After Midterm Losses, Trump's Shifting Iran Signals Leave Mideast Diplomacy in Limbo

In the week since Republicans took a beating in the midterm elections, President Donald Trump has said a great deal about where the eight-month-old war with Iran is headed, and the statements do not line up. In exchanges with reporters, in broadcast interviews and in social media posts, he has stepped back from new strikes and also stepped back from further talks with Iranian negotiators.

The day after the election, Trump acknowledged that the war, and the global economic upheaval it has caused, were partly to blame for his party's losses. He maintained that going to war was the right call. Early this week he met at the White House with Qatar's prime minister, then told reporters it was highly unlikely he would need to order new major strikes, saying the war "militarily is effectively over."

By Thursday the tone had changed again. Trump raised doubts about whether he needed to hurry toward an endgame, declared that the U.S. no longer needs a deal with Tehran, and told Vice President JD Vance, his chief negotiator in the earlier peace talks, to turn his full attention to the administration's anti-fraud campaign aimed at Democrat-controlled cities and states. He also warned Iran that the U.S. military is "locked and loaded" and watching Pickaxe Mountain, a facility tied to Iran's nuclear program, for signs of activity. "If something does not work out, I would not hesitate" to act, he told conservative broadcaster Hugh Hewitt.

Qatar, the chief mediator, is still trying to negotiate an interim agreement that would restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the passage for oil and natural gas flowing from the Persian Gulf to world markets, while keeping the door open to further U.S.-Iran discussions. Two Middle East diplomats familiar with the process, speaking anonymously because of its sensitivity, said things looked on track after the Qatari prime minister's meeting with Trump. Thursday's post, they said, left everything in limbo. One questioned why Trump seemed to be sidelining Vance, who was skeptical about launching the war but ultimately backed it. The other described the peace push as a holding pattern, with mediators and Iranians alike unsure whether Trump was abandoning a deal or merely posturing after losing control of Congress.

A person familiar with the matter, also anonymous, said Vance had been weighing a return to talks with senior Iranian negotiators. Trump posted his message the morning after The Wall Street Journal reported on that thinking. He knew of Vance's deliberations, the person said, and believed the Iranians were not acting in good faith. The person added that Trump is increasingly confident he can credibly claim to have met his military goals. With oil shipments through the strait near prewar levels, he might leave it to Gulf countries to negotiate with Iran over governing the waterway. Passage remains risky, though: the United Nations reports that October saw the most incidents against commercial ships there since February.

The White House declined to comment directly on the postelection rhetoric. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking Friday evening to the Federalist Society, said the economic pain being inflicted on Iran is so great that military action is unnecessary. Earlier in the week he said the U.S. does not oppose mediators continuing their work. "If there's a deal to be done, the president will be the first one to be in favor of it," he said, "but it's not going to be a stupid deal."

Iran has not softened. It will not discuss its nuclear program until the U.S. accepts several core conditions it wants in any ceasefire, while Trump insists the nuclear dispute must be settled in any deal. Iran's deputy U.N. ambassador, Gholamhossein Darzi, told the Security Council on Friday that Iran "has never closed the door to diplomacy," but promised "an immediate and decisive response" if the U.S. or Israel resumed bombing. Democratic Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, speaking in Denver at his party's postelection gathering, said Trump is "acting like an arsonist who has set ablaze our foreign policy" and now wants to walk away.

Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy expects the stalemate over Hormuz to last, along with the monthslong U.S. naval blockade curbing Iranian crude exports. He called patience and pressure the most sensible path, with senior officials like Vance engaged only when the time is right. Trump could reverse course on Vance if the Iranians show seriousness.

The ambiguity will travel with Trump next week to the Philippines and then to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in Shenzhen, China. There he is to hold an unprecedented three-way summit with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, where Iran and the three powers' nuclear stockpiles are expected to come up.