A society reveals its priorities not only in what it builds, but in where it chooses to build. Aviva's chief executive has warned that England is on course to construct 115,000 new homes in flood zones over the coming decade — places where the climate, already reshaped by warming, is making catastrophic flooding a once-in-a-generation event rather than a once-in-a-lifetime one. The warning is not merely technical; it is a question about whether planning decisions made today will strand millions of future homeowners in properties the market can no longer protect or value. The flood maps already
115,000 new homes at flood risk could become uninsurable, warns Aviva boss
Millions of current and future homeowners face potential financial loss through uninsurable properties and stranded investments in flood-prone areas.
We're building homes that might be uninsurable at some point
Mark
So Aviva's saying 115,000 homes will be built in flood zones over the next decade. That's a specific number—where does it come from?
Mimi
It's based on current building patterns and flood zone maps. Aviva looked at where development is already planned and where those areas overlap with flood risk zones. It's a projection, not a fixed prediction.
Luke
Right—and that matters. It's what will happen if nothing changes. If the government shifts planning rules or developers change course, that number could be different. We should be clear it's a trajectory, not a certainty.
Mark
Amanda Blanc says these homes might become uninsurable. What does that actually mean for someone who buys one?
Mimi
If a home can't get flood insurance, the owner can't get a mortgage—most lenders require it. They can't sell it easily either, because buyers face the same problem. You're left with an asset you can't leverage or transfer.
Luke
Though it's worth noting that "uninsurable" is a business decision, not a physical law. Insurers could choose to cover these homes at higher premiums, or with restrictions. Blanc is warning about a possibility, not describing something that's already happened.
Mark
The research says one in nine homes built between 2022 and 2024 are at medium to high flood risk. That's already happening now?
Mimi
Yes. And nearly a third of homes built in 2024 will face some flooding risk by 2050. The climate is changing faster than building standards are adapting.
Luke
Though "flooding risk by 2050" is a projection too. It depends on how much warming continues, how much rainfall increases, and whether flood defenses are upgraded. The Met Office data on extreme weather is solid—winters like 2023-24 are becoming more frequent. But the exact impact on any given home is still uncertain.
Mark
Blanc mentioned that construction bordering flood zones could be built differently to reduce vulnerability. Is that realistic?
Mimi
Absolutely. Elevated foundations, flood-resistant materials, better drainage, permeable surfaces—these are all proven techniques. The question is whether they're being required or incentivized in planning decisions.
Luke
And whether they're being used. We don't have data on how many new homes in flood zones are actually being built with these measures. That's a gap in the reporting.
Mark
What's the government's responsibility here?
Mimi
Planning permission. The government and local authorities decide where development can happen. If they're approving homes in flood zones without requiring resilience measures, they're making a choice that will have consequences for insurability and property values.
Luke
Though developers also make choices about where to build. And the housing shortage is real—there's pressure to build wherever possible. It's not just a government failure; it's a system-wide tension between housing supply and climate risk.
El Pulso
- Britain's largest insurer is sounding the alarm: 115,000 homes are headed for flood zones over the next decade, and the industry that would cover them is watching with growing unease.
- One in nine homes built between 2022 and 2024 already sits in medium-to-high flood risk territory, and nearly a third of 2024's new builds will face flooding risk by 2050 — a timeline well within a standard mortgage.
- What was once an 80-year flood event now arrives every 20 years, meaning homes being built today are not designed for the climate they will actually inhabit.
- An uninsurable home is not merely a financial inconvenience — it becomes unsellable, unmortgageable, and effectively worthless, threatening to trap future owners in stranded assets.
- The path forward runs through planning policy: where development is permitted, and whether flood-resilient construction standards are enforced, will determine whether this crisis is averted or simply deferred.
A society reveals its priorities not only in what it builds, but in where it chooses to build. Aviva's chief executive has warned that England is on course to construct 115,000 new homes in flood zones over the coming decade — places where the climate, already reshaped by warming, is making catastrophic flooding a once-in-a-generation event rather than a once-in-a-lifetime one. The warning is not merely technical; it is a question about whether planning decisions made today will strand millions of future homeowners in properties the market can no longer protect or value. The flood maps already exist — what is missing, it seems, is the will to read them.
Amanda Blanc, chief executive of Aviva, has issued a pointed warning to the BBC: England is building homes in places that may one day be impossible to insure. Her concern centres on a single telling figure — roughly 115,000 new homes are expected to be constructed in flood zones over the next decade if current building patterns continue. "That doesn't seem to me to make sense," she said.
The scale of existing exposure is already significant. The Environment Agency puts 6.3 million English homes and businesses at some level of flood risk. Aviva's own research sharpens the picture: one in nine homes built between 2022 and 2024 sits in a medium-to-high flood risk zone, and nearly a third of all homes built in 2024 will face flooding risk by 2050. Climate change is accelerating the timeline — the Met Office has found that the record-breaking wet winters of 2023 and 2024 have shifted from once-in-80-year events to once-in-20-year events under current warming levels.
Blanc was careful to note that the danger is not hidden. Flood zones are well-mapped. The problem is a disconnect between where homes are being permitted and where they should sensibly be placed. She also stressed that construction choices matter even at the margins of risk — design and building standards can make a property significantly more or less vulnerable, yet these decisions are not receiving the scrutiny they deserve.
The stakes for homeowners are severe. A property that cannot be insured becomes nearly impossible to sell or mortgage, effectively erasing its value as an asset. For millions of future buyers, this could mean investing life savings in a home the market eventually deems too dangerous to cover. Blanc's intervention is a signal that the insurance industry may one day withdraw from certain areas altogether — and that the time to prevent that outcome is now, before those 115,000 homes are built and occupied.
Amanda Blanc, who runs Aviva, one of Britain's largest insurance companies, has a straightforward concern: the country is building homes in places where they may eventually become impossible to insure. She raised this alarm in an interview with the BBC, pointing to a specific number that captures the scale of the problem. Over the next decade, based on current building patterns, roughly 115,000 new homes will be constructed in flood zones across England. "That doesn't seem to me to make sense," she said. "We need to think about where those homes are being built."
The backdrop to her warning is already stark. The Environment Agency estimates that 6.3 million homes and businesses in England currently face some level of flood risk. But the problem is accelerating. Aviva's own research found that one in every nine homes built between 2022 and 2024 sits in a medium to high flood risk zone. Looking further ahead, the picture darkens: nearly a third of all new homes built in 2024 will face flooding risk by 2050, and one in seven will be at medium to high risk as extreme weather intensifies.
Climate change is reshaping what "normal" flooding looks like. The Met Office has calculated that record-breaking wet winters—like the one the UK experienced in 2023 and 2024—have shifted from being once-in-80-year events to once-in-20-year events under current warming levels. This means the homes being built today in flood-prone areas are not being built for the climate they will experience in their lifetimes. Blanc emphasized that the flood zones themselves are well-mapped and known. The issue is not ignorance about where the danger lies, but rather a disconnect between where homes are being permitted and where they should sensibly be built.
Blanc also highlighted that the problem extends beyond simply avoiding flood zones altogether. Construction that borders those areas requires a different approach. "You can do all sorts of different things to your property to make it more or less vulnerable to flood," she explained. This suggests that even homes not directly in flood zones could be built more resilient, or conversely, could be left unnecessarily exposed. The implication is that building standards and design choices matter enormously, yet may not be receiving the attention they deserve.
The insurance industry's perspective on this is crucial. If homes become uninsurable, their owners face a cascading financial crisis: a property that cannot be insured becomes difficult to sell, impossible to mortgage, and essentially worthless as an asset. For millions of future homeowners, this could mean pouring savings into a house that the market eventually deems too risky to cover. Blanc's warning is not abstract—it is a signal that the insurance industry may eventually withdraw from covering homes in certain areas, leaving owners stranded.
In her broader conversation with the BBC, Blanc also addressed pension policy and government spending plans, urging caution about policy announcements ahead of the October Budget. She noted that speculation about pension changes in recent years had triggered a surge in withdrawals from Aviva's pension products—30 times the normal rate—decisions she suggested customers might later regret. She also indicated that Aviva, which already invests more than £100 billion in the UK economy, including £35 billion in infrastructure like hospitals, schools, and windfarms, is ready to invest further if the government provides clear direction.
The flood risk issue, however, cuts to a more fundamental question about planning and foresight. Building 115,000 homes in flood zones over the next decade is not inevitable—it reflects choices about where development is permitted and encouraged. Blanc's intervention suggests that the insurance industry, which will ultimately bear the cost of these decisions, is watching closely to see whether the government will reconsider its approach to building location and flood-resilient construction before those homes are completed and occupied.
Citas Notables
That doesn't seem to me to make sense. We need to think about where those homes are being built.— Amanda Blanc, Aviva CEO
You can do all sorts of different things to your property to make it more or less vulnerable to flood.— Amanda Blanc, Aviva CEO
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