The regional party had held its ground against the national machinery.
In the world's largest democracy, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections offered a reminder that national ambition must still reckon with local roots. West Bengal, a state of 42 parliamentary seats and deep political identity, returned a decisive verdict on June 3rd: Trinamool Congress won 28 constituencies to the BJP's 10, confounding pollsters who had forecast a far closer contest. The outcome speaks to something enduring in Indian politics — that the machinery of a national campaign, however formidable, does not always displace the bonds between a regional party and the people it has long governed.
- Exit polls had forecast a near-even battle, with some surveys projecting the BJP winning as many as 31 seats — making the actual result a significant polling failure and a political shock.
- TMC swept constituencies across West Bengal's diverse geography — urban Kolkata, the industrial Howrah belt, the rural south, and the western districts — leaving the BJP with wins only in isolated pockets of the north and west.
- The campaign was shadowed by mutual allegations of voter intimidation and violence, reflecting the raw intensity of a contest where both parties understood that West Bengal's 42 seats could reshape national coalition arithmetic.
- With the BJP having held 18 seats in 2019, the party needed to close the gap against TMC's 22 — instead, the gap widened dramatically, turning a hoped-for breakthrough into a containment.
- As counting concluded in the final constituencies, the verdict was already reshaping calculations for the 18th Lok Sabha: regional parties, at least in West Bengal, had demonstrated they could hold their ground against the full weight of a national campaign.
By late evening on June 3rd, with counting still underway in three constituencies, the shape of West Bengal's verdict was unmistakable. Trinamool Congress had secured 28 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP, which had entered the race as a credible challenger, ended with 10. Congress claimed one. The exit polls — which had given the BJP a realistic path to 21 or more seats, with some surveys projecting as many as 31 — had been wrong, and significantly so.
West Bengal carries unusual weight in any Indian election. Its 42 seats make it one of the most consequential states in Parliament, and its political landscape — stretching from Kolkata's urban constituencies to the rural south and the northern hill districts — had been the site of an intense, often bitter campaign. The BJP had hoped to build on its 2019 performance, when it won 18 seats to TMC's 22. Instead, the gap widened.
TMC's victories spread across the state's geography. In Kolkata, the party took all three constituencies. In the industrial belt around Howrah, Prasun Banerjee prevailed. Across the rural south — Mathurapur, Diamond Harbour — TMC candidates crossed the finish line. In Birbhum, Satabdi Roy won. In the north, Kalyani Krishna took Raiganj. The BJP's ten wins — in Darjeeling, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, Balurghat, Purulia — were real, but they amounted to a containment rather than the breakthrough the party had sought.
The campaign had been marked by allegations of violence and intimidation from both sides, a reflection of how much was at stake — not just West Bengal's parliamentary representation, but the broader question of whether regional parties could withstand the BJP's national machinery. The answer, at least here, was yes. As the final tallies settled, the results began reshaping the arithmetic of coalition-building in the new Parliament, a reminder that in India's vast political landscape, the ground-level bonds between a regional party and its voters can still prove decisive.
The counting was still underway in three constituencies when the picture became clear: Trinamool Congress had swept West Bengal's Lok Sabha elections with a commanding margin that defied nearly every prediction made in the weeks before voting began. By 10:50 p.m. on June 3rd, TMC had secured 28 of the state's 42 seats, with one more in its column but not yet officially called. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which had entered the contest as a serious challenger, ended with 10 seats and leads in two others. Congress claimed a single seat. The results represented a decisive rejection of the national campaign that had dominated Indian politics for months.
West Bengal matters in ways that extend far beyond the state itself. With 42 members to send to the 18th Lok Sabha, it ranks among the most consequential battlegrounds in any Indian election. The state's urban centers—Kolkata Dakshin, Kolkata Uttar, Jadavpur—sit alongside rural strongholds like Cooch Behar and Darjeeling. The campaign had focused on these flashpoint constituencies, each one a test of whether the BJP's national machinery could displace the regional party that has governed the state since 2011.
The exit polls had suggested something different. In the days before voting, multiple surveys projected a tight race. The ABP-CVoter poll estimated the BJP would win between 23 and 27 seats. India Today's Axis poll pushed that range higher, to 26 to 31. Even the most conservative forecast gave the BJP a realistic path to 21 seats. These projections reflected the intensity of the campaign and the genuine uncertainty about whether Mamata Banerjee's party could hold its ground against an opponent with vastly greater resources and the machinery of the central government at its disposal.
What actually happened told a different story. TMC candidates won across the state's geography. In Kolkata's three constituencies—Dakshin, Uttar, and the central Jadavpur seat—TMC took all three. Saugata Ray held Dum Dum. Kakoli Gosh Dastidar won Barasat. In the industrial belt around Howrah, Prasun Banerjee prevailed. Across the rural south, in constituencies like Mathurapur and Diamond Harbour, TMC candidates crossed the finish line. The party's reach extended to Birbhum in the west, where Satabdi Roy won, and to the northern districts where Kalyani Krishna took Raiganj.
The BJP's ten victories came in pockets of strength—Darjeeling in the north, where Raju Bista won; Alipurduar, where Manoj Tigga prevailed; Jalpaiguri, where Dr. Jayanta Kr Roy succeeded. In the western reaches, the party won Balurghat and Purulia. But these wins, while real, amounted to a containment rather than a breakthrough. The party had hoped to translate its national momentum into a decisive shift in a state where it had finished second in 2019 with 18 seats to TMC's 22. Instead, the gap had widened.
The campaign itself had been marked by allegations of violence and intimidation. TMC accused the BJP and central security forces of orchestrating a campaign designed to suppress voters and manipulate the outcome. The BJP countered with its own claims of violence perpetrated by TMC workers. These accusations reflected the intensity of the contest and the high stakes involved—not just for control of West Bengal's representation in Parliament, but for the broader question of whether regional parties could survive the BJP's national campaign machinery.
As the final counts were being tallied, the implications began to settle in. The exit polls had been wrong, and significantly so. The regional party had held its ground. In a national election dominated by one party's campaign, one state had chosen differently. The results would shape the arithmetic of coalition-building in the new Parliament, and they suggested that despite the BJP's organizational reach and resources, the ground-level politics of states like West Bengal remained contested terrain. The counting would continue in the remaining constituencies, but the essential verdict was already clear.
Citas Notables
TMC alleged that the BJP, supported by central forces, orchestrated a campaign of fear to manipulate the elections— TMC campaign allegations
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
The exit polls were predicting a much tighter race—some even gave the BJP a chance to win more seats than TMC. What went wrong with those forecasts?
The exit polls reflected what the campaigns looked like on the surface—intense, well-funded, with the BJP bringing national machinery to bear. But they didn't account for how deeply rooted TMC is in West Bengal's actual political life. The party has governed the state for over a decade. That matters more than any national campaign.
But the BJP had real momentum going in. They'd been second in 2019 with 18 seats. Why didn't they close the gap?
Because winning seats in a state isn't just about momentum or money. It's about having candidates people will actually vote for, about understanding local grievances, about having a presence in villages and neighborhoods. TMC had all of that. The BJP had the national narrative, but not the ground.
The violence allegations during the campaign—how much did that shape the outcome?
That's harder to measure. Both sides accused each other. What we know is that voters went to the polls despite the tensions, and they voted for TMC in overwhelming numbers. Whether the violence suppressed some votes or energized others, the net result was clear.
So what does this mean for the national government that's being formed?
It means that even in a national election dominated by one party, regional parties can hold their own. West Bengal sends 42 members to Parliament. TMC will send 28 of them. That's real power in coalition arithmetic, if it comes to that. It also suggests that the BJP's national campaign, for all its reach, has limits.