In the days after American voters delivered a rebuke to Republicans at the midterms, the President has spoken of the Iran war in a voice that keeps turning back on itself: first calling the fighting effectively over, then waving off the need for any deal at all. Mediators, allies and the Iranians themselves are left to read the weather of a conflict now eight months old, in which the strait that carries the world's energy still hangs in a tense, half-open balance. Whether this is a man stepping away from a war he helped start or one positioning himself for a harder bargain remains unclear, and
After Midterm Losses, Trump's Shifting Iran Rhetoric Leaves Mideast Diplomacy in Limbo
Trump has backed away from both more strikes and more talks
Mark
Trump says the war is effectively over, then says he doesn't need a deal. Which is it?
Mimi
Both statements are on the record within days of each other. He told reporters Monday the war is militarily effectively over, and on Thursday he said no deal is needed and moved Vance off the Iran file.
Luke
Worth noting that the reason for the Vance move comes from an anonymous source. The post itself doesn't say why.
Mark
What does that source say?
Mimi
That Vance was weighing re-engaging Iranian negotiators, Trump knew, and he believed the Iranians weren't acting in good faith.
Mark
And the mediators?
Mimi
Qatar is still working on an interim deal to restore Hormuz traffic. Two diplomats say it's in a holding pattern, waiting to learn whether Trump is walking away or posturing.
Luke
Again, those are two unnamed diplomats. We don't know Trump's intent, and apparently neither do they.
Mark
Is the strait actually safe?
Mimi
Oil shipments are reportedly near prewar levels, but the UN says October had the most incidents against commercial ships since February.
Luke
And the claim that Trump could hand Hormuz talks to Gulf states is also from that one person familiar. It's a possibility, not a decision.
El Pulso
- Trump's public statements swing from declaring the war militarily over to insisting the United States no longer needs a deal, and no one can say which version will hold.
- Chief negotiator Vance has been pulled toward domestic anti-fraud work just as he was weighing a return to talks with Iranian negotiators.
- Qatar's interim effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has stalled into a holding pattern while mediators and Iranians wait for a signal from Washington.
- Iran vows an immediate and decisive response to any renewed bombing, and U.S. forces are described as locked and loaded over a suspected nuclear site.
- All eyes now turn to next week's Asia trip, where a rare three-way summit with Xi and Putin could either reopen the nuclear question or harden the standoff.
In the days after American voters delivered a rebuke to Republicans at the midterms, the President has spoken of the Iran war in a voice that keeps turning back on itself: first calling the fighting effectively over, then waving off the need for any deal at all. Mediators, allies and the Iranians themselves are left to read the weather of a conflict now eight months old, in which the strait that carries the world's energy still hangs in a tense, half-open balance. Whether this is a man stepping away from a war he helped start or one positioning himself for a harder bargain remains unclear, and the answer will shape whether diplomacy in the Gulf resumes or simply waits.
Since Republicans lost ground in the midterm elections, President Trump has said a great deal about where the Iran war goes next, and his words have not fit together. Early in the week he met Qatar's prime minister at the White House and told reporters new major strikes were highly unlikely and that the war was militarily effectively over. By Thursday his tone had shifted. He questioned the need to hurry toward an endgame, said the United States no longer needs a deal with Tehran, and told Vice President Vance to focus on an anti-fraud campaign aimed at Democratic-run cities and states.
The shift came the morning after The Wall Street Journal reported that Vance had been weighing a return to talks with senior Iranian negotiators. A person familiar with the matter said Trump knew of those deliberations and believed Iran was not negotiating in good faith. With oil shipments through Hormuz near prewar levels, Trump may be content to leave the waterway's governance to Gulf states, though the United Nations counts October as the worst month for incidents against commercial ships there since February.
Qatar is still working toward an interim arrangement to restore traffic through the strait, but diplomats describe a limbo that followed Thursday's post. One wondered why Vance was being sidelined despite once backing the war reluctantly. Iran, for its part, has not softened: it will not discuss its nuclear program until core ceasefire conditions are met, and its U.N. envoy said it has never closed the door to diplomacy while promising a decisive answer to any new bombing.
Analysts expect the stalemate to persist for some time. Next week, Trump travels to the Philippines and then to APEC in Shenzhen, where he is expected to meet Xi and Putin, with Iran and nuclear stockpiles on the agenda.
In the week since Republicans took a beating in the midterm elections, President Donald Trump has said a great deal about where the Iran war goes from here, and the pieces do not fit together. In exchanges with reporters, broadcast interviews and social media posts, he has stepped back from ordering more strikes and also from the prospect of more talks with Iranian negotiators, in a conflict now eight months old.
The day after the vote, Trump acknowledged that the war, and the global economic turmoil that followed it, were partly to blame for his party's losses. He maintained that launching it was the right call. At the start of this week he met Qatar's prime minister at the White House, then told reporters it was highly unlikely he would need to order new major strikes, and that the war "militarily is effectively over."
By Thursday the tone had changed. He questioned whether he needed to hurry toward an endgame and declared that the United States no longer needs a deal with Tehran. In a social media post, he told Vice President JD Vance, his chief negotiator in earlier peace talks, to give his "complete and total attention" to the administration's anti-fraud campaign aimed at Democrat-controlled cities and states. Trump also said the U.S. military is "locked and loaded" and watching Pickaxe Mountain, a facility linked to Iran's nuclear program, for signs of activity. He told conservative broadcaster Hugh Hewitt he would not hesitate to act if something does not work out.
According to a person familiar with the matter, Vance had been weighing a return to talks with senior Iranian negotiators. Trump posted his message the morning after The Wall Street Journal reported that Vance was considering it. The person said Trump knew of Vance's deliberations and believed the Iranians were not acting in good faith. The person also said Trump is increasingly confident he can credibly claim his military objectives are met. With oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz near prewar levels, he could leave it to Gulf countries to negotiate with Iran over governing the waterway. Still, the strait remains dangerous: the United Nations reports October had the most incidents against commercial ships there since February.
Qatar, the chief mediator, is still trying to negotiate an interim agreement that would restore traffic through the strait while leaving room for further U.S.-Iran discussions. Two Middle East diplomats familiar with the process, speaking anonymously, said things looked on track after the Qatari prime minister's meeting with Trump, but Thursday's post created a sense of limbo. One wondered why Trump seemed to be sidelining Vance, who was skeptical about the war but ultimately backed it. The other described a holding pattern, with mediators and Iranians unsure whether Trump is abandoning a negotiated deal or posturing after the midterms cost his party control of Congress.
The White House declined to comment directly on the rhetoric. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Federalist Society on Friday that the economic pain being inflicted on Iran is so great there is no need for military action. Earlier in the week he said the U.S. does not oppose mediators continuing, adding that Trump would favor a deal, but "not a stupid deal." Democratic Sen. Cory Booker, speaking in Denver at his party's postelection gathering, said Trump is acting like an arsonist who set foreign policy ablaze and now wants to walk away. America's allies were not consulted before the war began, yet they struggle with its economic effects.
Tehran's position has not softened. Iran remains unwilling to discuss its nuclear program until the U.S. accepts several core conditions it wants in any ceasefire, while Trump insists the nuclear differences be resolved in any deal. Iran's deputy U.N. ambassador, Gholamhossein Darzi, told the Security Council on Friday that Iran "has never closed the door to diplomacy," but would answer any renewed U.S. or Israeli bombing with "an immediate and decisive response."
Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy expects the stalemate over Hormuz and the monthslong U.S. naval blockade of Iranian crude to continue for some time. He called patience and pressure the most sensible path, with senior officials like Vance engaged only when the time is right, and said Trump could reverse course on Vance if Iran seems serious.
The next test comes next week, when Trump visits the Philippines and then the APEC meetings in Shenzhen, China. There he is to hold an unprecedented three-way summit with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, where Iran and the three powers' nuclear stockpiles are expected to be discussed.
Citas Notables
Militarily, the war is effectively over.— President Donald Trump, to reporters
If there's a deal to be done, the president will be the first one to be in favor of it, but it's not going to be a bad deal.— Secretary of State Marco Rubio
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