The trial will almost certainly extend into the next Congress
In the Philippines, a constitutional drama is unfolding that may outlast the very legislature that set it in motion. Vice President Sara Duterte, once a trusted ally of President Marcos, was impeached by the House on sweeping charges — from graft to an alleged assassination plot — yet the Senate trial that will determine her fate may not begin until after May's midterm elections, leaving her judgment to lawmakers not yet in office. It is a reminder that in democratic systems, the machinery of accountability is rarely as swift as the gravity of the moment demands, and that political alliances, however firm they appear, carry within them the seeds of their own undoing.
- A 215-vote House majority has placed the full weight of constitutional accountability on a sitting vice president, signaling a rupture at the highest levels of Philippine power.
- The Senate trial cannot begin in earnest until rules are approved and sessions convened, leaving the process suspended in procedural limbo as a national election approaches.
- Senate President Escudero has all but confirmed the trial will spill into the incoming 20th Congress, meaning senators not yet elected will likely cast the decisive votes.
- President Marcos could theoretically accelerate proceedings through a special session, but any such move would itself require a Senate vote — adding another layer of political calculation to an already charged situation.
- If convicted, Duterte faces permanent removal from office and a lifetime ban from public service — a stunning fall for a politician who, just three years ago, was considered a frontrunner for the presidency.
Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte's impeachment trial will almost certainly not begin before the country's May midterm elections, Senate President Francis Escudero confirmed Thursday — meaning a largely different set of lawmakers may ultimately decide her fate. The House voted 215 to 306 the day prior to impeach her on charges including constitutional violations, betrayal of public trust, graft, and an alleged assassination plot against President Marcos.
Escudero offered no firm timeline, noting that the trial's mechanics depend on rules the current Senate has yet to approve. Because the impeachment court can only function when the Senate is in session, even proceedings begun now would almost certainly carry over into the incoming 20th Congress, which takes office in late July. A presidential special session could theoretically speed things along, but would itself require a Senate vote.
The charges are sweeping: financial fraud, alleged links to extrajudicial killings in Davao during the drug war, and a November speech in which Duterte said she had arranged for someone to kill Marcos if she were assassinated — comments she later described as expressions of frustration rather than genuine threats.
The political arc is striking. Duterte entered the 2022 election cycle as a likely presidential contender, instead stepping aside to join Marcos on the ticket as his vice president. That alliance has since collapsed into open antagonism. House Deputy Majority Leader Lorenz Defensor acknowledged the trial may cross congressional terms and deferred to the Senate to chart the path forward. The timing of elections now hangs over the entire proceeding, reshaping who will sit in judgment — and what political winds will be blowing when they do.
The impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte will almost certainly not begin until after the country's midterm elections in May, Senate President Francis Escudero said Thursday, meaning an entirely different group of lawmakers could end up deciding her fate. The House of Representatives had voted the day before to impeach her on charges of constitutional violations, betrayal of public trust, graft and corruption, and other high crimes. Two hundred fifteen of the chamber's 306 members voted in favor.
Escudero offered no firm timeline for when the Senate might convene to hear the case. The decision rests with the 24 sitting senators, he said, and will depend on rules they have yet to approve. Even if the trial begins before the current Congress adjourns, he suggested it would almost certainly extend into the next one—the 20th Congress—which takes office in late July after nationwide elections on May 12. "That's almost a sure thing now," he told reporters.
The mechanics of the trial remain fluid. Escudero explained that the impeachment court has no independent existence; it can only function when the Senate is in session. This means that even if current senators begin hearing evidence, the incoming class could take over and complete the proceedings. President Ferdinand Marcos, who has previously dismissed the impeachment effort, could theoretically call a special session to accelerate the process, but any such move would require a Senate vote to approve.
The charges against Duterte span serious territory. The House complaints, filed in December, allege financial fraud, an alleged assassination plot against Marcos, and connections to extrajudicial killings carried out during the drug war in her home region of Davao. The assassination allegation stems from a November speech in which Duterte said she had ordered someone to kill Marcos if she herself were assassinated. She later walked back those comments, saying she had merely been expressing frustration with the administration's failures rather than issuing a genuine threat.
Duterte has not publicly responded to her impeachment. The political reversal is stark. In 2022, she was widely expected to run for president but instead stepped aside to support Marcos and accepted the vice presidential slot on his ticket. The alliance fractured over the past year, with Duterte becoming increasingly critical of the administration. If convicted in the Senate trial, she would be removed from office and permanently barred from holding any public position again.
House Deputy Majority Leader Lorenz Defensor acknowledged Thursday that the trial "may cross over to the next Congress" and said the House was deferring to the Senate to determine how to proceed. The Senate, he suggested, would act as an impartial body in adjudicating the charges. The timing of the trial—whether it happens before or after the May elections—will reshape the political composition of the judges deciding Duterte's case, a fact that hangs over the entire process.
Citas Notables
The trial will almost certainly extend into the next Congress. That's almost a sure thing now.— Senate President Francis Escudero
We leave it up to the Senate as a separate body and as an impartial body to adjudicate how they will proceed with the impeachment process.— House Deputy Majority Leader Lorenz Defensor
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does it matter whether the trial happens before or after May?
Because the senators voting to convict or acquit her will be different people. The current 24 will be replaced by new ones elected in May. A senator who votes now might not be there to see the verdict.
So the trial could drag on that long?
Almost certainly. Escudero said it's "almost a sure thing" it extends into the next Congress. The impeachment court only exists when the Senate is in session, so there's no separate machinery to keep it moving.
What happens if Marcos calls a special session to speed things up?
He could try, but the Senate would have to vote to approve it. And there's no indication they will. Right now, the Senate is controlling the pace.
What does Duterte say about all this?
Nothing publicly yet. She's been silent since the House vote. But her November speech—where she said she'd ordered someone to kill Marcos—is the thing that triggered the assassination plot charge.
Did she actually threaten him?
She says no. She called it an expression of frustration with his administration. But the House took it seriously enough to include it in the impeachment articles.
This is a complete reversal from 2022, isn't it?
Completely. She was supposed to run for president but backed Marcos instead and took the vice presidency. Now they're at war. If she's convicted, she's out of office and can never hold public office again.