Trading one fantasy for another—from forcing Iran to surrender to pretending a fragile deal can anchor a new Middle East order.
In an ambitious but contested diplomatic maneuver, Donald Trump has sought to bind the expansion of the Abraham Accords — his first-term legacy of Arab-Israeli normalization — to ongoing negotiations over Iran's nuclear ambitions, demanding immediate signatures from a broad coalition of Muslim-majority nations. The accords, which since 2020 have drawn five countries into formal relations with Israel and generated billions in trade, now strain under the weight of a Gaza war that has killed tens of thousands and inflamed public sentiment across the Arab world. What was once a framework for cautious optimism has become a pressure point, revealing how deeply the Palestinian question still shapes the limits of regional diplomacy.
- Trump publicly 'mandatorily requested' Arab and Muslim nations — including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, and Turkey — to sign the Abraham Accords immediately, tying the demand to a potential Iran nuclear deal.
- Pakistan flatly rejected the linkage, calling the two issues entirely separate, while most other nations responded with telling silence rather than agreement.
- Diplomats and analysts warn the strategy is overreaching — one former U.S. ambassador called it 'needlessly complicated and unrealistic,' and an Iran expert cautioned Trump was trading one geopolitical fantasy for another.
- The Gaza war, which has killed over 60,000 Palestinians according to local authorities, has poisoned the political atmosphere that normalization requires, with Saudi Arabia insisting there can be no deal without genuine progress toward Palestinian statehood.
- Despite the resistance, Trump's allies argue the bold linkage could catalyze regional integration, and Trump himself suggested even Iran might one day join a reimagined Middle Eastern order — a prospect Tehran has long refused to entertain.
Donald Trump is attempting to revive the Abraham Accords — the landmark normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states that defined his first term's foreign policy — but this time as a bargaining chip in a far more volatile negotiation. Following a phone call with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, Trump posted on social media that he was demanding all countries sign the accords immediately, framing their expansion as essential to making any Iran deal truly historic.
The original accords, brokered largely by Jared Kushner beginning in 2020, broke decades of Arab consensus that recognition of Israel must wait until Palestinian statehood was achieved. Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan have since joined, opening trade routes, direct flights, and security cooperation that generated over $4 billion in commerce by 2023. Before the deals, Israelis could barely set foot in Gulf states; after them, Tel Aviv and Dubai were connected by direct flights and a free trade agreement.
But the Gaza war has fundamentally altered the terrain. Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack killed roughly 1,200 Israelis, and the subsequent conflict has killed more than 60,000 Palestinians according to local authorities — a toll that has ignited public fury across the Arab world and made normalization politically toxic for many governments. Saudi Arabia, whose participation Trump has long coveted for its religious and political influence across the Islamic world, has insisted there can be no progress without meaningful movement toward Palestinian statehood.
The resistance to Trump's new demand has been swift. Pakistan rejected it outright, calling the accords and an Iran deal entirely unrelated. An unnamed U.S. official told Axios that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan were caught off guard by the request. Veteran diplomats have been blunt in their skepticism: former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro called the strategy 'needlessly complicated and unrealistic,' while Iran analyst Ali Vaez warned Trump was exchanging one geopolitical illusion for another — imagining a fragile agreement could anchor an entirely new regional order. Senator Lindsey Graham offered a dissenting view, arguing the linkage could forge an economic and security powerhouse. Trump himself went further, suggesting Iran might eventually join the accords if a peace deal were reached — a prospect Tehran, which has refused to recognize Israel for decades, has given no indication of entertaining.
Donald Trump is trying to resurrect one of his first term's signature foreign policy achievements—the Abraham Accords—but this time he's using it as leverage in a completely different negotiation. As he pursues talks to end the war with Iran, he has demanded that Arab nations formally sign on to the accords, which normalize diplomatic relations with Israel. On Monday, he posted on social media that he was "mandatorily requesting" all countries to sign immediately, following a phone call with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain. The demand has already encountered pushback. Pakistan publicly rejected the idea outright, while the other nations have largely remained silent.
The Abraham Accords themselves are a series of agreements designed to establish formal ties between Israel and Arab states. The first two were signed at the White House in 2020, when Bahrain and the UAE agreed to normalize relations under the Trump administration's push to integrate Israel more deeply into Middle Eastern affairs. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, played a central role in brokering those initial deals. Morocco and Sudan followed in 2020 and 2021 respectively, and Kazakhstan joined last year. Before these agreements, only Egypt and Jordan had formally recognized Israel. For decades, most Arab governments had insisted they would not establish ties with Israel until a Palestinian state was created—a position the accords fundamentally broke. Palestinian leaders condemned the deals as abandonment of their cause, and Iran portrayed them as a regional threat.
The practical effects of the accords have been substantial. They opened channels for direct diplomacy, trade, tourism, and security cooperation. Before the agreements, Israelis could barely travel to Gulf states like the UAE and Bahrain, and citizens of those countries faced restrictions going the other way. In some Arab nations, even phone calls to Israel had been blocked. Since the deals were signed, Israel and the UAE have built close economic and security ties, including defense cooperation and a free trade agreement. Direct flights now connect Tel Aviv and Dubai. Trade among the accords countries exceeded $4 billion in 2023, according to the Abraham Accords Peace Institute.
But the Gaza war has fractured this progress. After Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel in 2023, which killed roughly 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals, the conflict has killed more than 60,000 Palestinians according to local authorities. Public anger across the Arab world has intensified, complicating governments' efforts to deepen ties with Israel. The accords remain formally in place, but the political ground beneath them has shifted.
Trump's new demand faces serious obstacles. Pakistan has flatly rejected it. An unnamed U.S. official told Axios that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan were caught off guard by the request. Trump acknowledged in his social media post that "one or two" countries might have reasons not to sign, but he framed the accords expansion as essential to making an Iran deal "a far more Historic Event." He even suggested Iran could eventually join if a peace deal was reached, though Tehran has refused to recognize Israel for decades. Trump has long hoped Saudi Arabia would sign because of its political and religious influence across the Arab and Islamic worlds. Before the Gaza war, the Biden administration had been pursuing a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement that would have included U.S. security guarantees and nuclear cooperation. But the conflict froze those talks, with Saudi officials insisting there could be no normalization without real progress toward Palestinian statehood.
Diplomats are skeptical of Trump's strategy. Dan Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel now at the Atlantic Council, called the attempt to tie the accords expansion to an Iran deal "needlessly complicated and unrealistic." A Pakistani source told Reuters that the Abraham Accords and a U.S.-Iran deal "are not interlinked and cannot be made so," and that Pakistan was "under no compulsion to adhere to any such demand." Some of Trump's allies, however, have embraced the idea. Senator Lindsey Graham argued that linking the two issues could drive regional integration and create "a powerhouse for economic opportunity." Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, saw the strategy differently: Trump was trying to frame a potential Iran agreement as "an Abraham Accords sequel: good for Israel, good for the region, tough enough for Washington." But Vaez warned that Trump was "trading one fantasy for another—from forcing Iran to surrender to pretending a fragile deal can anchor a new Middle East order." Netanyahu's office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Citações Notáveis
I am mandatorily requesting that all Countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords.— Donald Trump, in a social media post
The Abraham Accords and US-Iran deal are not interlinked and cannot be made so. Pakistan is under no compulsion to adhere to any such demand.— A Pakistani source familiar with the matter, to Reuters
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why is Trump linking these two separate issues—the Iran deal and the Abraham Accords—together now?
He's trying to solve a political problem. An Iran deal is unpopular with Israel and his domestic supporters. By packaging it with Arab normalization with Israel, he makes it look like a regional win, not a concession to Tehran.
But the Gaza war has made Arab governments reluctant to get closer to Israel, hasn't it?
Exactly. The public anger is real—60,000 Palestinians dead. Saudi Arabia and Qatar face genuine domestic pressure. They can't just sign a piece of paper and pretend the conflict doesn't exist.
So why would any of them sign?
Economic interest, security cooperation, the U.S. relationship itself. But right now, those incentives are being drowned out by the human cost of the war.
Is there any chance this actually works?
Pakistan has already said no. Saudi Arabia is silent, which is telling. Trump seems to be hoping leverage and pressure will move them, but diplomacy doesn't usually work that way when the ground has shifted this much.
What happens if they refuse?
Then Trump either backs down or tries to force the issue, which could damage U.S. relationships in the region. Either way, the accords expansion stalls.