The U.S. Open has never been a tournament that rewards the obvious choice
Each June, the U.S. Open arrives as a reminder that greatness on paper does not guarantee greatness under pressure. At Shinnecock Hills in 2026, the world's finest golfers — led by Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Collin Schauffele — gather for the third major of the season, yet the championship's long history suggests the trophy may find its way to hands no one thought to watch. The U.S. Open has always been less a coronation of the expected than a crucible that reveals the prepared, the patient, and the quietly ready.
- A 156-player field descends on Shinnecock Hills, but the course's punishing rough, treacherous greens, and unpredictable wind have a way of humbling even the most decorated names in the game.
- Scottie Scheffler carries the weight of a potential career grand slam, a 30th birthday, and Father's Day all converging on Sunday — the kind of narrative pressure that can lift or break a champion.
- Recent history offers a cautionary tale: J.J. Spaun birdied the 72nd hole at Oakmont to win last year, and Wyndham Clark stunned the field at Los Angeles Country Club two years prior, both men overlooked before the week began.
- The CBS Sports staff has cast a wide net, naming nine potential winners beyond the obvious favorites, acknowledging that the U.S. Open's defining trait is its refusal to reward consensus.
- As Sunday's final round approaches, the tournament is poised to once again test whether elite ranking translates to elite performance — or whether an unheralded name will rewrite the pre-event story entirely.
One hundred fifty-six golfers arrived at Shinnecock Hills for the 2026 U.S. Open, the third major of the season, carrying with them the weight of expectation and the knowledge that this championship rarely honors it. Scottie Scheffler, the world's top-ranked player, leads a field that includes Rory McIlroy — still chasing a title that has long eluded him — and Collin Schauffele, who has never finished outside the top 15 in this event. On paper, the favorites are clear. The U.S. Open, however, has never been a tournament that reads from the same script.
The lesson arrived fresh from the PGA Championship weeks earlier at Aronimink, where Aaron Rai emerged from relative obscurity to claim the season's second major. It was a familiar story. Last year at Oakmont, J.J. Spaun — not among the consensus contenders — birdied the final hole to win. Two years before that, Wyndham Clark's victory at Los Angeles Country Club surprised a field that had expected McIlroy or Rickie Fowler to prevail. The pattern is not coincidence; it is the championship's character.
The U.S. Open seems to punish favorites in ways other majors do not, rewarding instead the player who can manage the course's demands, absorb the pressure, and execute when the margin narrows to a single shot. For Scheffler, Sunday carries an extraordinary convergence: a win would complete his career grand slam, and it would arrive on Father's Day and his 30th birthday. The story writes itself — which is precisely why the U.S. Open may choose to write a different one.
CBS Sports has identified nine potential winners from the full field, a deliberate acknowledgment that the championship's most reliable trait is its unpredictability. Whoever lifts the trophy at Shinnecock Hills may be someone whose name was barely spoken when the week began. At the U.S. Open, that is not a failure of foresight — it is simply the nature of the thing.
One hundred fifty-six golfers arrived at Shinnecock Hills this week to compete for the third major championship of 2026, but the U.S. Open has never been a tournament that rewards the obvious choice. The field includes the world's best players—Scottie Scheffler at No. 1, Rory McIlroy chasing a title that has eluded him, Collin Schauffele with a remarkable record of never finishing outside the top 15 in this event. Yet the history of this championship suggests that the winner's name may belong to someone further down the list of expectations.
The lesson came fresh from the PGA Championship just weeks earlier at Aronimink Golf Club, where Aaron Rai emerged from what appeared to be a secondary field to claim the second major of the season. That result crystallized something the U.S. Open has demonstrated repeatedly: the tournament's difficulty and quirky setup seem to level the playing field in ways that favor the prepared over the favored. Last year, J.J. Spaun was not among the consensus contenders when he arrived at Oakmont Country Club, yet he played his way into contention and finished with a birdie on the 72nd hole that no one had predicted. Two years before that, Wyndham Clark's victory at Los Angeles Country Club came as a surprise to many who had expected McIlroy or Rickie Fowler to prevail.
This pattern repeats itself with enough frequency that it has become almost a defining characteristic of the U.S. Open. The championship seems to punish the favorites in ways other majors do not, rewarding instead the player who can navigate the course's demands on a particular week, who can manage the pressure, who can execute when the margin between success and failure narrows to a single shot. The names that dominate the conversation heading into Sunday—Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele, and Matthew Fitzpatrick, who leads the tour in wins this season—are certainly capable of winning. Scheffler, in particular, faces a remarkable convergence: a victory would complete his career grand slam, and it would come on Father's Day and his 30th birthday.
Yet the CBS Sports staff has identified nine potential winners from the full field, a list that extends beyond the obvious contenders. The reasoning is straightforward: the U.S. Open has earned its reputation as the most unpredictable of the four majors. Every year, someone emerges from the middle of the pack to threaten the favorites. Every year, the tournament produces a story that defies the pre-event narrative. The setup at Shinnecock Hills—the rough, the greens, the wind—will determine who can adapt and who cannot. The player who wins on Sunday may be someone whose name was not mentioned in the same breath as Scheffler or McIlroy when the week began. That is not a flaw in the prediction process; it is simply the nature of the U.S. Open.
Notable Quotes
The PGA Championship at Aronimink showed that even in an era of professional golf catered to the world's best, any player can be the world's best on any given week— CBS Sports analysis
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does the U.S. Open seem to surprise us more than other majors?
The course itself is part of it. The rough is punishing, the greens are firm and fast. It's not about who hits the longest drive or who has the best short game in isolation—it's about who can manage the entire puzzle under pressure.
But Scheffler is the best player in the world. Shouldn't that matter?
It should, and it might. But the U.S. Open has a way of making the world's best player just one of many capable contenders. Aaron Rai proved that at the PGA Championship weeks ago. He wasn't the favorite, but he was ready.
So you're saying preparation matters more than ranking?
I'm saying the U.S. Open doesn't care about rankings. It cares about who can execute under the specific conditions of that week. Wyndham Clark beat Rory McIlroy two years ago. J.J. Spaun wasn't supposed to win last year. The pattern is clear.
What makes Scheffler different, then?
The grand slam completion, the birthday, the narrative—those are real. But they're also the kind of things that can distract a player. The U.S. Open punishes distraction.
So the nine contenders CBS identified—they're not just the favorites?
Exactly. They're the players who, given the right conditions and the right mindset, could navigate Shinnecock Hills better than anyone else on Sunday.