If demand for those assets weakened, the company warned, its business would suffer.
Na quarta-feira, a Coinbase estreou na Nasdaq a 340 dólares por ação, alcançando uma valorização de 90 mil milhões de dólares — aquém dos 100 mil milhões projetados pelos analistas. A diferença não passou despercebida: o Bitcoin recuou imediatamente de 65 mil para 63 mil dólares, revelando a simbiose profunda entre o destino desta empresa e o humor volátil dos mercados cripto. A estreia da Coinbase convida-nos a refletir sobre o que significa construir um negócio cujo alicerce é, por natureza, a incerteza.
- A Coinbase chegou ao mercado com números impressionantes — receitas de 1,8 mil milhões de dólares no primeiro trimestre e lucros projetados 2.300% acima do ano anterior —, mas a avaliação ficou 10% abaixo do esperado, criando uma primeira impressão de deceção.
- A queda imediata do Bitcoin de 65 mil para 63 mil dólares mostrou que o mercado cripto e as ações da Coinbase respiram o mesmo ar, amplificando a tensão em torno da estreia.
- A escolha de uma oferta pública direta (DPO) em vez de um IPO tradicional eliminou o período de bloqueio para os acionistas existentes, abrindo a porta a vendas imediatas e potenciando uma volatilidade acrescida nas semanas seguintes.
- Com 90% das receitas dependentes do trading de Bitcoin e Ether, a empresa admitiu no seu prospeto que qualquer arrefecimento do interesse nestes ativos ameaça diretamente os seus resultados financeiros.
A Coinbase abriu as portas à Nasdaq na quarta-feira com uma avaliação de 90 mil milhões de dólares, fixando o preço de referência em 340 dólares por ação. O valor ficou abaixo dos 100 mil milhões que os analistas da Bloomberg antecipavam, e o mercado respondeu de imediato: o Bitcoin, que se aproximava dos 65 mil dólares antes da estreia, recuou para 63 mil dólares. A ligação entre os dois não era coincidência — era estrutural.
A própria empresa reconheceu no seu prospeto que a esmagadora maioria das suas receitas provém do trading de Bitcoin e Ether. Se o entusiasmo por estes ativos arrefecer sem ser compensado por outros criptoativos, o negócio ressente-se. Os investidores que apostaram na Coinbase estavam, na prática, a apostar também no futuro das criptomoedas.
A empresa optou por uma oferta pública direta em vez do tradicional IPO, o que significou que os acionistas originais puderam vender as suas posições logo no primeiro dia de negociação, sem qualquer período de bloqueio — um fator que poderá intensificar a volatilidade nos próximos tempos.
Apesar das dúvidas levantadas pela estreia, os números de crescimento da Coinbase eram difíceis de ignorar. A plataforma chegou a março com 56 milhões de utilizadores registados, contra 43 milhões no final de 2020, e as receitas do primeiro trimestre de 2021 multiplicaram-se por nove face ao mesmo período do ano anterior. O lucro projetado para o trimestre apontava para um crescimento de cerca de 2.300%. A Coinbase suportava já o trading de cerca de 90 criptomoedas e havia lançado, em parceria com a Visa, um cartão que permite aos utilizadores gastar os seus ativos digitais em qualquer comerciante. O potencial era evidente — mas a dependência do humor do mercado cripto permanecia a sombra mais longa sobre o seu futuro.
Coinbase opened for trading on the Nasdaq on Wednesday at $340 per share, giving the cryptocurrency exchange a market valuation of $90 billion. The figure fell short of the $100 billion valuation that Bloomberg analysts had been projecting in the weeks leading up to the debut, and the shortfall rippled immediately through the broader crypto market. Bitcoin, which had been climbing toward $65,000 per unit in the hours before the announcement, retreated to $63,000 as traders absorbed the news. The connection was not accidental. Analysts had long predicted that Coinbase's stock performance and bitcoin's price movements would move in tandem, and the company itself had flagged the relationship in its prospectus, noting that the bulk of its revenue flowed directly from trading activity in bitcoin and ether. If demand for those assets weakened and was not offset by interest in other cryptocurrencies, the company warned, its business, operating results, and financial condition would suffer.
Coinbase's path to the public markets differed from the traditional initial public offering. Instead, the company conducted what is known as a direct public offering, or DPO, a structure that meant existing shareholders faced no lockup period restricting when they could sell their shares. They were free to begin unloading stock on the first day of trading, a feature that could amplify price swings in the weeks ahead.
The company had grown substantially in the months before going public. By March, Coinbase reported 56 million registered users, up from 43 million at the end of 2020. Revenue for the first quarter of 2021 reached $1.8 billion, nine times the $190.6 million the company had generated in the same period a year earlier. The profit picture was even more striking. Coinbase projected net income between $730 million and $800 million for the quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of roughly 2,300 percent when calculated from the midpoint of that range.
The platform supports trading in roughly 90 different cryptocurrencies, and the company had already begun expanding its services beyond simple buying and selling. In 2019, Coinbase had launched the Coinbase Card in partnership with Visa, initially offering it to customers in the United Kingdom and several European countries. The card allowed users to spend their cryptocurrency holdings at any merchant accepting Visa, converting digital assets into purchases in the physical world.
Yet the company's dependence on the fortunes of bitcoin and ether remained the defining feature of its business model. The prospectus made this explicit, acknowledging that a large portion of revenue came from trading these two assets. That structural reality meant Coinbase's investors would be betting not just on the company's ability to execute as a business, but on the continued appetite for cryptocurrencies themselves. The market's initial reaction suggested some caution about that bet.
Citações Notáveis
If demand for bitcoin or ether weakens and is not offset by demand for other cryptocurrencies, our business, operating results, and financial condition could be materially affected.— Coinbase prospectus
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why did Coinbase miss its valuation target by $10 billion? Was there less demand than expected?
The source doesn't say demand was weak—it's more that the market priced it conservatively. The company still opened at $340 a share and began trading immediately. The real story is what happened next: Bitcoin dropped almost $2,000 in hours.
So the market was signaling something about Coinbase's actual worth?
Or about the relationship between Coinbase and Bitcoin itself. The company had to disclose in its prospectus that most of its revenue comes from Bitcoin and Ether trading. If those assets lose value, Coinbase loses money. The market was pricing in that risk.
The direct listing structure—why does that matter?
In a traditional IPO, early shareholders are locked up for months. They can't sell immediately. With a direct listing, they can sell on day one. That means potential volatility, more shares hitting the market right away, less artificial scarcity.
And the growth numbers—56 million users, revenue up nine times—those seem strong.
They are. The company was clearly capturing demand. But growth and valuation are different things. You can grow fast and still be overvalued. The market was saying: we believe in the growth, but not at $100 billion.
What does this mean for Coinbase going forward?
It's tied to Bitcoin. The company made that clear itself. If crypto stays hot, Coinbase thrives. If it cools, the company feels it immediately. That's the bet investors are making.