The Fed is risking genuine damage to the economy itself
Na última sexta-feira, Wall Street confrontou uma das contradições mais persistentes do capitalismo moderno: boas notícias para os trabalhadores tornaram-se más notícias para os mercados. A criação de 263 mil empregos nos Estados Unidos — acima do esperado — reforçou a convicção de que a Reserva Federal continuará a apertar as condições financeiras, empurrando os principais índices para quedas superiores a dois por cento. Num momento em que a fronteira entre combater a inflação e provocar recessão se torna cada vez mais ténue, os investidores debatem-se com uma questão antiga: até onde pode ir um banco central antes de curar a doença destruindo o doente?
- Um mercado de trabalho surpreendentemente robusto transformou-se em gatilho de venda, com 263 mil empregos criados a sinalizar que a Fed não tem razão para abrandar os aumentos de juros.
- O Nasdaq afundou 3,80%, o S&P 500 recuou 2,80% e o Dow Jones perdeu 2,11%, com a tecnologia a liderar as perdas enquanto a energia resistia apoiada na subida do petróleo.
- Os operadores de mercado aumentaram imediatamente as apostas numa subida de 75 pontos base em novembro, tornando o aperto monetário não uma possibilidade, mas uma certeza crescente.
- Economistas alertam que os efeitos do ciclo de restrição ainda não se fizeram sentir plenamente — e que, quando chegarem, o banco central poderá já não conseguir inverter o rumo a tempo.
- Apesar da turbulência de sexta-feira, a semana fechou em terreno positivo, revelando um mercado dividido entre o medo do que aí vem e a esperança frágil de que o pior já passou.
O relatório de emprego de sexta-feira chegou como um aviso disfarçado de boa notícia. A economia norte-americana criou 263 mil postos de trabalho no último mês — mais do que os economistas antecipavam — e a taxa de desemprego desceu para 3,5%. São números que, em circunstâncias normais, inspirariam confiança. Mas Wall Street leu-os de outra forma: um mercado de trabalho forte significa que a Reserva Federal não tem motivo para pausar a sua campanha de subida de juros. E os mercados reagiram em conformidade.
Os três principais índices registaram quedas acentuadas. O Dow Jones perdeu 2,11%, o S&P 500 recuou 2,80% e o Nasdaq, dominado por ações tecnológicas, afundou 3,80%. Dez dos onze setores do S&P 500 caíram mais de um por cento. Apenas a energia resistiu, sustentada pela valorização do petróleo. Os operadores apressaram-se a aumentar as apostas numa nova subida de 75 pontos base na reunião de novembro da Fed.
As vozes mais cautelosas do mercado não escondem a preocupação. Jim Paulsen, do Leuthold Group, considera que as taxas de juro atingiram níveis extremos e que a Fed arrisca causar danos reais à economia. Joseph LaVorgna, do SMBC Nikko Securities, vai mais longe: os mercados ainda não incorporaram um cenário de recessão, e os efeitos do aperto monetário ainda não se fizeram sentir por completo. 'O banco central continuará até que as condições mudem', advertiu, 'e nessa altura o momentum será impossível de inverter.'
A semana, porém, não foi inteiramente negativa. As fortes sessões do início de outubro compensaram três dias consecutivos de perdas, deixando os índices com ganhos semanais modestos. O mercado permanece suspenso entre dois impulsos contrários: a ansiedade imediata face à determinação da Fed e a esperança, cada vez mais frágil, de que o ciclo de aperto possa estar próximo do fim.
The jobs report landed on Friday like a stone dropped into still water, and Wall Street flinched. The U.S. labor market had added 263,000 positions in the latest month—more than economists had predicted—and unemployment had ticked down to 3.5 percent. On the surface, these are the numbers a healthy economy produces. But markets read them as a warning. A strong jobs market meant the Federal Reserve would have no reason to ease off the accelerator, no excuse to pause its campaign of raising interest rates. The stock market fell hard on that realization.
The three major indices all dropped sharply on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.11 percent, closing at 29,296.79 points, though it had fallen even further during trading. The S&P 500 declined 2.80 percent to 3,639.66 points after sliding 3.31 percent at its worst. The Nasdaq Composite, heavy with technology stocks, plunged 3.80 percent, a retreat from an intraday loss of 4.20 percent. Ten of the eleven major sectors within the S&P 500 fell more than one percent. Technology bore the brunt of the selling. Energy was the sole holdout, buoyed by rising oil prices.
The employment figures themselves were straightforward. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy had created more than 263,000 jobs, surpassing the Refinitiv consensus forecast of 250,000. The unemployment rate had fallen from 3.7 percent to 3.5 percent. By conventional measures, this represented labor market strength. But in the context of the Fed's current mission—to cool inflation by making borrowing more expensive and economic activity more difficult—strength in employment became a problem. Traders immediately increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by 75 basis points at its November meeting.
Jim Paulsen, chief strategist at the Leuthold Group, saw the situation as increasingly precarious. Interest rates, he told Reuters, had reached extreme levels. The Fed, in his view, was now risking genuine damage to the economy itself—a risk he attributed to pressure felt within the central bank's leadership. Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for SMBC Nikko Securities' U.S. operations, shared the concern. The market, he argued, had not yet priced in a recession scenario. The full effects of the Fed's tightening campaign had not yet rippled through the economy. "We haven't felt all the consequences yet," LaVorgna said. "The central bank will keep going until conditions change, and by then the momentum will be impossible to reverse."
Yet the week as a whole told a different story. Despite Friday's sharp decline, the three major indices finished the week with gains. The first two trading sessions of October had been strong enough to offset three consecutive days of losses, leaving investors with a small net positive for the period. The market remained caught between two competing narratives: the immediate anxiety about what the Fed would do next, and the lingering hope that perhaps the worst of the tightening cycle was already behind. The employment report had sharpened the first anxiety considerably, leaving little room for the second hope to breathe.
Citações Notáveis
Interest rates have reached extreme levels, and the Fed risks causing real economic damage through its tightening campaign.— Jim Paulsen, chief strategist, Leuthold Group
The market hasn't yet priced in a recession, and the full effects of the Fed's policy haven't been felt by the economy yet.— Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist, SMBC Nikko Securities
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why did strong job numbers hurt the stock market? Shouldn't that be good news?
It would be in normal times. But the Fed is trying to slow the economy down to fight inflation. A hot job market means people keep spending, inflation stays high, and the Fed has to keep raising rates. The market hates that.
So investors were betting on the Fed to stop raising rates soon?
Exactly. They were hoping the economy would weaken enough that the Fed would pause or cut. This jobs report killed that hope. It said the economy is still strong, so the Fed keeps tightening.
The economists quoted seem worried about something deeper than just rate hikes.
They are. They're saying the Fed might be overdoing it—that by the time the damage from all these rate hikes shows up in the real economy, it'll be too late to stop it. Recessions have a lag. You feel the pain months after the policy starts.
But the week still ended positive for stocks. How does that square with Friday's drop?
The first two days of October were strong. They built up enough cushion that Friday's 2-3 percent losses didn't wipe out the week's gains. But it's fragile. One bad day doesn't erase the underlying worry.
What are investors watching for now?
The Fed's November meeting. If they raise by 75 basis points again, it signals they're not done tightening. If they slow down, it might mean they're seeing cracks in the economy. That's the next inflection point.