepping back from more talks with Iranian negotiators.

The day after the election, Trump acknowledged that the war, and the global economic turmoil it has caused, bore some responsibility for his party's losses. He maintained that it was still the right thing to do. At the start of this week he met Qatar's prime minister at the White House, then told reporters he thought it highly unlikely he would need to order new major strikes, saying the war "militarily is effectively over."

By Thursday the tone had changed again. Trump questioned whether he needed to hurry toward an endgame, declared that the US no longer needs a deal with Tehran, and directed Vice President JD Vance to give his "complete and total attention" to the administration's domestic anti-fraud campaign. Vance had been Trump's chief negotiator in the earlier peace talks. Trump also told Iran the US military is "locked and loaded" and watching Pickaxe Mountain, a site tied to Iran's nuclear programme, for signs of activity. "If something does not work out, I would not hesitate to act," he told conservative broadcaster Hugh Hewitt.

Qatar, the chief mediator, is working toward an interim agreement that would restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the passage for Persian Gulf oil and natural gas, while leaving room for further US-Iran discussions. Two Middle East diplomats familiar with the process, speaking anonymously because of its sensitivity, said things looked on track earlier this week after the Qatari prime minister's meeting. Thursday's post, they said, created a sense of limbo. One wondered why Trump seemed to be sidelining Vance, who was sceptical about launching the war but ultimately backed it. The other described the peace push as a holding pattern, with mediators and Iranians unsure whether Trump has abandoned a negotiated deal or is posturing after the midterms cost his party control of Congress.

A person familiar with the matter, also anonymous, offered more context. Vance had been weighing a return to talks with senior Iranian negotiators, and Trump knew it. His post came the morning after The Wall Street Journal reported Vance was considering resuming talks. According to this person, Trump believes the Iranians are not acting in good faith. He is also increasingly confident he can credibly claim to have met his military objectives. With oil shipments through Hormuz near prewar levels, he could leave Gulf countries to negotiate with Iran over governing the waterway. Passage is still risky, though: the United Nations reports October had the most incidents against commercial ships there since February.

The White House declined to comment directly on Trump's post-election rhetoric. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to the Federalist Society on Friday evening, said the economic pain being inflicted on Iran is so great that military action is unnecessary. Earlier in the week he said the US does not oppose mediators continuing, and that Trump would back a deal, "but it's not going to be a bad deal." Democratic Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, at his party's post-election gathering in Denver, said Trump is acting like an arsonist who set foreign policy ablaze and now wants to walk away.

Iran has not softened. It will not discuss its nuclear programme until the US accepts several core conditions it wants in any ceasefire, while Trump insists the nuclear dispute be settled in any deal. Deputy UN ambassador Gholamhossein Darzi told the Security Council on Friday that Iran "has never closed the door to diplomacy," but would answer any renewed US or Israeli bombing with "an immediate and decisive response."

Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy expects the stalemate over Hormuz to last, along with the month-long US naval blockade curbing Iranian crude exports. He called patience and pressure the most sensible path, with senior officials like Vance engaged only when the time is right. Trump could also reverse course on Vance if Iran shows serious intent.

Next week Trump travels to the Philippines and then to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in Shenzhen, China, where he will hold an unprecedented three-way summit with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Iran and the three powers' nuclear stockpiles are expected on the agenda.