Everything learned from war should be implemented at the planning level
On the 1,118th day of a war that continues to reshape Europe's security order, Ukraine is simultaneously reorganizing its military command, courting post-war guarantees from Western allies, and watching as American and Russian diplomats edge toward ceasefire talks. President Zelenskyy's appointment of a battle-hardened general reflects a nation that refuses to separate the art of fighting from the art of surviving peace. The decisions made in the coming days — in Kyiv, Washington, Moscow, and the capitals of a newly mobilized Europe — may determine not only how this war ends, but whether its ending holds.
- Russian drones struck Kyiv again on March 17th, the latest wave in a campaign that sent ninety Shahed drones across nine Ukrainian regions the day before — the war's tempo has not slowed despite ceasefire talk.
- Zelenskyy replaced his general staff chief with Andriy Gnatov, a combat veteran, signaling that Ukraine intends to fight smarter even as it negotiates — battlefield lessons are now being written directly into strategic planning.
- France and Britain are drafting plans for modest troop deployments on Ukrainian soil that would not require Russian consent, while Macron insists Ukraine cannot surrender territory without receiving genuine security in return.
- Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff says a deal with Putin could come 'in the coming weeks, maybe,' but Moscow's diplomatic readouts remain conspicuously silent on any ceasefire terms.
- Lithuania is urging the EU to commit €40 billion annually in military aid and warns that deterrence forces will be necessary long after any peace agreement — because the threat of Russian return does not end with a ceasefire.
On the morning of March 17th, drones were over Kyiv again. Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported the attack as air defences fired back — the latest episode in a relentless campaign that had sent ninety Iranian Shahed drones across nine Ukrainian regions just the day before. The war, now past its 1,118th day, showed no sign of pausing for diplomacy.
Yet inside Ukraine's government, a quiet reorganization was underway. Zelenskyy announced that Andriy Gnatov — a man he described simply as 'a combat guy' — would take over as chief of the general staff, replacing Anatoliy Bargylevych. The logic was deliberate: Gnatov's job would be to take nearly three years of hard battlefield lessons and embed them into strategic planning itself. Defence Minister Rustem Umerov called it part of a broader transformation of the armed forces, one built around restructured command systems and new operational standards.
Across Europe and the Atlantic, a parallel negotiation was taking shape. Macron outlined France's vision for post-ceasefire security: allied nations, including France and Britain, could station several thousand troops at key locations across Ukraine without needing Russia's approval. He was unambiguous — Ukraine could not cede land without receiving real security guarantees in return, and Russia, he argued, was not genuinely seeking peace but escalating to extract maximum concessions before talks began.
The American diplomatic track moved cautiously forward. Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff said the president expected a productive call with Putin and believed a deal might come 'in the coming weeks, maybe.' Rubio and Lavrov spoke and agreed to stay in contact, though Moscow's readout made no mention of ceasefire terms — a telling silence.
Zelenskyy was also pressing Canada's new prime minister, Mark Carney, on the need for tougher economic pressure: targeting Russia's shadow fleet, its banking sector, every financial artery feeding the war. Carney carried those concerns to Paris and London, where meetings with Macron and Starmer awaited.
Lithuania, meanwhile, was pushing the EU to commit €40 billion in annual military aid and making a pointed argument: Ukraine would need sustained support even after a peace agreement, because deterrence against Russian return could not be allowed to lapse. Lithuania itself had spent nearly 3 percent of GDP on defence in 2024 and was planning to raise that to between 5 and 6 percent by 2030.
The picture that emerged was of a country preparing for multiple futures simultaneously — reorganizing to fight, negotiating to survive, and building a coalition committed not just to Ukraine's immediate defence but to its long-term existence. Whether any of it would hold depended on what Washington and Moscow said to each other in the days ahead.
On the morning of March 17th, Russian drones were in the air over Kyiv again. Vitali Klitschko, the city's mayor, reported the attack early, and witnesses heard the distinctive sound of Ukrainian air defences firing back. It was the latest in a relentless campaign—Moscow had sent ninety Iranian Shahed drones into nine Ukrainian regions just the day before. The war, now in its 1,118th day, showed no signs of slowing.
But inside Ukraine's government, something was shifting. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a significant change in military leadership: Andriy Gnatov would take over as chief of the general staff of the armed forces, replacing Anatoliy Bargylevych, who moved into a new role as chief inspector of the defence ministry. Zelenskyy described Gnatov in simple terms—"a combat guy"—and explained the logic behind the move. The new chief's job was to take everything Ukraine's brigades had learned through nearly three years of fighting and embed those hard-won lessons into the planning process itself. Defence Minister Rustem Umerov framed it as part of a larger transformation. "We are systematically transforming the armed forces of Ukraine to enhance their combat effectiveness," he said, pointing to restructured command systems and new operational standards.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic and in European capitals, a different kind of negotiation was taking shape. Emmanuel Macron was laying out France's vision for what comes after a ceasefire—if one comes. The French president said that France, Britain, and other allied nations could provide security guarantees to Ukraine without needing Russia's permission. These would not be massive deployments, Macron insisted, but rather contingents of several thousand troops stationed at key locations across Ukrainian territory. He was emphatic on one point: Ukraine could not give up land without getting real security in return. Russia, he said, was not genuinely seeking peace. Instead, Vladimir Putin was escalating the fighting and trying to extract maximum concessions before any negotiation began.
The diplomatic machinery was grinding forward. Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff said the American president expected to have a productive conversation with Putin this week and believed a deal could come "in the coming weeks, maybe." Witkoff claimed Putin had accepted the basic philosophy of the ceasefire proposal, though the Russian leader remained vague about what he actually wanted. The U.S. State Department's Marco Rubio had called his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, and the two agreed to stay in contact—though Moscow's readout made no mention of ceasefire terms.
Zelenskyy was also working the phones. He spoke with Mark Carney, Canada's new prime minister, and pressed him on the need for tougher sanctions. The focus was not just military aid but economic pressure: targeting Russia's shadow fleet, its banking sector, anything that funneled money into the war machine. Only that kind of comprehensive pressure, Zelenskyy argued, could force Putin to accept a lasting peace. Carney was heading to Paris to meet Macron and then to London to see British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, carrying these concerns with him.
Back in Europe, Lithuania was pushing for long-term military commitment. The country backed an EU proposal to pledge forty billion euros in military aid to Ukraine for 2025, with similar amounts needed in future years. Lithuania's foreign minister, Kestutis Budrys, made a crucial point: Ukraine would need sustained military support regardless of any peace agreement, because it would need to maintain strong deterrence forces to prevent Russia from returning. Lithuania itself was putting its money where its mouth was, having spent 2.85 percent of its GDP on defence in 2024 and committing to raise that to between 5 and 6 percent by 2030.
The picture emerging was one of Ukraine preparing for multiple futures at once. Militarily, it was reorganizing its command structure to fight more effectively. Diplomatically, it was securing promises of post-war security guarantees. Economically, it was pushing for sanctions that would cripple Russia's ability to wage war. And politically, it was building a coalition of Western nations committed to its long-term survival, not just its immediate defence. Whether any of this would matter depended on what happened in the conversations between Washington and Moscow in the days ahead.
Citações Notáveis
He is a combat guy. His task is to bring more combat experience. Everything that our brigades have learned from the war should be implemented 100% at the planning level.— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on appointing Andriy Gnatov
Under no circumstances can the Ukrainians make territorial concessions without having any security guarantees.— Emmanuel Macron
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why replace the general staff chief now, in the middle of the war? Why not wait until there's a ceasefire?
Because the war is still being fought, and every decision made at the planning level affects soldiers on the ground. Zelenskyy is saying the lessons from three years of combat need to be embedded into strategy immediately, not after a peace deal.
And Gnatov—what makes him different from Bargylevych?
He's described as a "combat guy," which suggests hands-on battlefield experience rather than purely administrative background. The idea is that someone who has lived through the fighting understands what works and what doesn't in ways a desk officer might not.
Let's talk about Macron's security guarantee proposal. Why does he keep saying Russia doesn't need to approve it?
Because if Ukraine signs a ceasefire, it becomes vulnerable. Russia could claim the agreement is violated and attack again. So the guarantee—foreign troops on Ukrainian soil—is meant to deter that. But it only works if those troops are actually there, regardless of what Moscow thinks.
A few thousand troops across a country the size of Ukraine seems thin.
It is. But Macron's point is that the troops aren't there to fight a war—they're there to make the cost of restarting one too high. It's deterrence, not defense. The real protection comes from Ukraine's own military staying strong.
Why is Zelenskyy so focused on sanctions in his call with Carney?
Because military aid alone doesn't stop Russia if Russia can keep funding its war machine. If you can cut off the money—the shadow fleet, the banking channels—you force Russia to choose between guns and butter. That's leverage in negotiations.
And Lithuania's commitment to spend 5 to 6 percent of GDP on defence—is that aimed at Russia or at reassuring Ukraine?
Both. Lithuania is on Russia's border, so it's defending itself. But by committing to sustained military spending, it's also signalling to Ukraine that the West isn't going to abandon it after a ceasefire. It's saying: we're building for the long term.