We're not there yet, but we're very close
Three months into a conflict neither side has fully committed to ending, the United States and Iran have arrived at a tentative framework — a sixty-day ceasefire extension and the opening of nuclear talks — that exists on paper but not yet in practice. The agreement awaits President Trump's approval and Iran's formal acceptance, suspended in the uncertain space between diplomacy and continued military exchange. History has seen this moment before: the architecture of peace assembled while the guns have not yet gone quiet, the fate of millions resting on a signature not yet given.
- A memorandum of understanding sits unsigned on the table — close enough to touch, far enough to collapse — as both Washington and Tehran wait for the other to fully commit.
- The ceasefire fractures in real time: Iranian drones over the Strait of Hormuz, American defensive strikes on Iranian military sites, Kuwaiti air defenses intercepting ballistic missiles — the cycle of retaliation spinning even as diplomats negotiate.
- Trump's demand that no nation — not Iran, not even Oman — control the Strait of Hormuz has injected a volatile new condition into talks, threatening a regional arrangement Tehran had been quietly building.
- Iran's economy is described as in 'free fall': oil infrastructure shuttered, troops unpaid, a shadow fleet sanctioned — a country, in Trump's words, 'negotiating on fumes.'
- Behind the geopolitical maneuvering, the human toll accumulates — forty-three political prisoners executed in Iran, hundreds of thousands displaced from southern Lebanon, and a war that has not paused long enough to be called peace.
Three months into a war neither side seems ready to finish, the United States and Iran are circling something that might be called a deal. A tentative memorandum of understanding would extend their ceasefire by sixty days and reopen negotiations on Iran's nuclear program — the issue at the heart of the conflict. But the agreement is not yet real. It awaits President Trump's signature and Iran's formal response. Vice President JD Vance put it plainly: "We're not there yet, but we're very close."
Pakistan has served as the crucial diplomatic bridge, with Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar set to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington to review the latest developments. The framework, if accepted, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart direct nuclear talks. But Trump's red lines remain firm: Iran must surrender its enriched uranium and abandon its nuclear program entirely. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent kept returning to the same refrain — everything depends on what the president decides.
Meanwhile, the ceasefire is fraying. Iranian forces launched attack drones toward the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday; all were intercepted. The U.S. conducted defensive strikes on Iranian military targets. Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced retaliatory fire. Kuwait intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile. The ceasefire technically holds, but only in the narrowest sense.
Trump has added a new complication by declaring that no nation — not Iran, not Oman — will control the Strait of Hormuz. He warned Oman in characteristically direct terms. The U.S. has also sanctioned Iran's newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority and warned companies against paying Tehran's transit fees. Economic pressure on Iran is relentless: oil infrastructure is shuttered, currency is collapsing, troops are going unpaid.
Iran's president insists his country does not seek nuclear weapons but will not negotiate under humiliation. Senior Iranian officials speak of stability contingent on American withdrawal — the posture of a country trying to preserve dignity while its economy erodes.
The human cost continues to mount. At least forty-three political prisoners have been executed in Iran since the year began — a 139 percent increase — with the interval between arrest and death growing shorter. In southern Lebanon, hundreds of thousands have fled as Israel expanded operations against Hezbollah, declaring vast areas south of the Zahrani River as combat zones. An Israeli soldier was killed by a Hezbollah drone Thursday, and nearly seven hundred projectiles were fired in the south on Wednesday alone.
The negotiators have done their work. The framework exists. What happens next depends entirely on whether President Trump decides to sign.
Three months into a war that neither side seems entirely ready to finish, the United States and Iran are circling something that might be called a deal. A tentative agreement sits on the table—a memorandum of understanding that would extend their ceasefire by sixty days and crack open negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. But it is not yet a deal. It is waiting for President Trump's signature, and waiting for Iran to formally respond to the latest version. Vice President JD Vance put it plainly on Thursday: "We're not there yet, but we're very close."
The negotiators have been at this for weeks, working through intermediaries. Pakistan has been the crucial bridge, with Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar scheduled to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington on Friday to review the latest developments. The framework, if both sides accept it, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart direct talks on the nuclear question—the thing that started this war in the first place. But major hurdles remain. Trump said this week that Iran "hasn't gotten there yet" on his demands. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, asked repeatedly whether a deal exists, kept circling back to the same point: "Everything depends on what the president wants to do." Trump has made clear he will not accept what he considers a bad agreement. Iran must hand over enriched uranium. Iran cannot have a nuclear program. Those are the red lines.
Meanwhile, the ceasefire is fraying. On Thursday morning, Iranian forces launched five one-way attack drones toward the Strait of Hormuz, all of which were intercepted by U.S. forces. The Americans also prevented a sixth drone from launching at a ground control site in Bandar Abbas. In response, the U.S. carried out what it called defensive strikes on Iranian military targets. Iran's Revolutionary Guard then announced retaliatory fire on an American base, claiming it had targeted the source of the aggression. Kuwait's air defenses intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile. There were no reports of American facilities being hit, but the cycle was complete: strike, retaliation, counter-retaliation. The ceasefire, technically still in effect, is holding only in the narrowest sense.
Trump has also introduced a new complication into the talks. He has demanded that no one control the Strait of Hormuz—not Iran, not Oman, not anyone. When asked if he would allow Iran and Oman to jointly manage the strait, a proposal Tehran has been working on, Trump was blunt: "Nobody's going to control it. We're going to watch over it." He added, with characteristic directness, that Oman would "behave just like everybody else or we'll have to blow them up." Treasury Secretary Bessent later clarified that the president was simply emphasizing freedom of navigation. But the message was unmistakable. The U.S. has also sanctioned Iran's newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the agency Tehran set up to collect fees from ships passing through the waterway, and has warned companies against paying those fees.
The economic pressure on Iran is relentless. The Trump administration has tightened sanctions on firms that help Iran's military-owned petroleum company export oil to China and other markets. Eight vessels have been sanctioned, along with several Hong Kong-based companies accused of facilitating the shadow fleet that moves Iranian crude. Bessent called Iran's economy and currency in "free fall." Troops are not getting paid. Police are not reporting for work. The island of Kharg, crucial to Iran's oil infrastructure, is shut down. Iran is, in Trump's phrase, "negotiating on fumes."
Yet Iran's negotiators say they want a deal. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reasserted that his country does not seek nuclear weapons, but he also made clear that Iran will not negotiate under duress. "We do not engage in diplomacy with humiliation," he told state media. A senior Iranian official visiting Russia said the Middle East would be "the most stable and best region in the world" if the United States left. These are the postures of a country trying to save face while its economy collapses and its military capacity erodes.
The human cost of the war continues to mount. At least forty-three political prisoners have been executed in Iran since the beginning of 2026, according to the Hengaw Organization for Human Rights—a 139 percent increase over last year. Most were accused of political crimes or espionage. The pace of executions has accelerated; the interval between arrest, sentencing, and death has shortened. In southern Lebanon, where Israel has expanded its operations against Hezbollah, hundreds of thousands have been forced to flee their homes. The Israeli military declared all areas south of the Zahrani River—roughly twenty-five miles from the border—as combat zones and told residents to evacuate. On Thursday, an Israeli soldier was killed by a Hezbollah drone, bringing the Israeli death toll to twenty-four since hostilities began on March 2. The U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon reported that nearly seven hundred projectiles were fired in the south on Wednesday alone, the highest total since mid-April.
What happens next depends on Trump. The negotiators have done their work. The framework exists. Iran has signaled willingness to talk. But the president has not yet decided whether to sign. Vance said it remains "still TBD" whether Trump will endorse the agreement. The ceasefire, fragile as it is, could hold long enough for a deal to materialize. Or the cycle of strikes and retaliation could accelerate, pulling the two countries back into open war. For now, both sides are waiting to see what the president decides.
Citações Notáveis
We're not there yet, but we're very close, and we're going to keep on working at it.— Vice President JD Vance, on U.S.-Iran negotiations
We do not engage in diplomacy with humiliation.— Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Trump's approval matter so much if the negotiators have already reached a tentative agreement?
Because Trump has the final say on whether America accepts the terms. The negotiators can build a framework, but if the president thinks it's weak or doesn't serve his interests, he can reject it. He's made clear he won't accept what he sees as a bad deal.
What are his actual red lines with Iran?
Iran must hand over enriched uranium and cannot have a nuclear program. Those are non-negotiable for him. Everything else—the timing, the verification mechanisms, the sanctions relief—is negotiable, but those two things are fixed.
The ceasefire keeps breaking. How much longer can it hold?
It's holding technically, but barely. Both sides are testing each other constantly. Iran launches drones, the U.S. responds with strikes it calls defensive. Iran retaliates. Each side claims the other violated the truce first. It's a ceasefire in name only at this point.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important to all of this?
It's the chokepoint for global oil. About a third of the world's seaborne oil passes through it. If Iran controls it, they can tax shipping, they can leverage that against the U.S. Trump won't allow it. He's made that clear, even threatening Oman if they try to work with Iran on joint management.
What does Iran actually want from a deal?
Relief from sanctions, mainly. Their economy is collapsing. They want to be able to sell oil again, to get their currency stable, to pay their troops. They also want some dignity—they don't want to look like they surrendered. That's why Pezeshkian keeps saying Iran won't negotiate "with humiliation."
Is there any chance this falls apart completely?
Yes. If Trump rejects the agreement, or if one more major incident happens—a ship sunk, a base actually hit—the ceasefire could snap. The military on both sides is still positioned for war. It wouldn't take much to restart it.