We are participating symbolically because the law says you cannot boycott elections consecutively.
In a nation still carrying the wounds of civil war and ethnic insurgency, Ethiopia cast its votes on a Monday in early June — though millions could not participate, and an entire region was barred from the polls entirely. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, once celebrated as a liberator and Nobel laureate, now governs a country where press freedom has eroded, opposition voices have grown symbolic, and the promise of democratic renewal has given way to the familiar weight of centralized power. The election was less a measure of the people's will than a mirror held up to the distance between a nation's aspirations and its present reality.
- Polling stations in Oromia and Amhara never opened, and Tigray's six million people were shut out entirely — making this one of the most geographically incomplete elections in Ethiopia's modern history.
- Abiy Ahmed, who once freed journalists and made peace with Eritrea, now presides over a country ranked 148th in press freedom, with the BBC itself denied accreditation to cover the vote.
- Opposition parties are participating in name only — one veteran politician admitted his party entered solely to avoid being deregistered, a sign of how hollow the competitive landscape has become.
- Armed insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia killed more than 9,400 people in 2024 alone, while a resurgent TPLF in Tigray and shifting Eritrean allegiances raise the specter of renewed northern conflict.
- Regional analysts warn that without mediation, the combination of internal insurgencies, disputed territories, and diplomatic miscalculation could push Ethiopia toward another devastating war.
Ethiopia's general election arrived on a Monday in early June, but it was an election with visible absences. Polling stations in parts of Oromia and Amhara — two of the country's most populous regions — never opened due to security threats. More strikingly, the entire northern region of Tigray, home to six million people and still recovering from a civil war that ended in 2022, was barred from voting altogether. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed cast his ballot and spoke of national progress, while his Prosperity Party was widely expected to secure another commanding majority in parliament.
When Abiy took office in 2018, the world saw a reformer. He freed imprisoned journalists, brokered peace with Eritrea after two decades of stalemate, and won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Seven years later, that narrative had inverted. Human Rights Watch documented arbitrary arrests. Reporters Without Borders ranked Ethiopia 148th out of 180 countries for press freedom. The BBC was denied accreditation. After Reuters had three reporters' credentials revoked, the Committee to Protect Journalists warned of a troubling pattern of repression. One veteran opposition politician told the BBC his party was participating only symbolically — to avoid deregistration.
The government pointed to economic gains: GDP per capita projected to reach $1,133 in 2026, up from $641 a decade earlier, and rapid urban development in Addis Ababa. But that growth coexisted with grinding insecurity. Fano militias in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia continued fighting government forces, with conflict monitors documenting more than 9,400 deaths in those regions in 2024 alone and hundreds of thousands displaced.
Tigray presented a separate and escalating danger. The TPLF had muscled back into power in May, electing a wartime leader to head its interim administration — angering Abiy's government. Tensions over party registration, disputed territory, and Eritrea's shifting allegiances were all deteriorating simultaneously. A Horn of Africa analyst at the International Crisis Group warned that while Abiy would likely be re-elected, insurgencies and the risk of renewed northern war remained real. Young voters in Addis Ababa expressed hope for stability, but the election itself told a harder story — a vote that could not reach millions of citizens, held in a country where the leader once celebrated as a democrat now faced accusations of suppressing the very freedoms he had promised to protect.
Ethiopia held its general election on a Monday in early June, but the vote unfolded across a fractured landscape. Polling stations in parts of Oromia and Amhara—two of the country's most populous regions—never opened their doors. The electoral commission confirmed that 143 stations failed to operate due to security threats, though long lines formed at the more than 50,000 stations that did function. The entire northern region of Tigray, home to six million people and still recovering from a devastating civil war that ended in 2022, was barred from voting altogether.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in power since 2018, cast his ballot and spoke of national progress. "The Ethiopian people have demonstrated that they do not need anyone to advise or lecture them," he said, gesturing toward Ethiopia's journey since the fall of the Marxist military regime three decades earlier. His Prosperity Party was widely expected to secure another commanding majority in the 547-seat parliament, needing at least 274 seats to form the next government. Yet the election took place under a shadow that has grown darker with each passing year of his tenure.
When Abiy first took office, the world saw him as a reformer. He released hundreds of imprisoned journalists and politicians. He brokered a peace deal with Eritrea after two decades of military stalemate, work that earned him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. But seven years later, the narrative had inverted. Human Rights Watch documented arbitrary arrests of journalists. Reporters Without Borders ranked Ethiopia 148th out of 180 countries for press freedom. The BBC itself was denied accreditation to cover the election. After Reuters had three reporters' credentials revoked in February, the Committee to Protect Journalists warned of a "troubling pattern of repressive regulatory action" against independent media.
Opposition voices had grown muted. Merera Gurdina, a veteran politician from the Oromo Federalist Congress, told the BBC that his party was participating "symbolically" only to avoid deregistration—a stark admission that the election had become less competitive than at any recent point in Ethiopian history. The Tigray People's Liberation Front, which once governed the north, found itself effectively banned after the electoral board demanded it register as a new party, a requirement the TPLF rejected. The group had led Tigray during the 2020-2022 civil war, a conflict that killed an estimated 600,000 people and left the region on the edge of famine.
Abiy's government pointed to economic gains and urban transformation. The capital, Addis Ababa, was undergoing rapid development through infrastructure projects, though these initiatives had displaced tens of thousands of residents through mass demolitions. The International Monetary Fund and World Bank supported his economic reforms. Ethiopia's GDP per capita was projected to reach $1,133 in 2026, up from $641 a decade earlier. With 135.9 million people, Ethiopia remained Africa's second most populous nation and one of its fastest-growing economies, despite the chaos.
Yet that growth coexisted with grinding insecurity. Fano militias in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia continued fighting government forces, each seeking greater ethnic autonomy and feeling betrayed by Abiy's shift toward centralized governance. The conflict monitoring group Acled documented more than 9,400 deaths in those two regions in 2024 alone, with hundreds of thousands forced from their homes. The government claimed 97 percent of areas in Amhara and Oromia were ready to hold elections, but the Coalition for Ethiopian Unity, an opposition alliance, disputed this, saying there were no conditions safe enough for campaigning.
Tigray presented a separate and escalating danger. In May, the TPLF had muscled back into power, electing Debretsion Gebremichael—who had led the region during the war—to lead its interim administration, angering Abiy's government which had reappointed the previous leader without consultation. Tensions had been deteriorating for months over whether the TPLF needed to register as a new party, over disputed territory lost during the war, and over Eritrea's shifting allegiances. Reports suggested Eritrea, which shares a border with Tigray and had fought alongside the government during the civil war, was now drawing closer to the TPLF. Magnus Taylor, a Horn of Africa expert at the International Crisis Group, warned that while Abiy would likely be re-elected, "various internal insecurity issues, insurgencies and a risk of a new war in the north" remained real threats. Regional mediation, he argued, was needed to prevent miscalculation and keep disputes in the realm of negotiation rather than violence.
Young voters in Addis Ababa expressed hope that the election would bring stability. Fenet Dereje, a resident of the capital, spoke of how instability could derail her education and restrict her movement. Yet the election itself was a symptom of deeper fractures—a vote that could not reach millions of citizens, that excluded an entire region, and that took place in a country where the leader once celebrated as a democrat now faced accusations of suppressing the very freedoms he had promised to protect.
Notable Quotes
The Ethiopian people have demonstrated that they do not need anyone to advise or lecture them in order to build their state and establish a democratic system.— Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, casting his vote
We are participating symbolically because the law says you cannot boycott elections consecutively. We are participating, mainly to avoid deregistration.— Merera Gurdina, opposition politician and member of the Oromo Federalist Congress
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
How did Abiy go from Nobel Prize winner to someone accused of authoritarianism in just a few years?
He didn't change overnight. When he arrived in 2018, he genuinely released political prisoners and opened space for dissent. But then he faced real insurgencies—in Tigray, in Amhara, in Oromia—and his response was to tighten control rather than negotiate. The Tigray war especially hardened him. Once you've fought a war that kills 600,000 people, it's hard to go back to being the reformer.
But the election is still happening. Doesn't that count for something?
It's happening, yes, but it's not reaching everyone. Tigray is completely shut out. Huge parts of Amhara and Oromia didn't vote. And the opposition parties are so weakened that they're just showing up to avoid being deregistered. That's not democracy—that's theater.
What's the real risk here?
Tigray. The TPLF just took back power in the region, Abiy's government is furious about it, and Eritrea—which borders Tigray—is getting involved. If those three actors miscalculate, you could have a new war. That's what keeps analysts up at night.
And the people voting in Addis Ababa? What do they think?
They're hoping the election brings stability. They're young, many are voting for the first time, and they just want things to be normal. They don't have the luxury of caring about press freedom indexes. They care about whether they can finish school and move around safely.
So Abiy will win again.
Almost certainly. His party will dominate. But winning an election and actually governing a country this fractured are two different things. He might win the vote and still lose control of the situation.