As the dust settles on the 2020 AFL trade period, a quieter but more consequential reckoning is already underway — one measured not in picks exchanged but in loyalties weighed. A generation of elite players, from Patrick Cripps to Josh Kelly, will spend the next twelve months deciding whether their futures lie with the clubs that shaped them or with the promise of premiership glory elsewhere. These are the decisions that do not make headlines today but will redraw the map of Australian football by the time 2022 arrives.
AFL Eyes 2021: Merrett, Cripps, Kelly Among Elite Free Agents Set to Reshape League
If Carlton misses finals again, Cripps may chase a return home.
Mark
So the big story here is that Carlton is basically saying they want Merrett and Kelly both?
Mimi
Not both at once—but they're keeping their options open. They've got cap space after landing Saad and Williams, and they're looking at 2021 when Merrett becomes a free agent. Kelly is more complicated because he's got that player option at GWS, so he might not even be available.
Luke
Right, and we should be careful here. One reporter said Carlton would "throw the kitchen sink" at Merrett. That's one person's prediction, not confirmation of a plan. We don't actually know what Carlton's budget will be or what Merrett wants.
Mark
What about Cripps? Is he actually going to leave?
Mimi
That's the real tension. He's said it would be hard to leave, but he's also made it clear that another year without finals would change the calculation. If Carlton misses again, he'll seriously consider West Coast or Fremantle.
Luke
And here's what we don't know: whether Cripps has actually had conversations with those clubs, or whether this is just speculation based on the fact that they had quiet trade periods. Quiet could mean they're saving cap space, or it could mean nothing at all.
Mark
So age matters here too. Laird and Smith are both getting older, and Adelaide is rebuilding.
Mimi
Exactly. The Crows have to decide if 28 and 29 year-olds fit into their next premiership window. That's a real calculation, not just sentiment.
Luke
Though Adelaide's list boss said they want to extend Matt Crouch, so they're not just clearing everyone out. Some of these decisions are about which players you think are part of the future.
Mark
And then there's Kelly, who literally has the power to decide his own fate.
Mimi
He can trigger an eight-year deal at GWS for about a million a year. The Giants gave him that power to show they're serious about keeping him. But he won't say whether he's staying.
Luke
Which tells you something—if he was happy, he'd probably say so. The fact that he dodged the question in July suggests he's at least thinking about his options.
Der Puls
- Patrick Cripps has tied his Carlton loyalty to a single condition — finals football in 2021 — and West Coast and Fremantle have quietly kept their salary caps clear, as if waiting for a signal.
- Zach Merrett stayed put through the 2020 trade period, but Carlton is already engineering the cap space to make him an offer he may find difficult to refuse when his contract expires.
- Josh Kelly holds a rare and extraordinary power — an eight-year, million-dollar-per-season option he can trigger at will — yet three direct questions about his future in July produced three non-answers.
- GWS enters 2021 having lost Cameron, Williams, and others, and a struggling season could erode the loyalty of the stars it is counting on to stay.
- Carlton emerges as the most aggressive architect of this coming reshuffle, pursuing midfield talent with a clarity of vision that suggests the Blues believe their rebuild is closer to completion than their ladder position implies.
As the dust settles on the 2020 AFL trade period, a quieter but more consequential reckoning is already underway — one measured not in picks exchanged but in loyalties weighed. A generation of elite players, from Patrick Cripps to Josh Kelly, will spend the next twelve months deciding whether their futures lie with the clubs that shaped them or with the promise of premiership glory elsewhere. These are the decisions that do not make headlines today but will redraw the map of Australian football by the time 2022 arrives.
The 2020 AFL trade period has closed, but the decisions that will truly reshape the competition are still forming — in contract negotiations, in quiet salary cap management, and in the minds of players who have not yet spoken.
Patrick Cripps is the most consequential figure in this uncertainty. The Carlton co-captain has carried the Blues through years of rebuilding and has said publicly that leaving would be hard. But his loyalty carries a condition: one more season without finals football and he is expected to seriously weigh his options. West Coast and Fremantle both had unusually restrained trade periods, and observers have read that restraint as deliberate — cap space preserved for a player who might want to come home. Former Carlton list boss Stephen Silvagni acknowledged the stakes. The captaincy matters, but results matter more.
Zach Merrett did not want to leave Essendon in 2020, and the Bombers made clear they would not move him. Yet Carlton, Hawthorn, and Port Adelaide all circled. Carlton is the most serious suitor. The Blues lack the cap room to act now, but by 2021, when Merrett becomes a free agent, they will — and one reporter predicted they would pursue him with everything they have, envisioning him as the ideal partner for Cripps in a midfield that could accelerate the club's timeline.
Josh Kelly's situation is the most intricate. The GWS midfielder holds a player option — an eight-year extension worth roughly a million dollars a season — that the Giants offered as a gesture of faith. He has not triggered it. Asked three times in July whether he was staying, he declined each time. North Melbourne made him a serious offer before his last re-signing, and Carlton has flagged interest in either Kelly or Merrett for 2022. How the Giants perform after a bruising trade period will matter enormously.
Elsewhere, the picture is steadier. Joel Selwood is almost certain to finish at Geelong. Dayne Zorko, who fought through Brisbane's lean years, is expected to stay. Marcus Bontempelli's club has already begun extension talks. Matt Crouch is a priority retention for Adelaide's leadership group. But for Rory Laird and Brodie Smith, both approaching 30 in a club still rebuilding, the question of whether they fit the next premiership window remains genuinely open.
The next twelve months will not just determine where these players land — they will determine which clubs are building toward something real and which are still waiting to find out.
The 2020 AFL trade period has closed, but the real movement is already taking shape in the minds of list managers and agents across the league. A cohort of elite players will enter the final year of their contracts over the next twelve months, and their decisions—whether to stay, to test the market, or to chase premiership windows elsewhere—will fundamentally alter the competitive landscape.
Patrick Cripps stands at the center of this uncertainty. The Carlton co-captain has carried the Blues for years, and the club's future may hinge on whether he remains committed to the rebuild or opts to explore a return to Western Australia. Cripps has said publicly that leaving would be difficult, but there is a condition attached to his loyalty: if Carlton fails to reach the finals in 2021, he is expected to seriously consider his options. West Coast and Fremantle both had unusually quiet trade periods—the Eagles only moved picks for two players, the Dockers added no one—and observers have read into that restraint a deliberate preservation of salary cap space. Both clubs would be positioned to make a substantial offer if Cripps signals he wants to go home. Former Carlton list boss Stephen Silvagni acknowledged the tension: the captain's role carries weight in these negotiations, but so does the club's on-field performance. One more year without finals football could tip the scales.
Zach Merrett presents a different kind of puzzle. The 25-year-old Essendon midfielder did not want to move in the 2020 trade period, and the Bombers made clear they would not trade him. Yet Carlton, Hawthorn, and Port Adelaide all registered interest. Carlton is the most intriguing suitor. The Blues have already added Adam Saad and Zac Williams to bolster their outside run, and they have salary cap room remaining. They do not have enough space to acquire Merrett now, but by 2021, when he becomes a free agent, they will. One Herald Sun reporter predicted Carlton would "throw the kitchen sink" at Merrett, positioning him as the perfect complement to Cripps—a dynamic midfield partnership that could accelerate the club's timeline. Merrett would arrive for nothing at the end of his contract, a significant advantage for any bidder.
Josh Kelly's situation is more complex still. The GWS midfielder holds what amounts to a player option: he signed a two-year deal in 2019 and can trigger an eight-year extension worth approximately one million dollars per season. The Giants handed him this power as a sign of their commitment to keeping him as a one-club player. Yet Kelly has not made up his mind. When asked three times in July whether he was staying long-term, he declined to answer. North Melbourne made him a substantial offer before he re-signed with the Giants, and Carlton has expressed keen interest in either Kelly or Merrett to partner Cripps from 2022 onward. Much depends on how the Giants perform in 2021 after losing Jeremy Cameron, Zac Williams, and others in the trade period. A struggling team may struggle to retain its stars.
Other prominent names face their own crossroads. Rory Laird and Brodie Smith, both Adelaide midfielders, will be 28 and 29 respectively when their contracts expire. The Crows are rebuilding, and the question is whether either player fits into the next premiership window. Matt Crouch, the younger brother of Brad (now at St Kilda), is in Adelaide's leadership group, and the club's list boss has indicated a strong desire to extend him. Joel Selwood at Geelong is almost certain to finish his career in the hoops—the captain is 33 and the club has a tradition of allowing its superstars to retire as one-club players. Max Gawn at Melbourne will be 30 when his next deal begins; the Demons will want to keep him, though they may be cautious about committing large money after watching Collingwood struggle with its salary cap following a big investment in Brodie Grundy.
Several restricted free agents are expected to stay put. Marcus Bontempelli, the Western Bulldogs captain, signed a two-year extension in 2018 that positioned him for maximum leverage in free agency, but the club's CEO indicated contract talks had already begun. Nick Vlastuin at Richmond, a 26-year-old defender, signed a two-year extension in early 2019 and will have significant leverage when he hits the market, but the Tigers are unlikely to let him go. Luke McDonald at North Melbourne, just 25 and fresh off winning the club champion award, is a father-son prospect the Kangaroos will fight to keep. Dayne Zorko, the Brisbane Lions captain at 32, has won four best and fairests and fought through the lean years; he is almost certain to remain.
The 2021 trade period will be shaped by these decisions. Some clubs are already positioning themselves—Carlton most visibly, with its aggressive pursuit of outside talent and its clear interest in midfield reinforcements. Others will wait to see how their teams perform and whether their stars remain committed. The next twelve months will determine not just which players move, but which clubs emerge as genuine contenders and which remain in transition.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Put this in your time capsule. I think Carlton is locked and loaded, and will throw the kitchen sink at Zach Merrett as a free agent next year.— Herald Sun reporter Jay Clark
Patrick is the captain of the football club so I think that comes into play massively. A lot really depends on Carlton's season next year—that would have a fair bearing on Patrick's decision.— Former Carlton list boss Stephen Silvagni
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