A Lebanese state that can't control its own armed groups can't deliver what Israel demands
Pela primeira vez em décadas, representantes de Israel e do Líbano se encontrarão diretamente em Washington na próxima semana, carregando o peso de uma guerra que já ceifou quase dois mil vidas e o fardo de uma história marcada por ocupações, acordos frágeis e desconfianças profundas. O encontro não nasce de boa vontade espontânea, mas da pressão americana sobre Netanyahu e da exigência iraniana de que Israel recue no Líbano antes de qualquer avanço diplomático com Teerã. O que está em jogo não é apenas um cessar-fogo local: é a arquitetura de estabilidade de toda uma região que há muito vive à beira do abismo.
- Desde março, ataques aéreos israelenses mataram ao menos 1.888 pessoas no Líbano e deslocaram milhares de civis do sul do país, enquanto foguetes do Hezbollah mataram dois israelenses — uma assimetria que define o tom tenso das negociações.
- Israel recusou inicialmente a oferta libanesa de negociações diretas, considerando o governo de Beirute fraco demais para conter o Hezbollah sem precipitar uma guerra civil.
- A virada veio quando o Irã condicionou conversas em Andamento no Paquistão à cessação das operações israelenses no Líbano, levando Trump a pressionar Netanyahu diretamente por telefone.
- As duas delegações chegam à mesa com objetivos opostos: Israel exige o desarmamento total do Hezbollah e um acordo de paz amplo, enquanto o Líbano pede um cessar-fogo imediato como pré-condição para qualquer avanço.
- O Hezbollah ainda mantém um arsenal considerável e apoio significativo entre os xiitas libaneses, tornando o desarmamento um desafio monumental para um Estado já fragilizado ao extremo.
Representantes israelenses e libaneses se preparam para encontros diretos em Washington na próxima semana — os mais significativos entre os dois países em décadas. O pano de fundo é sombrio: semanas de violência crescente entre Israel e Hezbollah, com quase 1.900 mortos no Líbano desde março, milhares de deslocados no sul do país e dois israelenses mortos por foguetes. O conflito atual tem raízes em um acordo de 2024 pelo qual o governo libanês se comprometeu a desarmar o Hezbollah e assumir controle sobre suas armas — um compromisso que Israel sempre considerou letra morta.
O caminho até estas negociações foi tortuoso. Semanas atrás, o presidente libanês Joseph Aoun fez uma oferta incomum: negociações diretas com Israel e até a possibilidade de normalização de relações. Israel recusou, temendo que Beirute fosse longe demais para agir contra o Hezbollah sem desencadear uma guerra civil. A equação mudou quando Estados Unidos e Irã firmaram seu próprio cessar-fogo e Teerã deixou claro que não avançaria em conversas no Paquistão enquanto Israel continuasse suas operações no Líbano. Trump ligou para Netanyahu, pressionou por recuo, e o primeiro-ministro anunciou a abertura às negociações.
As delegações iniciais serão lideradas pelos embaixadores de cada país em Washington. Netanyahu nomeou Ron Dermer, seu confidente próximo, para liderar uma equipe negociadora mais ampla em rodadas futuras; o Líbano indicou Simon Karam para papel semelhante. Mas os objetivos das partes permanecem distantes: Israel não pretende suspender operações militares e exige o desarmamento completo do Hezbollah e um acordo de paz abrangente. O Líbano, por sua vez, trata o cessar-fogo como pré-condição inegociável para qualquer conversa mais profunda.
A complexidade interna libanesa torna tudo ainda mais delicado. Em março, o governo proibiu formalmente o Hezbollah de conduzir operações militares — um passo sem precedentes. Mas o grupo ainda detém arsenal expressivo e apoio robusto entre os xiitas do país, e o Estado libanês atravessa um de seus momentos mais frágeis desde a guerra civil de 1975 a 1990. Israel e Líbano não mantêm relações diplomáticas formais e tecnicamente ainda estão em estado de guerra desde 1948. O que começa em Washington na próxima semana é, portanto, algo raro e arriscado: uma tentativa direta de conversar sobre paz entre dois países que nunca fizeram as pazes.
Israeli and Lebanese officials are heading to Washington next week for what may be the most consequential direct talks between the two countries in decades. The meeting comes as weeks of escalating violence between Israel and Hezbollah threaten to unravel a fragile ceasefire agreement, and as the Trump administration scrambles to contain a conflict that could derail broader negotiations with Iran.
The fighting began in early March when Hezbollah fired missiles into Israel, three days after the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran. Israel responded with a sustained air campaign against Lebanon, followed by a ground invasion into the country's south. The toll has been severe: at least 1,888 people have been killed in Israeli airstrikes, while thousands of Lebanese civilians have fled villages that Israel says are Hezbollah strongholds. Two Israelis have died from Hezbollah rocket fire. The current conflict is rooted in a 2024 agreement in which the Lebanese government pledged to disarm Hezbollah and establish state control over the group's weapons. Israel has long maintained that effort failed, and has continued striking what it describes as Hezbollah weapons depots and fighters even after the accord was signed.
The path to these talks has been unusual. A week into the fighting, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun made an extraordinary offer: direct negotiations with Israel, and even the possibility of normalizing relations between the two countries. Israel rejected it at the time, viewing the Lebanese government as too weak to act against Hezbollah without risking civil war. But the calculus shifted when the United States and Iran reached their own ceasefire agreement on Tuesday. Iran made clear that it would not proceed with planned talks in Pakistan unless Israel stopped its operations in Lebanon. On Thursday, Trump called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and pressed him to scale back the attacks. Netanyahu announced later that day that Israel would enter negotiations with Lebanon.
The initial talks will be led by Israel's ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, and Lebanon's ambassador, Nada Hamadeh Moawad. Netanyahu has appointed Ron Dermer, a former strategic affairs minister and close confidant, to lead any broader negotiating team, though Dermer is not expected to attend next week's session. Lebanon has similarly tapped Simon Karam, a former ambassador to Washington, to head its delegation in wider talks, though he too will not be present for the opening round.
The two sides are entering these talks with starkly different objectives. Netanyahu has stated that Israel will not halt its military operations against Hezbollah. Instead, he says the negotiations aim to achieve two things: the complete disarmament of Hezbollah and a comprehensive peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Israeli officials have suggested the country might reduce attacks before talks begin, and some have indicated Israel will press Lebanon to remove Hezbollah ministers from its government. But Israel has not committed to scaling back its ground operations or withdrawing from positions it has established in southern Lebanon, where it is attempting to create what it calls a buffer zone against Hezbollah.
Lebanon's position is more modest but also more urgent. A senior Lebanese official said the country views a ceasefire as a precondition for any broader negotiations. Lebanon wants the talks to focus on establishing a halt to the fighting, with the exact date of the meeting still to be confirmed. The Lebanese government's willingness to negotiate reflects a dramatic shift in domestic politics. In March, the government formally banned Hezbollah from conducting military operations, marking an unprecedented level of internal pressure against the armed group. Yet the reality on the ground is far more complicated. Hezbollah still commands a substantial arsenal and retains significant support among Lebanon's Shiite Muslim population. Disarming the group presents an enormous challenge for a Lebanese state already fragile enough that it is experiencing one of its most precarious moments since the civil war of 1975 to 1990.
Israel and Lebanon have no formal diplomatic relations and technically remain in a state of war dating back to Israel's founding in 1948. The history between them is marked by repeated Israeli military incursions, including an 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon from 1982 to 2000 that began as an operation against Palestinian groups. More recently, the two countries negotiated a maritime boundary agreement in 2022 with American mediation. In December 2025, they held indirect talks through American intermediaries in the southern Lebanese town of Naqoura, attempting to solidify the 2024 agreement that had ended the previous round of Israel-Hezbollah fighting. Now, with the stakes higher and the violence more intense, they are attempting something far more ambitious: a direct conversation about peace.
Citações Notáveis
Israel will not halt its military operations against Hezbollah, but negotiations aim to achieve disarmament and a comprehensive peace agreement— Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Lebanon views a ceasefire as a precondition for any broader negotiations— Senior Lebanese official
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why did Netanyahu change his mind so quickly? He rejected Lebanon's offer just days before agreeing to talks.
The Iran ceasefire shifted everything. Once the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement, Iran made it clear that further negotiations depended on Israel stopping operations in Lebanon. Trump then called Netanyahu directly. When the White House applies that kind of pressure, the calculation changes.
But Netanyahu says Israel won't stop attacking Hezbollah. So what exactly is being negotiated?
That's the tension at the heart of this. Netanyahu wants to use the talks to push for Hezbollah's disarmament and a broader peace agreement. But Lebanon is saying: first a ceasefire, then we can talk about anything else. They're not even on the same page about what the conversation is supposed to accomplish.
Is there any chance this actually works?
Lebanon's government has already taken steps against Hezbollah that would have been unthinkable a year ago. But Hezbollah still has the weapons, still has the support, and still has the will to fight. A Lebanese state that can't control its own armed groups can't deliver what Israel is demanding. That's the fundamental problem.
What happens if these talks fail?
The ceasefire with Iran falls apart. The fighting in Lebanon intensifies. And the region slides deeper into conflict. That's why Trump is so invested in making this work. It's not really about Israel and Lebanon anymore—it's about whether the broader regional arrangement holds.
How much time do they actually have?
The Pakistan talks with Iran are this weekend. So there's a very narrow window. If Israel and Lebanon can't show some progress by then, Iran will likely walk away from the ceasefire agreement entirely.