A nationalist feeding on the patriotic impulse growing across Canada
Canada selected Saab's GlobalEye surveillance aircraft over U.S. competitors, signaling a deliberate pivot away from American defense suppliers and toward European alternatives. The Carney government aims to shift 70% of defense contracts to Canadian companies, with Gripen production potentially creating 9,000 jobs and supporting Ukrainian military needs.
- Canada plans to reduce F-35 purchase from 88 to approximately 30 aircraft while acquiring 60 Gripen jets
- GlobalEye surveillance aircraft selection: 5+ billion Canadian dollars for 6 units, potentially 40 built domestically
- Gripen production could generate 9,000 jobs and supply Ukraine's air force
- Current defense spending: 75% flows to U.S. companies; government target is 70% to Canadian firms
- F-35 full program cost: 27.7 billion Canadian dollars; decision pending, possibly after U.S. midterm elections
Canada's government under PM Mark Carney is evaluating reducing its F-35 purchase from 88 to approximately 30 aircraft while acquiring Swedish Saab Gripen jets instead, signaling a strategic shift to reduce U.S. military and economic dependence.
Canada's government is quietly reconsidering one of its largest military commitments. Prime Minister Mark Carney's administration has begun evaluating whether to scale back its planned purchase of 88 F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin and instead acquire Swedish Gripen aircraft manufactured by Saab. The shift would represent a deliberate move away from American defense suppliers and toward European alternatives—a pivot that has gained momentum since Ottawa announced its selection of Saab's GlobalEye surveillance aircraft over competing proposals from Boeing and L3Harris.
The decision to choose GlobalEye, a surveillance platform developed jointly by Saab and Canadian manufacturer Bombardier, sent a clear signal about the government's strategic direction. That choice eliminated two American competitors: Boeing's E-7 Wedgetail and L3Harris's Aeris platform. The selection was widely interpreted as evidence of Carney's broader effort to reduce Canada's economic and military dependence on the United States. Now the central question is whether Ottawa will apply the same logic to its fighter jet program, creating a mixed fleet of both F-35s and Gripens.
Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has publicly criticized Lockheed Martin's industrial commitments to Canada, stating that the company's proposed investments "are not large enough" and that the government's priority is job creation. This reflects a fundamental reorientation of Canada's defense procurement strategy. Currently, approximately 75 percent of Canadian spending on defense goods and equipment flows to American companies. The Carney government has set an ambitious target: ensuring that Canadian firms capture 70 percent of defense contracts, thereby strengthening the country's industrial base and reducing reliance on U.S. suppliers.
The GlobalEye acquisition alone represents a significant commitment. Ottawa plans to spend more than 5 billion Canadian dollars on six surveillance aircraft. By selecting the Saab-Bombardier proposal, the government intends to transform Canada into a production hub for airborne warning and control systems, with the possibility of manufacturing approximately 40 units domestically to serve NATO allies as well. The program could generate more than 3,000 jobs. A shift toward Gripen production would expand this ambition considerably. According to reporting from La Presse, sources close to the decision indicate that the outcome is largely settled: the government would likely split the fighter order, acquiring roughly 30 F-35s and approximately 60 Gripens.
Saab has indicated that if selected, it would enable Canada to manufacture fighters for its own needs and potentially supply part of Ukraine's air force requirements. That scenario could create around 9,000 jobs and establish a strategic supply chain in aerospace and defense. The original F-35 contract was reopened shortly after Carney took office in spring 2025, amid escalating trade tensions between Ottawa and Washington. The prime minister instructed Defense Minister David McGuinty to examine whether acquiring 88 fighters represented the best investment for the country. The review was supposed to take three months. It has not yet concluded, frustrating officials in the Trump administration.
Canada is legally committed to receiving 16 F-35s beginning next year, but no contract has been signed for the remaining 72 aircraft. The full F-35 program carries an estimated price tag of 27.7 billion Canadian dollars, including the jets themselves, equipment, support, training, and construction of facilities for fighter squadrons. The debate extends beyond procurement logic into questions about continental defense. In March, NORAD commander General Gregory Guillot told U.S. senators that fighters like the F-35 are not "frankly" essential for defending North American borders and are better suited to strikes against distant targets. Yet the Pentagon has recently pressured Carney's government to make a swift decision. U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Elbridge Colby announced the suspension of the Permanent Joint Board on Defense, North America's oldest bilateral defense committee, claiming Canada had not made tangible progress on defense commitments.
In Ottawa, American pressure has been met with indifference. Carney has adopted nationalist rhetoric amid the trade war with the United States, recently describing himself as "a nationalist" and saying he draws energy from the patriotic impulse growing across Canada. No official announcement date has been set. According to sources familiar with the deliberations, the government is calculating the optimal political moment to reveal its decision—possibly after U.S. midterm elections.
Notable Quotes
The industrial offsets from the F-35 are not large enough, and our goal is to create jobs in Canada— Industry Minister Mélanie Joly
I am a nationalist and I feed off the patriotic impulse that is growing in Canada— Prime Minister Mark Carney
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would Canada suddenly pivot away from the F-35 after years of commitment to that program?
It's not sudden, really. The trade war with the U.S. created an opening for Carney to ask a question his predecessors didn't: what if we built our own defense industrial base instead of buying everything from Americans? The F-35 review became a way to test that idea.
But the F-35 is supposed to be the standard NATO fighter. Doesn't choosing Gripen isolate Canada?
That's what Washington argues. But Carney's government sees it differently. They're not abandoning NATO—they're saying a mixed fleet works fine for continental defense, and Gripen production creates 9,000 Canadian jobs instead of enriching Lockheed Martin.
What does Saab get out of this? Why would they agree to let Canada build Gripens?
Access to a NATO market and Ukrainian contracts. If Canada manufactures fighters for itself and Ukraine, Saab gets production volume and political legitimacy. It's a partnership, not a purchase.
The Pentagon suspended the defense committee. That sounds serious.
It is. But Carney isn't backing down. He's framing this as Canadian sovereignty, not defiance. The timing—waiting until after U.S. midterms—suggests he's betting the political pressure will ease.
What happens if he's wrong and the U.S. retaliates?
That's the real risk. Trade tensions are already high. A fighter jet decision that looks like a rejection of American industry could escalate things. But Carney seems willing to absorb that cost for the sake of building something Canadian owns.