The Fed is making trillion-dollar decisions on incomplete information
En los umbrales del otoño, la maquinaria estadística que orienta las decisiones económicas más importantes de Estados Unidos está a punto de enmudecer. Un cierre del gobierno dejaría a la Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales con apenas un empleado activo de más de dos mil, suspendiendo los informes de inflación y empleo justo cuando la Reserva Federal debe decidir sobre las tasas de interés en octubre. Es un momento en que la ausencia de datos no es solo un vacío técnico, sino una interrupción del diálogo colectivo sobre el bienestar económico de una nación.
- La Reserva Federal enfrenta su decisión de tasas de octubre sin los dos indicadores que más necesita: el empleo y la inflación, ambos suspendidos por el cierre gubernamental.
- Con solo uno de 2,055 empleados operando, la BLS no publicará ningún dato programado durante el cierre, dejando a los mercados y al banco central navegando a ciegas.
- La presión es doble: los aranceles de Trump amenazan con avivar la inflación mientras el mercado laboral da señales de debilitamiento, exactamente la tensión que el mandato dual de la Fed debe equilibrar.
- La credibilidad de las estadísticas ya estaba dañada tras el despido abrupto del director de la oficina de estadísticas en julio, cuando Trump rechazó revisiones a la baja en las cifras de empleo.
- Los mercados observan si la Fed cederá a la presión política de recortar tasas o resistirá para contener la inflación, todo ello sin los datos que normalmente fundamentarían esa elección.
La Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales de Estados Unidos prácticamente cerrará sus puertas durante un cierre del gobierno, dejando activo a solo uno de sus 2,055 empleados. Los informes de inflación y empleo que normalmente guían las decisiones de la Reserva Federal simplemente no se publicarán.
El momento es particularmente delicado. La Fed tiene previsto reunirse el 28 y 29 de octubre para decidir si recorta nuevamente las tasas de interés, tras haberlas reducido un cuarto de punto en septiembre. El presidente Jerome Powell ya advirtió en su última conferencia de prensa que los riesgos de inflación apuntan hacia arriba y los del empleo hacia abajo, una tensión que refleja exactamente el doble mandato que el Congreso le impuso al banco central: estabilidad de precios y máximo empleo. Sin datos frescos, la Fed deberá tomar una de sus decisiones más importantes del año apoyándose en cifras antiguas y proyecciones incompletas.
Este vacío informativo llega en un contexto donde la confianza en las estadísticas oficiales ya se encuentra erosionada. En julio, Trump despidió abruptamente al director de la oficina de estadísticas tras revisiones significativas a la baja en las cifras de creación de empleo, un movimiento inusual que sacudió la percepción de independencia de esos datos. A eso se suma el enfrentamiento del presidente con la gobernadora de la Fed Lisa Cook en los tribunales, buscando su remoción anticipada.
Si el cierre ocurre, no solo se pausan las operaciones gubernamentales: se interrumpe la conversación económica en el preciso momento en que más se necesita claridad.
The machinery that measures America's economic pulse is about to go silent. During a government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will cease operations almost entirely, leaving just one of its 2,055 employees at work. This means the inflation and employment reports that guide the Federal Reserve's most consequential decisions will simply not exist.
The timing could hardly be worse. The Fed is scheduled to meet on October 28 and 29 to decide whether to cut interest rates again. In September, it lowered rates by a quarter point for the first time this year. Now it faces a genuinely difficult choice: should it cut rates further to support job creation, or hold steady to prevent inflation from accelerating—particularly the inflation that might result from Trump's tariffs, which the markets haven't fully priced in yet. Fed Chair Jerome Powell put it plainly at his last press conference: inflation risks are pointing upward, employment risks downward. It's a challenging situation.
The Fed operates under what Congress calls a dual mandate. Keep prices stable. Maximize employment. Those are the two things the central bank is supposed to balance. And those are precisely the two economic reports it won't have in its hands when it convenes in late October. The Labor Department's contingency plan is explicit: the BLS will suspend all operations, and any data scheduled for release during the shutdown simply will not be published.
This data blackout arrives at a moment when the credibility of these numbers is already fragile. In late July, Trump abruptly fired the head of the statistics office, unhappy with significant downward revisions to job creation figures. It was an unusual move that rattled confidence in what had long been considered reliable government data. The president has also been battling a Federal Reserve governor, Lisa Cook, at the Supreme Court, seeking to remove her early based on allegations of mortgage fraud related to how she classified properties when securing financing—though no formal criminal charges have been filed.
Without fresh employment and inflation data, the Fed will be making one of its most important decisions of the year in a fog. It will have to rely on older numbers, on forecasts, on incomplete signals. Meanwhile, the markets will be watching to see whether the central bank cuts rates as Trump has pressured it to do, or whether it resists and holds the line on price stability. The shutdown, if it happens, doesn't just pause government operations. It pauses the economic conversation itself at a moment when that conversation matters most.
Citas Notables
In the short term, inflation risks point upward and employment risks point downward—it's a challenging situation— Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does it matter so much that these specific reports go dark during a shutdown? Aren't there other ways to measure the economy?
The Fed doesn't just want any data—it needs the official employment and inflation numbers because those are what Congress told it to use. They're the benchmark. Without them, the Fed is making trillion-dollar decisions on incomplete information.
But couldn't the Fed just wait until the shutdown ends to make its decision?
The October meeting is already scheduled. If the shutdown stretches past that date, the Fed has to choose: decide without the data, or postpone. Either way, it's a problem.
Is there a sense that Trump wants the data suppressed, or is this just bad timing?
The shutdown itself isn't his doing directly—Congress controls the budget. But he did fire the statistics chief in July over job numbers he didn't like. So there's a credibility question hanging over all of this.
What happens to the markets if the Fed has to guess?
Uncertainty. The markets hate uncertainty more than they hate bad news. You get volatility, you get people second-guessing what the Fed will do, you get the dollar moving. It's not chaos, but it's friction at a moment when the economy is already fragile.
And the tariffs—those are the real wild card here?
Exactly. Nobody knows yet how much inflation Trump's tariffs will actually create. The inflation data would tell us. Without it, the Fed is flying blind on the one thing it's most worried about.