Eighty percent of sales come through creators earning commissions
A new force in European commerce is growing quickly, but not necessarily at anyone else's expense. TikTok Shop has built a novel shopping ecosystem across Germany, France, Spain, and Italy — one powered by creators, commissions, and the impulsive pull of the feed — yet Goldman Sachs finds that its rise speaks more to the creation of a new consumer habit than the disruption of an old one. The platform sells what people didn't know they wanted until a video told them so, leaving the deliberate, trust-built commerce of established retailers largely untouched.
- TikTok Shop has moved fast across Europe, generating $195M in German sales alone within six months of launch — real numbers, even if modest beside its more mature markets.
- The platform's power lies in the impulse: cosmetics, supplements, shapewear, and cleaning products sold through creator videos that convert entertainment into transactions within seconds.
- Affiliate networks are the hidden engine, with creators driving over 80% of top merchants' sales — a self-reinforcing loop of incentives that keeps the content, and the commerce, flowing.
- Established retailers like Next and Zalando have held their ground, protected by a fundamental mismatch: TikTok Shop doesn't yet compete in the planned, deliberate purchases that anchor traditional retail.
- Zalando may even stand to gain — as TikTok Shop scales, it will need the logistics infrastructure that Zalando has already spent years building.
TikTok Shop is staking its claim in European commerce, but a Goldman Sachs analysis suggests the threat to established retailers is smaller than the platform's momentum implies. In its first six months across major European markets, the platform generated $195M in Germany, $152M in France, $118M in Spain, and $107M in Italy — genuine traction, though still far behind what it has achieved in the US and UK.
What the platform sells is as telling as how much it sells. TikTok Shop's bestsellers are impulse categories — cosmetics, supplements, shapewear, household appliances — products that a well-timed creator video can move in seconds. Nearly all of this happens through in-feed video, not livestreams or traditional browsing. It is social commerce in its most distilled form: entertainment that converts.
The affiliate network is the mechanism behind the numbers. Creators earn commissions, brands recruit creators, and TikTok collects transaction fees — a structure that works especially well for products that benefit from personal recommendation or visual demonstration. In several markets, affiliates account for more than 80% of leading merchants' sales.
For investors, the key detail is the lack of overlap. TikTok Shop's impulse-driven categories sit apart from the deliberate, planned purchases that define retailers like Next and Zalando, both of which have continued gaining market share. Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings on both, and notes that Zalando could even benefit — as TikTok Shop scales its European operations, it may turn to the logistics infrastructure that Zalando has already built.
The emerging picture is one of expansion without disruption. TikTok Shop appears to be creating its own category rather than cannibalizing existing retail — two ecosystems serving different shopping moods, and perhaps finding ways to rely on each other.
TikTok Shop is carving out space in European commerce, but the threat to established retailers appears smaller than the platform's rapid growth might suggest. According to a new analysis from Goldman Sachs, the short-form video shopping platform has built something genuinely appealing—a ecosystem where creators earn commissions, small brands find audiences, and consumers discover products through the feed rather than search. Yet the numbers tell a more modest story than the headlines.
Over the past six months, TikTok Shop generated roughly $195 million in sales across Germany, its strongest European market. France followed with $152 million, Spain with $118 million, and Italy with $107 million. These figures represent real momentum since the platform launched in those countries last year. But they pale beside what TikTok Shop has already achieved in more mature markets like the United States and the United Kingdom, suggesting Europe is still in early innings.
What's selling matters as much as how much is selling. The platform's bestsellers are not the items people sit down to deliberately hunt for online. Instead, TikTok Shop thrives on impulse—cosmetics, shapewear, supplements, cleaning products, household appliances. These are categories where a well-timed video in someone's feed can trigger a purchase decision in seconds. The sales come almost entirely from in-feed videos, not from livestreaming or traditional marketplace browsing. This is social commerce in its purest form: entertainment that converts.
The engine driving these sales is the affiliate network. Content creators earn commissions for promoting products, and in several markets, affiliates account for more than 80 percent of sales generated by the platform's top merchants. This structure aligns incentives neatly—creators have reason to promote, brands have reason to recruit creators, and TikTok captures transaction fees. It's a model that works particularly well for products that benefit from a personal recommendation or a compelling visual demonstration.
Yet here lies the crucial detail for investors watching established retailers: there is minimal overlap between what TikTok Shop sells and what the major European fashion and lifestyle retailers actually do. Companies like Next and Zalando have continued gaining market share in recent years despite the emergence of new online competitors. Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings on both, reasoning that the competitive threat from TikTok Shop is limited by this fundamental mismatch in product focus.
There is even a possibility that Zalando could benefit from TikTok Shop's expansion. The platform increasingly relies on logistics partners and merchant integration services to fulfill orders at scale, and Zalando possesses both. As TikTok Shop grows, it may need infrastructure that established retailers have already built.
The broader picture is one of expansion without disruption. TikTok Shop will likely continue growing across Europe as social commerce becomes a more normal part of how people shop. But it appears to be creating its own category—impulse purchases driven by creators—rather than cannibalizing the core business of retailers who have spent years building trust for deliberate, planned purchases. The two ecosystems may coexist, serving different shopping moods and different moments in the consumer journey.
Notable Quotes
TikTok Shop has built an attractive ecosystem for consumers, creators, and smaller brands, helping drive growth through short-form video content and affiliate marketing programs— Goldman Sachs report
There is limited overlap between TikTok Shop's best-selling products and the core offerings of major European fashion retailers— Goldman Sachs report
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why hasn't TikTok Shop disrupted the major retailers more, given how fast it's growing?
Because it's selling different things to different parts of the brain. When you open Zalando, you're looking for a specific jacket. When you scroll TikTok, you're not looking for anything—and that's when you buy the shapewear or the supplement you didn't know you needed.
So the affiliate model is really the secret here?
It's the whole engine. Eighty percent of sales from top merchants come through creators earning commissions. That's not a feature—that's the business. It turns every creator into a salesperson with skin in the game.
But Germany's $195 million in six months—that sounds significant.
It is significant for a platform that launched a year ago. But it's still a fraction of what Next or Zalando move in the same period. And it's concentrated in categories that don't compete directly with them.
Could TikTok Shop eventually move upmarket? Start selling the things people deliberately search for?
Possibly. But that would require changing the entire mechanic of how the platform works. Right now it's optimized for discovery and impulse. Deliberate shopping needs different infrastructure, different trust signals, different return policies.
So Goldman Sachs is saying this isn't a threat?
They're saying it's not a threat to the core business of established retailers. TikTok Shop is growing its own market—people buying things they didn't plan to buy. That's expansion, not displacement.
What happens if TikTok Shop figures out how to sell planned purchases?
Then the conversation changes entirely. But right now, there's no evidence they're trying to.