AfD surges in German elections but faces coalition isolation

The Alternative for Germany finished Sunday's state elections as the strongest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, claiming 37.9 percent of the vote. It was a commanding result—but it changed almost nothing about the party's actual power to govern. Within hours of the exit polls, the AfD's co-leader Tino Chrupalla was on public television declaring a mandate to rule and calling for coalition talks with every other party. He also demanded that Chancellor Friedrich Merz resign. What Chrupalla did not say, because he could not, was how any of this would actually happen. No other party in the state was willing to talk to him.

In Berlin, the AfD's performance was more muted. The party took 16.2 percent of the vote in the capital's state parliament elections—a disappointment, since internal polling had suggested 18 percent was within reach. Still, it was a gain, and the party's national leadership moved quickly to frame the results as a turning point. Alice Weidel, the AfD's other co-leader, told the public broadcaster ZDF that her party was now "the new people's party in Germany," a direct challenge to the Christian Democrats, who had suffered heavy losses in both elections. Weidel criticized the CDU for maintaining what she called "firewalls"—explicit refusals to enter into any governing coalition with the AfD. She said her party had "not erected any firewalls" and was ready to talk. She did not explain what those talks would actually accomplish.

The isolation facing the AfD is not new, but it has become harder to ignore. Three weeks earlier, in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, the party had narrowly missed winning an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament. That meant it could not elect a state premier on its own. The AfD's leading candidate there, Ulrich Siegmund, had made clear during the campaign that he would only accept a single-party government—no coalitions, no minority arrangements tolerated by other parties. Since the election, it has remained unclear what the party actually wants, or what it thinks is possible. The national leadership, according to reporting, has a strong interest in forming some kind of government, any kind of government. Weidel suggested after the Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania results that the AfD could take power "even in a minority government." The implication was clear: the party would accept almost any arrangement that put it in office.

Weidel herself is said to harbor ambitions to become chancellor. She was the AfD's chancellor candidate in the 2025 federal election, and many senior party figures see her as the likely candidate for the next federal race. A successful state government—even a fragile one—could strengthen her hand. But the party's electoral gains have also triggered a visible backlash. In both Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, voters mobilized specifically to limit the AfD's vote share, suggesting that the party's ceiling may be lower than its leadership believes.

The AfD's campaign was also shadowed by a series of scandals. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, one candidate withdrew after it emerged he was a convicted bank robber. Another pulled out when his DUI conviction and suspended driver's license became public. In Berlin, drugs and Nazi memorabilia were discovered in the possession of a staff member working for the party's lead candidate. These were not isolated incidents. The party has a documented history of members making positive references to the Nazi era. One AfD member of the European Parliament posed for a photograph with his hand on his chest in front of Hitler's bunker in Berlin. A Bundestag member once described himself as the "friendly face of National Socialism." Björn Höcke, the influential AfD state leader in Thuringia, was fined twice for using slogans associated with the SA, the paramilitary wing of Hitler's Nazi party.

What emerges from the election results is a paradox that may define German politics for the foreseeable future. The AfD is growing stronger in electoral terms—it is winning votes, becoming the largest party in some states, forcing itself into the center of political conversation. Yet it remains almost entirely isolated from actual power. Other parties, across the political spectrum, have decided that governing with the AfD is not an option they will consider. The party's leadership is signaling flexibility—Weidel's willingness to accept a minority government suggests the AfD would take almost any seat at the table. But flexibility does not matter if no one is willing to sit across from you. The question now is whether that isolation can hold as the AfD's vote share continues to climb, or whether the pressure of electoral success will eventually force other parties to recalculate.