US and Israel launch major offensive against Iran, killing supreme leader Khamenei

Dramatic shift toward US-Israel regional hegemony with elimination of Iran's supreme authority. Potential power vacuum in Iran creates unpredictability. Weakens Iran-aligned axis (Syria, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias). Strengthens Israeli security position but risks unified regional response. European influence marginalized; China/Russia positioning as alternative power brokers.

Similar to 2003 Iraq invasion (regime change justification, regional destabilization, unintended consequences) and 1953 CIA-backed Iranian coup (external intervention in Iranian governance with decades-long blowback).

Consumers face higher energy prices (oil spike), increased inflation, potential supply chain disruptions for goods, higher insurance costs, and reduced discretionary spending due to economic uncertainty and potential recession fears.

Governments likely to increase defense budgets, implement strategic petroleum reserve releases to stabilize oil prices, impose new sanctions regimes, review trade agreements, and potentially activate emergency economic measures. Central banks may adjust monetary policy in response to inflation pressures.