Iran will only reap benefits if they exhibit good behavior
In the ancient chokepoint where a fifth of the world's energy flows, the fragile architecture of diplomacy collapsed this week as Iranian missiles struck three commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States answered with strikes on more than eighty Iranian targets. What had been a negotiated pause in hostilities — a memorandum signed in June, a ceasefire held together by mutual interest — now lies in contested ruins, with each side accusing the other of having broken faith first. The world watches oil prices climb and shipping lanes darken, reminded once again that the distance between a signed agreement and a lasting peace can be measured in a single missile's flight.
- Iranian missiles struck three commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, setting a Qatari LNG carrier ablaze and threatening explosion with crew still aboard.
- The U.S. responded within hours, hitting over 80 Iranian targets — air defenses, radar sites, anti-ship missile batteries, and more than 60 Revolutionary Guard boats — in one of the conflict's most sweeping single-day operations.
- The Trump administration revoked Iran's oil sales waiver, severing a revenue lifeline that had been a cornerstone of the June ceasefire deal, while both sides now claim the other has shattered the agreement.
- Brent crude surged 5.5 percent, Gulf states condemned the attacks on their vessels, and Kuwait and Bahrain reported incoming fire — signaling the conflict's spread beyond its two principal actors.
- Negotiations are frozen: Iran's foreign minister refuses to resume talks under threat, and demands Israel halt operations in Lebanon before any final deal — a condition that leaves diplomacy with no clear path forward.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas travels, became a battlefield again on Tuesday when Iranian missiles struck three commercial tankers near Oman's coast. Among them was the Qatari LNG carrier Al-Rekayat, which caught fire in its engine room and faced the risk of explosion. Iranian state television acknowledged the strikes, claiming the vessels had ignored safe-route warnings.
The United States responded with overwhelming force. Central Command launched strikes against more than 80 targets across Iran — air defense systems, radar installations, anti-ship missile sites, and over 60 Revolutionary Guard boats. Explosions were reported on Qeshm Island and the port city of Sirik. The Pentagon said the operation was designed to degrade Iran's capacity to threaten international commerce and to impose costs for attacking civilian-crewed vessels.
The violence shattered a fragile ceasefire. Last month's memorandum of understanding had extended a 60-day pause in hostilities and required Iran to guarantee safe passage through the strait. In response to Tuesday's attacks, the Trump administration revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Iran to sell oil — a significant concession that had been part of the deal. Iran's parliament speaker and deputy foreign minister both accused Washington of committing "major" and "blatant" violations of the agreement, vowing to protect national interests by any means necessary.
Global markets reacted sharply. Brent crude jumped 5.5 percent to just under $76 a barrel, and U.S. Treasury yields rose on fears that sustained energy disruptions could force central banks to tighten policy. Saudi Arabia and Qatar condemned the strikes on their vessels as violations of international law, while Kuwait and Bahrain reported incoming fire of their own. The Gulf Cooperation Council called for a firm international response.
Diplomacy has stalled entirely. Iran's foreign minister said talks will not resume while threats persist, and insisted that no final agreement can be signed until Israel withdraws from Lebanon — a condition that complicates any broader settlement. In the background, the ongoing funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in February, drew hundreds of thousands of mourners calling for vengeance. Both sides now accuse the other of having broken the June agreement first, and the strait that once carried the world's energy in uneasy peace has become a theater of escalating confrontation with no clear exit.
The narrow waterway that carries a fifth of the world's oil and gas became a battlefield again on Tuesday. Three commercial tankers—one Qatari, one Saudi, one flagged to Qatar—were struck by Iranian missiles as they moved through the Strait of Hormuz near Oman's coast. The Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier Al-Rekayat caught fire in its engine room after being hit, and sources told Reuters the vessel faced the risk of explosion. Iranian state television acknowledged the attacks but claimed the ships had ignored warnings about which routes were safe to use.
Within hours, the United States responded with overwhelming force. Central Command announced it had launched what it called "a series of powerful strikes" against Iran, hitting more than 80 targets across the country. The operation targeted air defense systems, radar installations, anti-ship missile sites, and more than 60 small boats operated by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. Explosions were reported on Qeshm Island, the largest island in the Persian Gulf and a frequent target throughout this conflict, as well as in the mainland port city of Sirik. The U.S. military said the strikes were designed to "degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking international commerce" and to "impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians."
The escalation shattered what had been a fragile ceasefire. Last month, the U.S. and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding that extended a 60-day pause in hostilities. The deal included a clause requiring Iran to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels through the strait—a commitment Iran's attack on Tuesday appeared to violate. In response, the Trump administration revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Iran to sell oil and petrochemicals, cutting off a significant revenue stream that had been part of the negotiated agreement. A U.S. official stated that "Iran's actions in the Strait were wholly unacceptable to the United States and will be met with consequences."
Iran's leadership saw the American strikes and the revocation of the oil waiver as violations of their own. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian Parliament speaker and a key negotiator in the June talks, accused the U.S. of "major" breaches of the memorandum. He pointed to both the military strikes and the sanctions action, as well as what he called persistent American threats of future attacks. Iran's foreign ministry went further, with Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi calling the revocation of the oil waiver a "blatant violation" of the deal's terms. The ministry vowed to "take any action it deems necessary to safeguard its national interests and security."
The tanker attacks sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped 5.5 percent on the day, trading just under $76 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. standard, rose more than 5 percent to just over $72. Both remained well below the peaks of over $100 a barrel seen in late March and early April, when fighting between the U.S. and Iran had been more intense, but the spike reflected renewed anxiety about shipping disruptions and inflation. U.S. Treasury yields climbed as investors worried that sustained high oil prices could force central banks to raise interest rates, slowing economic growth.
The attacks also drew swift condemnation from regional allies. Saudi Arabia condemned the strike on its supertanker Wedyan as "an assault on the security and safety of international navigation." Qatar's Foreign Ministry called the hit on the Al-Rekayat "a grave and explicit violation of the provisions of international law." Kuwait and Bahrain reported incoming fire early Wednesday morning—missile and drone attacks whose source neither country specified, though both have faced Iranian weapons during previous escalations. The head of the Gulf Cooperation Council, a bloc of six Persian Gulf states, called for the international community to adopt a "firm and deterrent stance" against Iranian attacks.
Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain frozen. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that his country will not resume talks if threats continue, and will not sign any final agreement until Israel withdraws from Lebanon. The condition reflects Iran's insistence that any ceasefire with the U.S. must include a halt to Israeli operations against the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah in southern Lebanon—a demand that complicates Trump administration efforts to broker a broader regional settlement. Meanwhile, the funeral of Iran's slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in the opening days of the war in February, continued to draw hundreds of thousands of mourners calling for vengeance against the U.S. and Israel.
The cycle of attack and retaliation has now consumed what little remained of the diplomatic opening. Both sides accuse the other of breaking faith with the June agreement. The U.S. says Iran violated the ceasefire by attacking ships. Iran says the U.S. violated it by striking Iranian targets and revoking the oil license. The narrow strait that once carried the world's energy supply in relative peace has become a zone of escalating military confrontation, with each side convinced the other has abandoned the terms of peace.
Citas Notables
Iran's actions in the Strait were wholly unacceptable to the United States and will be met with consequences. Our negotiators continue to work in good faith towards a final deal.— U.S. official statement
There will be no final agreement with the Americans except after the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, and no agreement without the implementation of this withdrawal.— Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did the U.S. strike so many targets—over 80—if the goal was just to respond to three tanker attacks?
The strikes weren't proportional in the traditional sense. They were designed to degrade Iran's military capacity—air defenses, radar, anti-ship missiles, and the Revolutionary Guard boats that actually carry out these attacks. The message was: we're not just punishing you for what you did; we're making it harder for you to do it again.
But doesn't that kind of response make it harder to get back to the negotiating table?
It does. And that's the trap both sides are in. Iran attacked the tankers partly because negotiations had stalled during their Supreme Leader's funeral. The U.S. responded militarily. Now Iran says it won't negotiate until Israel stops striking Hezbollah in Lebanon. The ceasefire agreement is being picked apart from both sides.
What's the actual risk to shipping now? Is the strait going to close?
It's not closed, but it's dangerous. A Qatari gas tanker caught fire after being hit. If that ship had exploded, it could have blocked the waterway and caused an environmental disaster. Even without closure, the risk premium is real—oil prices jumped 5.5 percent in one day. That ripples through inflation and interest rates worldwide.
Why does Iran care so much about Lebanon? That seems like a separate conflict.
Because Hezbollah is Iran's proxy force there. If Israel destroys Hezbollah, Iran loses a major tool of regional influence. Iran's negotiators made it clear: no final deal with the U.S. unless Israel leaves Lebanon. It's leverage, but it's also a genuine red line for Tehran.
Is there any path back from here?
Not immediately. Trump said Monday he'd "finish the job" if no deal is made. Iran's foreign minister said negotiations won't resume if threats continue. Both sides are dug in. The funeral of Khamenei is still happening—mourners are calling for vengeance. The political space for compromise has shrunk to almost nothing.