AfD surges in northeast as Merz's CDU hits historic low; Left wins Berlin

On Sunday evening, German voters delivered a historic rebuke to Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union while propelling the far-right Alternative for Germany to its strongest regional showing yet. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD claimed 38.2 percent of the vote, narrowly edging the center-left Social Democratic Party's 35.5 percent. But the night's most stunning result was the CDU's collapse: with just 4.9 percent, Merz's party failed to clear the 5 percent threshold needed for parliamentary representation—the worst performance by the CDU in any German state election since the party's founding in 1945. The previous low had been 9 percent in Bremen in 1951, a record that stood for more than seven decades.

Merz did not mince words about what had happened. "We can't sugarcoat the results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania—it was a disaster," he said within minutes of the first projections. Yet he struck a defiant note, pledging to "get down to business" with reforming Germany. The AfD's co-leader Tino Chrupalla was less restrained, telling public television that his party "clearly has a mandate to govern" and calling on Merz to resign, saying it "would truly be a relief for this country."

The arithmetic of power, however, told a different story. With the CDU and the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance both falling short of 5 percent, the new state parliament would contain only four parties: the AfD, the SPD, the Left Party, and the Greens. The SPD's current premier, Manuela Schwesig, retained a path to continued leadership. A coalition of the SPD, Left Party, and Greens would command 39 seats in the 71-seat assembly—a working majority. All three parties have ruled out governing with the AfD, maintaining what German politics calls the "firewall" against the far right. The AfD, despite its electoral strength, would find itself isolated.

In Berlin, the results painted a different picture but pointed toward similar instability. The Left Party, a socialist faction, finished first with roughly 25 percent of the vote, ahead of the CDU. The party's mayoral candidate, Elif Eralp, celebrated the outcome as a victory of "love and justice over hate." Born in Munich in 1981 to a family of Turkish refugees, Eralp would become Berlin's first female mayor with an immigration background if her party successfully negotiated a coalition—likely with the SPD and Greens, both of which signaled openness to a "progressive alliance."

Young voters drove much of the Left Party's strength in Berlin. Among those aged 16 to 24—voting in a state election for the first time—43 percent backed the Left Party, with another 12 percent supporting the Greens and 7 percent the SPD. Only 12 percent of that age group voted for the AfD. Support for the Left Party remained strong among those aged 25 to 34, at 48 percent, before declining steadily with age. Voters over 70 favored the CDU at 33 percent.

The elections exposed fractures in Germany's political center that extended beyond the ballot box. Frank Werneke, head of the Verdi trade union, directly attributed the CDU's poor showing to Merz's planned labor reforms—specifically a requirement that workers provide a doctor's note from the first day of illness and the elimination of full pension benefits after 45 years of contributions. "Many people reject abolishing the full pension after 45 years of contributions," Werneke told the Süddeutsche Zeitung. "People are worn out and exhausted. They want to stop working, and they need to." Verdi announced plans for nationwide protests in 15 cities the following Saturday.

Religious leaders in Berlin offered their own reading of the results. The city's Protestant Bishop Christian Stäblein said voters had endorsed "liberal democracy," while his Catholic counterpart, Heiner Koch, pledged that the church would "continue to critically observe politics, and warn against the supposedly easy solutions, and speak up for those who are insufficiently seen or heard in the political debate." Berlin, Koch said, "is and stays diverse."

What remained unclear was whether these state-level outcomes would force Merz from office or reshape his government's direction. His approval rating had already reached a record low. The trade union chief's hope—that Merz would "realize that he has screwed up"—reflected a broader sense that the chancellor's political standing had become precarious. The coming weeks would determine whether the CDU could stabilize its position or whether Sunday's results marked the beginning of a deeper realignment in German politics.