All vessels are waiting for Iran's permission to pass
Sixty-nine days into a war neither side has formally declared over, American warships and Iranian forces exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz while diplomats in multiple capitals searched for the language of peace. The United States struck Iranian ports in retaliation for a sustained missile and drone assault, yet President Trump called the exchange a 'love tap' and insisted a deal was near. Iran, meanwhile, moved to institutionalize its grip on the world's most consequential shipping lane, trapping some 1,500 vessels and 20,000 souls in a gulf that has become both a battlefield and a bargaining chip. History has rarely seen war and negotiation conducted so simultaneously, or so precariously.
- Three U.S. Navy destroyers survived a fierce, hours-long barrage of Iranian missiles, drones, and fast-attack boats in the Strait of Hormuz — the most intense assault of the conflict so far.
- Iran formalized its stranglehold on global shipping by creating a new authority to approve all vessel transits and collect tolls, leaving roughly 20,000 merchant crew members stranded with no passage in sight since May 4.
- Oil markets are trembling near $100 a barrel, American gasoline has hit its highest price in nearly four years, and Maersk warns that shipping costs have nearly doubled — with no clear end in sight.
- Trump oscillates between deal-making optimism and apocalyptic threats, promising 'more violent' strikes if Iran refuses while simultaneously claiming a breakthrough is imminent.
- Diplomatic signals from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and France suggest negotiations are intensifying, but Iran's response to the latest U.S. proposal remains officially 'under review.'
- The wider region is fraying: an Israeli strike killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, Lebanon casualties mounted, and new U.S. sanctions targeted Iraqi firms accused of helping Iran evade economic pressure.
On Thursday morning, three American destroyers navigating the Strait of Hormuz came under a sustained barrage of Iranian missiles, drones, and fast-attack boats — a fiercer assault than anything seen in the conflict's first weeks. The ships held their ground, suffered no damage, and the U.S. responded with strikes on the Iranian ports of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm. President Trump dismissed the exchange as a 'love tap' and insisted the ceasefire remained intact, telling reporters that a peace deal was very close. 'It'll happen,' he said, declining to name any deadline.
Even as the guns fell quiet, Iran was tightening its grip on the waterway in a different way. The regime announced a new Persian Gulf Strait Authority empowered to approve all vessel transits and collect passage tolls — a bureaucratic move with enormous strategic weight. Lloyd's List reported the strait had been effectively closed since May 4, with around 1,500 ships and 20,000 crew members stranded inside the Persian Gulf, waiting on permission that had not come. Iranian state television showed empty waters and declared that every vessel was awaiting IRGC Navy approval.
The economic consequences were spreading fast. Brent crude hovered near $100 a barrel, American gasoline averaged $4.54 a gallon — the highest since 2022 — and the CEO of Maersk warned that the war had nearly doubled his company's fuel costs. A Republican congressman on the House Armed Services Committee acknowledged the Pentagon had yet to produce a firm accounting of what the conflict was costing. Trump's advisers were said to be anxious about prices climbing further.
Diplomacy was moving, though its pace was hard to read. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia both predicted a breakthrough was near. France's Macron called Iranian President Pezeshkian directly, urging both sides to lift strait restrictions without conditions. But Tehran's foreign ministry said the latest American proposal was still under review. Trump, for his part, warned that rejection would bring 'higher level' and 'more violent' strikes, while also describing Iranian drones falling into the sea 'like a butterfly dropping to its grave.'
Elsewhere, the conflict's edges were fraying. An Israeli airstrike killed a senior Hezbollah commander in central Beirut, and at least eleven others died in strikes across Lebanon — straining a ceasefire the Trump administration had brokered weeks earlier. New U.S. Treasury sanctions targeted Iraqi officials and firms accused of helping Iran disguise its crude oil as Iraqi exports. In Tehran, President Pezeshkian told business leaders the country faced real economic difficulties and urged restraint. The new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei — who U.S. officials believe was severely wounded in the opening strikes that killed his father — had still not appeared publicly, communicating only through written statements.
The White House had waived the Jones Act to ease domestic energy flows, and roughly nine million barrels of American oil were moving more freely to U.S. ports. But the deeper problem held: a critical waterway was closed, thousands of people were waiting at sea, and the world's oil markets remained unsettled. Negotiators in Washington, Tehran, and Islamabad were working to find an exit — while the strait itself, and everything passing through it, hung in the balance.
Three American destroyers threading through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning faced a wall of Iranian fire—missiles, drones, fast-attack boats swarming close enough that the U.S. Navy had to open fire to keep them at bay. For several hours, the warships and their supporting aircraft mounted a layered defense. When the smoke cleared, none of the vessels had been struck. The U.S. responded by targeting two Iranian ports that sit astride the strait: Bandar Abbas and Qeshm. The destroyers USS Truxtun, USS Mason, and USS Rafael Peralta had endured what American officials described as a fiercer and more sustained assault than attacks just days earlier.
This was the second major confrontation in a war that began on February 28, now 69 days old. But even as the military exchange unfolded, President Trump was telling anyone who would listen that a deal was coming. "They want to make a deal," he said Wednesday. "We've had very good talks over the last 24 hours. And it's very possible that we'll make a deal." He called the strikes on the Iranian ports "just a love tap" and insisted the ceasefire remained in effect. When asked if there was a deadline for negotiations, he shrugged: "Never a deadline. It'll happen. It'll happen. But never a deadline."
Meanwhile, Iran was making a different kind of move. While its foreign ministry said it was reviewing the latest American proposal, the regime announced the creation of a new Persian Gulf Strait Authority—an agency tasked with approving all vessel transits through the Hormuz and collecting tolls for passage. The shipping intelligence firm Lloyd's List reported Thursday that as of that moment, the strait was closed. No ships had transited since May 4. Around 1,500 vessels and roughly 20,000 crew members were trapped in the Persian Gulf, waiting for permission that might never come. Iranian state television showed empty waters and declared that "all vessels are waiting for Iran's permission and the approval of the IRGC Navy to pass through the Strait of Hormuz." The regime had effectively weaponized one of the world's most critical shipping lanes, controlling a fifth of global crude oil supply.
The economic tremors were already visible. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, hovered around $100 a barrel—down from earlier in the week but still far above the roughly $70 it commanded before the war. Gasoline prices in the United States had climbed to an average of $4.54 a gallon, the highest since July 2022, a jump of 52 cents per gallon since late February. The CEO of Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, told the BBC that the war had nearly doubled his company's fuel bill—costs that would have to be passed on to customers. A Republican congressman on the House Armed Services Committee admitted the Pentagon still hadn't produced a hard figure for what the war was costing. Advisers close to Trump were reportedly worried about fuel prices spiking further if the conflict dragged on.
Trump's rhetoric oscillated between confidence and threat. He said the war was going "unbelievably well" and compared it favorably to the operation in Venezuela. But he also warned Iran that if it rejected the American offer, he would order "higher level" and "more violent" strikes. "If there's no ceasefire, you're not going to have to know. You're just going to look at one big glow coming out of Iran," he said. He described the Iranian drones falling from the sky as dropping "ever so beautifully down to the Ocean, very much like a butterfly dropping to its grave." He called Iran's leaders "lunatics" and said they would use a nuclear weapon without hesitation if given the chance.
The diplomatic machinery was grinding forward, though its actual progress remained opaque. Pakistan's foreign ministry said it expected an agreement "sooner rather than later." Saudi Arabia's state television reported that "intensive negotiations" were underway and predicted a breakthrough "in the coming hours." French President Emmanuel Macron called Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and urged both sides to lift their restrictions on the strait without conditions. But Iran's response to the latest U.S. proposal was still "under review," according to the foreign ministry.
Behind the scenes, other pressures were mounting. The U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions on an Iraqi oil official and several Iraqi firms accused of helping Iran evade sanctions by diverting Iraqi oil and falsifying documents so Iranian crude could be sold as Iraqi. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Iranian regime was "pillaging resources that rightfully belong to the Iraqi people." In Lebanon, an Israeli airstrike killed Ahmed Ghaleb Balout, a senior Hezbollah commander, in the heart of Beirut. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that "no terrorist has immunity" and said Israel had now eliminated more than 200 Hezbollah fighters. At least 11 other people were killed in Israeli strikes across southern and eastern Lebanon on Wednesday. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by the Trump administration weeks earlier, remained ostensibly in effect but was fraying daily.
In Tehran, President Pezeshkian acknowledged to business leaders that the country was facing "difficulties"—inflation, high prices, economic pressure from the war. He urged them to manage consumption and help keep the country afloat. The regime claimed he had met recently with the new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, for two and a half hours in an atmosphere of "closeness and trust." But Khamenei had not been seen or heard from directly since being named to replace his father, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening strikes on February 28. U.S. officials said the younger Khamenei had been severely wounded, possibly incapacitated, in that same airstrike. Only written statements attributed to him had been released.
The White House insisted it had a plan to manage the disruptions. It had temporarily waived the Jones Act to let energy flow more freely to U.S. ports, enabling around 9 million barrels of American oil to reach domestic destinations. But the fundamental problem remained: a vital waterway was closed, thousands of people were trapped, and the world's oil markets were in flux. Trump said the war would be over quickly. Iran said it controlled the strait. And somewhere in between, in rooms in Washington and Tehran and Islamabad, negotiators were trying to find a way to untangle a knot that seemed to tighten with each passing day.
Notable Quotes
They want to make a deal. We've had very good talks over the last 24 hours. And it's very possible that we'll make a deal.— President Trump
If there's no ceasefire, you're not going to have to know. You're just going to look at one big glow coming out of Iran.— President Trump
The reality is that all countries in the world face protests due to inflation, high prices, and economic pressures. We are in a war situation, and we have been attacked heavily, so it is natural that we face some difficulties.— Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Trump keep calling the strikes a "love tap" when they hit actual ports?
Because he's trying to thread a needle—he needs to show strength to his domestic audience and to Iran, but he also needs to preserve the ceasefire and keep negotiations alive. If he admits the strikes are serious, it looks like the ceasefire is breaking. If he admits it's breaking, the deal gets harder.
But Iran just created an authority to control the strait and collect tolls. That's not a sign they want to negotiate, is it?
It's a sign they're hedging. They're saying: we'll talk about a deal, but in the meantime, we're going to formalize control over something we already have leverage over. It's insurance. If talks fail, they've already established themselves as the gatekeeper.
What about those 20,000 crew members trapped in the gulf? Are they just collateral damage?
They're invisible to the negotiators right now. The shipping companies are passing costs to consumers. The crews are waiting. Nobody's clock is running faster than theirs, but nobody's talking about them either.
Is Trump actually confident a deal is coming, or is he just saying that?
Probably both. He genuinely believes he can negotiate anything. But he's also managing expectations—saying it could happen any day keeps the market from panicking and keeps his base thinking he's winning. The "never a deadline" line is telling. It means he's already prepared to extend this indefinitely.
Why is the Lebanon situation such a problem for the Iran deal?
Because Iran won't agree to end the war with the U.S. unless Hezbollah stops fighting Israel too. But Israel keeps striking Hezbollah, Hezbollah keeps attacking back, and the ceasefire between them is basically theater. So Iran has a legitimate grievance—it can't sign a peace deal that leaves its ally still under fire.
What happens if negotiations actually fail?
Trump said there would be "one big glow coming out of Iran." He means massive strikes. Oil would spike past $100 easily. Gas prices would hit $5 or $6. The global economy would feel it. And the strait would stay closed, maybe for months. That's why everyone—Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, France—is suddenly optimistic. The alternative is too expensive.