The show that says something new wins the night.
Each spring, Broadway submits its season's work to the judgment of its peers, and in 2026 that reckoning favors productions willing to take genuine artistic risks. A small West End import about strangers and cake edges out spectacle for the musical prize, while a feminist play, a surrealist Miller revival, and a drag-ball reimagining of Cats suggest that the American theater is most alive when it refuses to repeat itself. The predicted winners span intimate chamber storytelling and grand cultural reclamation, united by a shared willingness to ask what familiar forms might yet become.
- The Best Musical race is the evening's closest call, with the modest, emotionally precise 'Two Strangers' threatening to outrun the technically dazzling and far more expensive 'The Lost Boys.'
- A 77-year-old American tragedy is suddenly urgent again — Joe Mantello's surrealist staging of 'Death of a Salesman' has made Willy Loman's collapse feel less like history and more like a live wire.
- 'Cats: The Jellicle Ball' has reframed Andrew Lloyd Webber's spectacle as a celebration of 1980s queer ball culture, positioning itself to sweep technical categories and redefine what a revival can mean.
- The acting races carry their own drama: a record-breaking ninth Tony nomination for Danny Burstein, a potential two-time win for André De Shields at eighty, and a ninety-six-year-old June Squibb becoming the oldest acting nominee in Tony history.
- Lesley Manville's Broadway debut monologue in 'Oedipus' has so thoroughly defined its category that the Best Actress in a Play race may already be over before the envelope opens.
- The evening as a whole appears to reward two distinct but compatible instincts — the intimacy of small, true stories and the audacity of bold theatrical reinvention.
The 2026 Tony Awards are shaping up as a season that rewards risk over safety, intimacy over spectacle, and reinvention over repetition. The night's tightest contest is Best Musical, where 'Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York),' a small West End import, is predicted to narrowly defeat the technically ambitious 'The Lost Boys.' Neither show is without flaws, but 'Two Strangers' lands its emotional and comedic moments more consistently, channeling something of New York's own frenetic, romantic energy.
In the play categories, Bess Wohl's 'Liberation' — a formally inventive exploration of second-wave feminism — is the expected Best Play winner, though the wickedly funny neighborhood satire 'The Balusters' carries the kind of topical urgency that occasionally upsets predictions. The revival races tell a story of Broadway's appetite for recontextualization: 'Ragtime' brings epic historical sweep, 'Cats: The Jellicle Ball' transforms Lloyd Webber's spectacle into a genuine celebration of queer identity and downtown culture, and Joe Mantello's surrealist 'Death of a Salesman' makes Arthur Miller's tragedy feel startlingly alive.
The acting races offer their own drama. Joshua Henry's portrayal of Coalhouse Walker Jr. in 'Ragtime' is considered a lock for Best Actor in a Musical — a wrenching performance about faith in the American dream systematically destroyed. John Lithgow's biographical turn as Roald Dahl, witty and ultimately horrifying, is predicted to edge Nathan Lane's Willy Loman for Best Actor in a Play. Lesley Manville, making her Broadway debut in 'Oedipus,' has so thoroughly defined the Best Actress in a Play category with a single shattering monologue that the race may already be settled.
The featured categories carry records and milestones of their own. Danny Burstein's ninth Tony nomination surpasses Jason Robards for most by a male performer. André De Shields, at eighty, could become a two-time winner. June Squibb, at ninety-six, has become the oldest acting nominee in Tony history. The technical awards are expected to belong largely to 'Cats: The Jellicle Ball,' while 'Two Strangers' should claim book and score. Taken together, the evening honors both the power of an intimate story told precisely and the courage to ask what a familiar form might yet become.
The 2026 Tony Awards are shaping up to be a season of surprises, though not all of them are unpredictable. The tightest race of the evening appears to be Best Musical, where a small West End import called "Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)" is positioned to narrowly defeat "The Lost Boys," a technically ambitious and expensive crowd-pleaser. Neither show is flawless, but "Two Strangers" manages to land its emotional and comedic beats more consistently, channeling the frenetic energy and unexpected romance of New York City itself. The prediction favors the smaller, more intimate production over spectacle.
In the play categories, the picture becomes clearer. "Liberation," Bess Wohl's formally inventive examination of second-wave feminism, is expected to claim Best Play. The show's emotional depth and structural ambition should prove persuasive to voters. "Giant," which won the Olivier Award for best play last year, could repeat that success here, but "The Balusters"—a wickedly funny satire about neighborhood politics and petty dysfunction—represents the kind of come-from-behind possibility that occasionally upsets predictions. Its topical bite about dysfunctional governance feels urgently relevant.
The revival categories reveal Broadway's appetite for risk and recontextualization. "Ragtime," with its sweeping historical scope and examination of America at the turn of the twentieth century, has the epic scale that Tony voters traditionally reward. Yet "Cats: The Jellicle Ball" has emerged as a revelation. By restaging Andrew Lloyd Webber's anthropomorphic musical within the context of 1980s drag ball culture, the production has transformed itself from a spectacle-driven vehicle into a genuine celebration of queer identity and downtown culture. For "Death of a Salesman," director Joe Mantello's decision to embrace surrealism as a window into the protagonist's fractured consciousness has made Arthur Miller's 77-year-old tragedy feel startlingly contemporary. The production's willingness to take theatrical risks should earn it the revival play prize.
The acting races reveal some clear frontrunners and at least one genuine surprise. Joshua Henry, playing Coalhouse Walker Jr. in "Ragtime," delivers what may be the season's finest performance—a wrenching portrayal of a talented pianist whose faith in the American dream is systematically destroyed by a racist system. He is considered a lock for Best Actor in a Musical. John Lithgow's turn as Roald Dahl in a biographical play presents a career-best performance: witty, brilliant, sympathetic, and ultimately horrifying, with every raised eyebrow and perfectly timed phrase designed to expose the bullying intellect and unapologetic antisemitism beneath the charm. Nathan Lane's Willy Loman in the "Death of a Salesman" revival is equally effective, but Lithgow's two existing Tonys versus Lane's three make the math favor the former.
For Best Actress in a Musical, Caissie Levy, who plays Mother in "Ragtime," is the expected winner, though Christiani Pitts remains a viable alternative. The "should win" pick goes to Marla Mindelle for her gloriously unhinged performance as Celine Dion in "Titanique." Lesley Manville, making her Broadway debut in "Oedipus," has dominated the Best Actress in a Play conversation since the show opened last fall. Her portrayal of a political spouse confronting devastating news about her husband includes a monologue of such shattering intensity that it has become the category's defining moment.
The featured acting categories offer more complexity. André De Shields, nominated for "Cats: The Jellicle Ball," could become a two-time Tony winner at age eighty, cementing a remarkable late-career renaissance that began with his "Hadestown" win at seventy-three. His competitors include Ben Levi Ross, fresh off a Drama Desk Award for "Ragtime," and Ali Louis Bourzgui, a twenty-six-year-old breakout from "The Lost Boys" who is marking his second originated Broadway role after playing the title character in 2024's "The Who's Tommy." In the featured play category, the race is genuinely difficult to parse, with four strong contenders: Alden Ehrenreich for "Becky Shaw," Christopher Abbott for "Death of a Salesman," Danny Burstein for "Marjorie Prime" (who has just set a record with his ninth Tony nomination, surpassing Jason Robards for most nominations by a male performer), and Richard Thomas for "The Balusters," whose potential win could serve as recognition for the entire production.
Shoshana Bean appears positioned for her third Tony win in the featured actress musical category, though a "Ragtime" sweep could elevate Nichelle Lewis instead. In featured actress in a play, Laurie Metcalf from "Death of a Salesman" is favored over June Squibb, who at ninety-six has become the oldest acting nominee in Tony history, surpassing Lois Smith's previous record of eighty-nine. The technical categories suggest "Cats: The Jellicle Ball" will dominate choreography and costume design, while "Two Strangers" is expected to win for book and original score, and "The Lost Boys" should claim orchestrations and sound design. The evening appears poised to honor both intimate storytelling and bold theatrical reinvention.
Notable Quotes
"Two Strangers" comes closer to sticking the landing, capturing the chaos, energy and romance of the Big Apple.— Variety's prediction analysis
By restaging the show during the drag balls of the 1980s, "Cats" has morphed into a glorious celebration of downtown culture and queer identity.— Variety's prediction analysis
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does "Two Strangers" beat "The Lost Boys" when The Lost Boys sounds like it has more resources behind it?
Scale isn't everything at the Tonys. "Two Strangers" apparently lands its emotional moments more cleanly. It's a West End import—smaller, more focused. "The Lost Boys" is technically audacious, but that ambition doesn't always translate to emotional resonance.
And "Cats: The Jellicle Ball"—that's the drag ball version, right? How does that even work?
It's a complete recontextualization. Instead of the original spectacle, it's set in 1980s drag ball culture. That context gives the show genuine meaning—it's not just cats anymore, it's a celebration of queer identity and downtown culture. The same music, but the story becomes something real.
Joe Mantello's "Death of a Salesman" sounds like he's making it weird. Isn't that risky?
It is risky. But he's using surrealism to show Willy's fractured mind—how he experiences reality. It makes a 77-year-old play feel urgent and modern. The risk is exactly why voters will reward it.
Joshua Henry as a lock—what makes him untouchable?
He plays a pianist whose faith in America is systematically destroyed by racism. It's not just a good performance; it's the emotional center of "Ragtime." He carries the weight of the entire show.
June Squibb at ninety-six—is she actually going to win?
Probably not, though she's made history just being nominated. Laurie Metcalf from "Death of a Salesman" is the stronger bet. But Squibb breaking the age record is its own kind of victory.
What's the real story underneath all these predictions?
Broadway is rewarding shows that take risks—whether that's intimate storytelling, surrealist direction, or radical recontextualization of classics. The safe, big-budget spectacle isn't winning. The shows that say something new are.