The war his administration chose to enter is making energy more expensive.
Since the United States joined Israel in striking Iran on February 28, the ancient chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz has reasserted its power over modern life, sending the national average price of gasoline to $3.58 a gallon — the highest in nearly two years. What begins as a geopolitical decision made in the language of strategy and security arrives, within days, in the language of dollars and gallons at filling stations across the country. The gap between war as policy and war as lived experience is closing rapidly, and the pump is where millions of Americans are first feeling it.
- The US-Israel military campaign against Iran has directly severed a critical artery of global oil supply, with fresh ship strikes in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday sending wholesale gasoline prices surging by double digits in a single trading session.
- Washington state drivers are already paying $4.63 per gallon, a figure that captures both the global shock and the region's structural cost disadvantages — a preview of where national prices may be heading.
- A simultaneous transition to costlier summer-grade gasoline is compounding the supply disruption, meaning relief is unlikely even if the geopolitical situation stabilizes quickly.
- The International Energy Agency announced a record 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release, but markets dismissed it — analysts noted the announcement lacked specifics on contributors, volumes, and timing, offering uncertainty rather than reassurance.
- For small businesses and working families, the financial pressure is not theoretical or distant; it is arriving now, at the moment of every fill-up, with more increases expected in the days immediately ahead.
- President Trump, who campaigned on a promise to lower energy costs, now faces a politically combustible reality: the war his administration chose is producing the price consequences his voters were promised would not come.
At gas stations across the country this week, drivers are confronting a number that hasn't appeared on those signs since spring 2024. The national average has climbed to $3.58 a gallon — a jump of nearly 60 cents in less than two weeks — driven directly by the war now unfolding between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
The trigger was February 28, when the Trump administration joined Israel in launching military strikes against Iran. Within days, disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz began rippling through global energy markets. On Wednesday, more ships were struck in the strait, and traders responded with double-digit wholesale price increases in a single session — changes that, by rule, show up at the pump the following day.
For Washington state drivers, the damage is already worse: $4.63 per gallon as of Monday, reflecting both the global supply shock and the region's historically higher fuel taxes and refinery costs. Further increases are expected, compounded by the annual transition to summer-grade gasoline — a cleaner-burning formulation that costs more to produce — adding upward pressure independent of anything happening in the Persian Gulf.
Crude oil prices rose Wednesday even after the International Energy Agency announced a record 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release. Markets were unmoved. Analysts noted the IEA failed to specify which countries would contribute, how much, or when — leaving traders with more uncertainty than reassurance.
The human cost is immediate. As one small business lender observed, geopolitical shockwaves don't take months to reach ordinary people — they arrive in days, felt the moment someone pulls up to fill a tank. The political cost may prove just as swift. Energy prices were a central pillar of Trump's 2024 campaign, and with midterm elections in November, a sustained spike at the pump threatens to become the most tangible measure by which voters judge his presidency. The war was a choice; the price consequences are now a fact of daily life, and the distance between those two things is shrinking fast.
At gas stations across the country this week, drivers pulling up to the pump are confronting a number that hasn't appeared on those signs since the spring of 2024. The national average price of gasoline has climbed past $3.50 a gallon, settling at $3.58 by Wednesday — a jump of nearly 60 cents in less than two weeks, driven directly by the war now unfolding between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
The trigger was February 28, when the Trump administration joined Israel in launching military strikes against Iran. Within days, disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which a significant share of the world's crude oil passes — began rippling outward through global energy markets. On Wednesday, more ships were struck in the strait, and traders responded accordingly. Spot and wholesale gasoline prices registered double-digit increases in a single session. Wholesale price changes, as a rule, show up at the pump the following day.
For drivers in Washington state, the numbers are already considerably worse. The state average stood at $4.63 per gallon as of Monday, a figure that reflects both the global supply shock and the region's historically higher fuel taxes and refinery costs.
More increases are expected before any relief arrives. The United States is also in the middle of its annual transition to summer-grade gasoline — a cleaner-burning formulation that costs more to produce — which adds upward pressure on prices independent of whatever happens in the Persian Gulf. The two forces together, analysts say, make further increases in the days ahead close to certain.
Crude oil prices, which form the largest single component of what consumers pay at the pump, were also rising Wednesday despite an announcement from the International Energy Agency that it would release a record 400 million barrels of oil from member nations' strategic reserves. The announcement did little to calm markets. Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, noted that the IEA failed to specify which countries would contribute, how much each would release, or when the oil would actually reach the market — leaving traders with more uncertainty than reassurance.
The human arithmetic is straightforward and immediate. William Stern, chief executive of Cardiff, a small business lender based in the United States, put it plainly: geopolitical shockwaves don't take months to reach ordinary people. They arrive in days, felt the moment someone pulls up to a pump to fill a tank before driving their kids to practice.
The political stakes are equally direct. Energy costs were a central pillar of Donald Trump's 2024 campaign — he ran, in part, on a promise to bring prices down. With midterm elections scheduled for November, a sustained spike at the pump threatens to become one of the most tangible measures by which voters judge his presidency. The war with Iran was a choice; the price consequences are now a fact of daily life for millions of Americans, and the distance between those two things is shrinking fast.
For now, the markets are watching the strait. Every ship struck, every tanker rerouted, every day the conflict continues is another variable pushing prices higher. The IEA's reserve release, if and when it materializes in concrete terms, may offer some cushion — but the details that would make it credible have yet to appear.
Citas Notables
Geopolitical shockwaves don't take months to hit your wallet. They take days — you feel the squeeze the second you fill up your car just to take the kids to practice.— William Stern, CEO of Cardiff, a U.S. small business lender
The IEA's reserve release announcement raised more questions than answers, since the group did not specify who would release how much oil, or when.— Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
How fast did prices actually move after the US joined the strikes on Iran?
Nearly 60 cents a gallon in under two weeks. That's not a gradual drift — that's a jolt.
Is the Strait of Hormuz really that critical to global oil supply?
It's one of the most consequential chokepoints on earth. A meaningful share of the world's crude passes through it. When ships start getting hit there, traders don't wait to see how bad it gets.
The IEA announced a record reserve release. Why didn't that calm things down?
Because the announcement was essentially a headline without a plan. No country named, no quantities assigned, no timeline given. Markets need specifics to price in relief, and those specifics weren't there.
Washington state at $4.63 — is that just the war, or are other things piling on?
Both. The state already runs higher than the national average due to taxes and regional refinery dynamics. The global shock lands on top of that existing floor.
What's the summer-grade fuel transition, and why does it matter right now?
Every spring, refineries switch to a cleaner-burning summer blend that costs more to produce. It's a predictable annual price bump — but hitting it simultaneously with a supply shock amplifies both.
How does this land politically for Trump?
He won in part by promising cheaper energy. Now the war his administration chose to enter is one of the primary reasons energy is getting more expensive. That's a difficult story to tell voters by November.
Is there any near-term scenario where prices come back down?
If the conflict de-escalates and the strait reopens to normal traffic, yes. But right now the trajectory is still upward, and the next few days at the pump will likely confirm that.