Our population is very susceptible to the flu right now
As Australia emerges from two years of pandemic restrictions, it faces an unexpected consequence of its own success: a population left deeply vulnerable to influenza, precisely because lockdowns suppressed the virus so effectively. The immunity that ordinarily builds through seasonal exposure was never acquired, vaccination rates fell, and now a healthcare system already worn thin by pandemic response must brace for a flu season of uncertain severity. Health officials are asking Australians to find the will for one more act of collective protection — knowing that the cost of hesitation may be measured in lives.
- Two years of near-absent flu circulation have left Australians with dramatically reduced immunity, creating conditions for a potentially severe outbreak as society reopens.
- Hospitals and clinics, already strained from prolonged pandemic response, could buckle under even a moderate flu season running alongside ongoing Covid cases.
- Dr. Paul Griffin warns that influenza kills thousands in severe years and is consistently underestimated by the public, particularly its threat to the elderly, young, and vulnerable.
- Health authorities are urging dual vaccination against both flu and Covid, but injection fatigue after years of public health campaigns is creating real resistance.
- Officials acknowledge the ask is a heavy one, yet insist the alternative — a preventable surge of illness overwhelming an exhausted system — is far worse.
As winter approaches, Australian health officials are sounding an alarm that carries a familiar ring: another vaccination is needed. But this time, the urgency is about influenza — a virus that has been conspicuously absent for two years, and whose absence has quietly created a crisis of its own.
The very measures that suppressed Covid so effectively — lockdowns, masks, social distancing — also kept the flu from circulating. Australians never got sick, which meant their bodies never built defenses. Vaccination rates dropped. Now, with restrictions lifted, the population is walking into flu season more vulnerable than it has been in years.
Dr. Paul Griffin, director of infectious diseases at Mater Health Services, put the stakes plainly in early April. Low flu numbers combined with low vaccination rates have left Australians highly susceptible. And the consequences are not abstract — in a severe year, influenza can claim thousands of Australian lives, with the elderly, the young, and those with underlying conditions bearing the heaviest toll. "The flu is actually quite significant," Griffin said. "It can certainly result in loss of life."
What sharpens the concern is the condition of the health system itself. After two years of pandemic response, hospitals have little spare capacity. A moderate flu season arriving alongside Covid could, in Griffin's words, create a "huge burden" the system may struggle to absorb. Authorities aren't predicting catastrophe, but they aren't dismissing the possibility either.
The prescription is simple: get vaccinated. The obstacle is human. After years of Covid shots, boosters, and relentless public health messaging, injection fatigue is real. Griffin acknowledged the weariness but held firm — the flu vaccine, and continued Covid protection, are both necessary. The virus, as officials are at pains to remind a tired public, does not negotiate with exhaustion.
As winter approaches Australia, health officials are making an urgent case for something that might sound familiar by now: another needle. But this time, the push isn't just about Covid. It's about the flu—a virus that has been quietly absent from Australian life for the past two years, and that absence has created a problem.
During lockdowns and strict social distancing, the flu barely circulated. Australians stayed home, wore masks, kept their distance. The measures that were designed to stop Covid turned out to be devastatingly effective against influenza too. But that protection came with a hidden cost. As the flu disappeared, so did the population's immunity to it. People didn't get sick, which meant their bodies never built defenses. Vaccination rates dropped. Now, with restrictions lifted and society opening up again, Australians are walking into flu season as vulnerable as they've been in years.
Dr. Paul Griffin, director of infectious diseases at Mater Health Services, laid out the stakes plainly in early April. This winter, he said, might be one of the most important years ever for Australians to get their flu shot. The maths is straightforward: low flu numbers over two years plus low vaccination rates equals a population primed for infection. "We've had really low flu numbers because what we did for Covid was really effective against the flu," Griffin explained. "We've had low flu vaccine rates, so our population is very susceptible to the flu right now."
The concern isn't abstract. The flu kills. Most people think of it as a minor illness—a few days of feeling rough, then recovery. But in a bad year, Australia can lose thousands of lives to influenza. The elderly are at highest risk, but young people and those with existing health vulnerabilities can die too. The virus doesn't discriminate, and its impact is often underestimated by the public. "The flu is actually quite significant," Griffin said. "It can certainly result in loss of life."
What makes this winter particularly precarious is the state of the health system itself. Hospitals and clinics are already stretched thin from two years of pandemic response. If the flu arrives in force—and especially if it arrives alongside Covid—the system could buckle. Even a moderate flu season combined with ongoing Covid cases would create what Griffin called a "huge burden" for infrastructure that has little spare capacity. Authorities aren't predicting a catastrophic year, but they're not ruling one out either. The unpredictability is part of the problem. Covid changed how people move, work, and gather. No one can say with certainty what that means for flu transmission.
The solution is straightforward in theory: get vaccinated. But there's a friction point that health officials are grappling with. Australians are tired of needles. After two years of Covid vaccination campaigns, booster shots, and public health messaging, injection fatigue is real. Now officials are asking people to add another shot to the calendar—the annual flu vaccine—and for some, a fourth Covid dose as well. "I know for a lot of people it does seem like a lot of injections that they may not have been used to," Griffin acknowledged. But he was clear: people will need these shots. The alternative is a winter where the health system is overwhelmed and preventable deaths climb.
The message from health authorities is unified but faces an uphill battle. Australians need to book their flu vaccine. They need to stay current on Covid protection. And they need to do it despite the fatigue, despite the skepticism, despite the sense that surely we've done enough. The virus doesn't care about fatigue. It only cares that the door is open.
Citações Notáveis
This year is perhaps one of the most important years ever for flu vaccination, given we've had really low flu numbers and low vaccine rates, leaving our population very susceptible— Dr. Paul Griffin, director of infectious diseases, Mater Health Services
Even a moderate flu season combined with Covid would create a huge burden for a healthcare system that is already strained— Dr. Paul Griffin
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does it matter so much that flu numbers were low during lockdown? Isn't that a good thing?
It is and it isn't. Yes, fewer people got sick. But immunity works like a muscle—if you don't use it, it atrophies. Two years without flu exposure means two years of people not building or refreshing their defenses. Now the virus is circulating again, and the population is defenseless.
So we're essentially starting from zero?
Close to it. And at the same time, fewer people got vaccinated during those years because the flu wasn't around to scare them into it. So you have this double vulnerability—no natural immunity, no vaccine protection.
Dr. Griffin mentioned a "huge burden" on the health system. What does that actually look like in a hospital?
Imagine wards filling up with flu patients at the same time Covid cases are still coming through. Staff are already exhausted. Equipment is already stretched. You're making impossible choices about who gets a bed, who waits, what gets postponed. It's not theoretical—it's what happened in bad flu years before Covid.
But he said they're not expecting a terrible season. So why the urgency?
Because they don't know. That's the honest answer. Covid changed everything about how people move and gather. No one can predict what that means for flu. So you prepare for the worst and hope for the best. The vaccine is the insurance policy.
What about the injection fatigue angle? Is that real or just an excuse?
It's real. People have been through a lot. But it's also a problem that needs solving, not accepting. The health system is betting that if they're clear about why it matters—that this is genuinely different from last year—people will show up.