The U.S. has lost control of its own foreign policy
Three weeks into a war that began just hours after the most promising diplomatic exchange in months, Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi has offered a rare and sobering verdict from the inside: the United States has made its greatest strategic miscalculation. Writing from the vantage of a nation that long served as the quiet bridge between Washington and Tehran, Albusaidi does not merely mourn the collapse of diplomacy — he questions whether American power has become untethered from American judgment, and whether the friends of a superpower bear any responsibility for telling it the truth.
- A war that erupted within hours of substantive US-Iran negotiations has now burned for three weeks, with both sides escalating military operations and no diplomatic exit in sight.
- Oman's top diplomat — once in the room where peace was still possible — has broken with careful language to call the conflict unlawful and the decision-making behind it dangerously unmoored.
- The suspicion that Israel led Washington into an unwinnable ground entanglement is now being voiced openly by a Gulf ally whose own security architecture was built on faith in American restraint.
- Energy markets are disrupted, regional stability is fracturing, and the Gulf states that hosted American bases to deter Iran now find themselves caught inside the consequences of a war they did not choose.
- Albusaidi's urgent appeal to American allies is not a call for condemnation but for honesty — someone must tell the superpower plainly that neither it nor Iran has anything left to gain.
Badr Albusaidi had been in the room when Washington and Tehran were still talking. On February 28th, just after the most substantive round of negotiations in months, American and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes against Iran. Writing in The Economist, Oman's Foreign Minister called it a shock but not a surprise — and delivered a blunt verdict: the Trump administration had made its greatest miscalculation.
Now three weeks into the conflict, Albusaidi's critique cuts deeper than diplomatic convention. He describes the war as unlawful, a word that carries particular weight from a minister whose country has spent decades relying on American security guarantees. Oman, like its Gulf neighbors, purchased American weapons and hosted American bases on a single assumption — that US power would be exercised with restraint. That assumption has been broken.
What troubles him most is not the war itself but what it exposes. The US, he argues, has lost control of its own foreign policy. Israel, he implies, persuaded Washington that victory would come quickly. But achieving Israel's objectives would require American troops on the ground — transforming a strike into an entanglement with no clear end.
The consequences spread outward: disrupted energy supplies, fractured regional stability, and a Gulf prosperity that now feels precarious. Albusaidi's message to American allies is direct — you have a responsibility to speak plainly. Both Iran and the United States have nothing to gain from continued fighting. Each day of escalation makes the diplomatic off-ramp harder to find, and someone must tell the superpower what it may not be telling itself.
Badr Albusaidi, Oman's Foreign Minister, has watched wars unfold from a position few diplomats occupy. He had been in the room when Washington and Tehran were actually talking—when the possibility of avoiding catastrophe seemed real. Then, on February 28th, that possibility evaporated in a matter of hours. Just after the most substantive round of negotiations in months, American and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes against Iran. Albusaidi, writing in The Economist, called it a shock but not a surprise. What followed was his blunt assessment: the Trump administration had made its greatest miscalculation.
The war itself is now three weeks old, and the damage extends far beyond the immediate theater. Albusaidi's critique cuts deeper than typical diplomatic language. He describes the conflict as unlawful, a characterization that carries weight coming from a minister whose nation has spent decades betting on American security guarantees. Oman, like other Gulf states, has purchased American weapons systems and hosted U.S. military bases for a single purpose: to deter Iranian aggression. That arrangement rested on a basic assumption—that American power would be wielded with restraint and strategic clarity. The war has shattered that assumption.
What troubles Albusaidi most is not merely the conflict itself but what it reveals about American decision-making. The U.S., he argues, has lost control of its own foreign policy. The implication is stark: Israel persuaded Washington that victory would come quickly and cleanly. But Albusaidi sees the reality differently. Achieving Israel's objectives, he writes, would require American troops on the ground—a commitment that transforms the entire calculus of the war. This is not a limited strike. This is an entanglement.
The economic and security consequences ripple outward. Global energy supplies have been disrupted. Regional tensions have metastasized. The relative peace and prosperity that Gulf states had cultivated now feels fragile, threatened by a conflict neither Iran nor America stands to win. Albusaidi's message to American allies is direct: you have a responsibility to act. The question he poses is almost plaintive: What can friends of America do to extract the superpower from this unwanted situation?
His answer centers on truth-telling. Both Iran and the United States, he insists, have nothing to gain from continued fighting. Their national interests align on one point: the earliest possible end to hostilities. Yet here they are, locked in a conflict that serves neither party's strategic objectives. The war has escalated for twenty days now, with both sides intensifying military operations. Each day that passes makes the diplomatic off-ramp harder to find. Albusaidi's plea is for American allies to speak plainly about what they see: a superpower caught in a war it did not need to fight, making decisions it cannot control, with consequences it may not be able to manage.
Citações Notáveis
The war in Iran represents the Trump administration's greatest miscalculation, with consequences for global economy and regional security— Badr Albusaidi, Oman's Foreign Minister
Both Iran and America have nothing to gain from continued hostilities; their national interests lie in the earliest possible end to the war— Badr Albusaidi
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Oman's voice matter here? They're not a major power.
Oman is the bridge. They've hosted American bases, bought American weapons, and Albusaidi personally negotiated between Washington and Tehran. When he says the U.S. lost control of its foreign policy, he's not theorizing—he watched it happen in real time.
He calls it an "unlawful war." That's a strong word for a diplomat.
It is. Diplomats usually hedge. But Albusaidi is signaling something to other Gulf states: the security arrangement you've relied on is broken. The U.S. is no longer the rational actor you paid for.
What does he mean by Israel "persuading" America?
He's saying Israel convinced Washington this would be quick and decisive. But Albusaidi sees what's actually required: ground troops, a long commitment, a war without a clear exit. That's not what America signed up for.
And the economic angle—why does that matter?
Energy supplies are disrupted. That affects every nation trading oil. This isn't abstract geopolitics anymore. It's hitting wallets, heating bills, industrial production. That's why he's appealing to American allies—they have skin in the game now.
Is he calling for a ceasefire?
He's calling for both sides to acknowledge they have nothing to win. He's asking American allies to tell Washington the truth: this war serves no one's interests. It's a plea for sanity dressed in diplomatic language.
What happens if allies don't listen?
Then the war deepens. Energy prices spike further. Regional instability spreads. And the U.S. finds itself more entangled, not less. Albusaidi is warning that the window to reverse course is closing.