Washington must prove its commitment by ending the war
In the mountains above Lucerne, the United States and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding that seeks to draw a line beneath fifteen weeks of war in the Middle East — offering Tehran the immediate right to sell oil in exchange for nuclear restraint and open seas. It is the kind of agreement that announces itself as a beginning rather than an end, with the harder questions of sanctions, sovereignty, and survival deferred to sixty days of negotiations that all parties expect to be far more bruising than what came before. Behind the diplomatic ceremony lies a Lebanon in ruins, a region still burning, and a peace whose terms remain, in every meaningful sense, unwritten.
- Iran gains immediate economic oxygen through resumed oil sales, but the relief is conditional — one breach of the memorandum and the lifeline disappears.
- The real negotiation hasn't started yet: a 60-day window opens Friday to resolve the fate of Iran's nuclear programme and the architecture of sanctions, with China already warning the second phase will be far harder.
- Israeli strikes continued in southern Lebanon even as the ink was drying, killing at least four people, while Hezbollah signals it expects Israeli troop withdrawal as the price of any lasting deal.
- Netanyahu broke his silence with unusual distance from Trump, warning that Israel's security interests may not align with Washington's framework — a fissure that could destabilise the entire agreement.
- Over 1.2 million Lebanese remain displaced, 247 children are dead, and in the Iranian town of Sirik families were still queuing for water after American strikes damaged their supply — for those living in the wreckage, a signed document offers little immediate comfort.
On Friday, at a secluded resort near Lucerne, the United States and Iran will formally sign a memorandum of understanding intended to end the war consuming the Middle East. The ceremony at Burgenstock marks a threshold moment — but both sides acknowledge the harder work begins immediately after.
Under the agreement, Iran may resume oil and fuel sales at once, a significant economic concession for a nation long strangled by sanctions. The relief, however, is conditional: Iran must keep the Strait of Hormuz open, forswear nuclear weapons, and honour every clause of the deal. American lawmakers are already pushing back, with Senate majority leader John Thune requesting the full text from the Trump administration — a request that had gone unanswered as of Tuesday.
The signing launches sixty days of intensive negotiations over sanctions relief and Iran's nuclear programme. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi has cautioned that this second phase will be 'more difficult' than the first. Trump expressed confidence it would 'go quickly'; few observers agree.
The agreement arrives against a backdrop of profound destruction. Fifteen weeks of war in Lebanon — triggered when Hezbollah fired on Israel in support of Tehran — have displaced more than 1.2 million people, damaged over 68,000 housing units, and killed 247 children, 363 women, and 133 healthcare workers. Lebanon's economy is contracting by at least 7 percent this year, compounding a near-40 percent GDP collapse since 2019.
The violence did not pause for diplomacy. Israeli drone strikes killed at least four people in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, drawing an Iranian military warning of a 'hard response.' Hezbollah has signalled it expects Israeli troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon as a condition of any nuclear deal — a demand likely to dominate the second phase of talks.
In the Iranian town of Sirik, where temperatures reached 45 degrees Celsius, residents were still queuing for water days after American strikes damaged local facilities. A mother named Nahid described her four-year-old waking in tears from dehydration. For people living in the aftermath of war, a signed memorandum offered little immediate relief.
Benjamin Netanyahu waited more than a day before commenting, and when he did, he was notably cool toward Trump. 'There are cases in which President Trump and I do not see eye to eye,' he said, adding only that the full terms of the agreement remained unknown. Trump, speaking at the G7, said the Strait of Hormuz would be open by Friday and that he would send the deal to Congress — confident, he said, that lawmakers would approve it. Iranian parliament official Ebrahim Azizi offered a starker framing: Washington must prove its commitment through action, and any breach would be met with a 'decisive, crushing response.'
On Friday, in a mountainside resort near Lucerne, the United States and Iran will sign a memorandum of understanding designed to end the war consuming the Middle East. The ceremony at Burgenstock, chosen for its isolation and security, marks the formal beginning of what both sides are calling a new chapter—though the harder work lies ahead.
Under the terms of the agreement, Iran will be permitted to resume oil and fuel sales immediately, a move that carries enormous economic weight for a nation strangled by sanctions. But the permission comes with conditions. Iran must maintain free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, must not pursue nuclear weapons, and must adhere to every clause of the memorandum. Breach any of it, and the relief evaporates. The arrangement is already drawing fire from American lawmakers opposed to offering Tehran financial breathing room, and the Senate majority leader, John Thune, has requested the full text of the deal from the Trump administration—a request that, as of Tuesday, had gone unanswered.
What happens after Friday is where the real negotiation begins. Two months of intensive talks will commence immediately following the signing ceremony. During this 60-day window, the two nations will hammer out decisions on lifting economic sanctions and determining the fate of Iran's nuclear programme. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi has already warned his Pakistani counterpart—one of the key mediators in these talks—that the second phase will be "more difficult" than the first. Trump has said he expects it to "go quickly," but few observers share that optimism.
The backdrop to all this is the devastation wrought by 15 weeks of war in Lebanon. Since March 2nd, when Iran-backed Hezbollah fired on Israel in support of Tehran, the country has been torn apart. More than 1.2 million people have been displaced by airstrikes and evacuation orders. Over 68,000 housing units have been damaged or destroyed—8,000 of them in Beirut and its southern suburbs alone, where the United Nations estimates damages at $365 million. The death toll includes 247 children, 363 women, and 133 healthcare workers. At least 28 Israeli soldiers have been killed, along with four Israeli civilians. Lebanon's economy is contracting by at least 7 percent this year, on top of a cumulative GDP decline of nearly 40 percent since 2019.
Even as the deal was being announced, the violence continued. On Tuesday, Israeli drone strikes killed at least four people in southern Lebanon—two in a double-tap strike in the village of Mayfadoun, where a second drone hit after people had gathered at the scene of the first strike, and two more in the town of Shoukin. Iran's military command responded with a warning that Israel should expect a "hard response" if the attacks did not stop. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has made clear to Reuters that it believes Iran will not sign a nuclear deal with Washington unless Israel withdraws its troops from southern Lebanon—a condition that will almost certainly dominate the second phase of negotiations.
In the rural town of Sirik in southern Iran, where temperatures have climbed to 45 degrees Celsius, residents were still queuing for water days after American strikes reportedly damaged two drinking water facilities. A mother named Nahid described her four-year-old waking up crying from dehydration. The water supply was restored after 12 hours, but the flow remained far below what families needed. For people living in the aftermath of war, the announcement of a peace deal brought little immediate relief.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, waited more than a day before commenting on the agreement. When he finally spoke at a press conference on Monday evening, he notably sidestepped his usual praise for his relationship with Donald Trump. "There are cases in which President Trump and I do not see eye to eye," he said. "I am responsible for Israel's security interests, and it needs to be done wisely." On the deal itself, he urged critics to withhold judgment: "We do not know what the agreement will be."
Trump, speaking at the G7 summit, said the Strait of Hormuz would be open by Friday and that the full text of the peace deal would be released in a "formal setting." He also indicated he would send the agreement to Congress for review, expressing confidence that lawmakers would approve it. "I mean who wouldn't approve it," he said. But the path forward remains uncertain. Qatar, a key mediator, expressed cautious optimism that the framework could deliver regional security. An Iranian official, Ebrahim Azizi, head of parliament's national security commission, issued a stark warning on social media: "Washington must prove its commitment by ending the war against Lebanon and upholding every clause of the MOU. Any breach will be met with a decisive, crushing response."
Citações Notáveis
There are cases in which President Trump and I do not see eye to eye. I am responsible for Israel's security interests, and it needs to be done wisely.— Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister
Washington must prove its commitment by ending the war against Lebanon and upholding every clause of the MOU. Any breach will be met with a decisive, crushing response.— Ebrahim Azizi, head of Iranian parliament's national security commission
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Iran getting to sell oil again matter so much to this deal?
Because it's the only thing that makes the agreement real for Tehran. Sanctions have strangled their economy for years. Without the ability to move oil on the global market, there's no incentive to stay at the table when things get hard in those second-phase talks.
But the US is putting conditions on it—nuclear restraint, keeping the strait open. How does Iran accept that?
They're betting they can live with those conditions because they get something back. And because the alternative is more war. Fifteen weeks of war in Lebanon has killed hundreds of people, displaced over a million. That's a real cost.
Netanyahu seemed unhappy about this. Does that mean Israel could derail the whole thing?
Netanyahu is in a difficult position. He's been saying for years that Iran is the existential threat, but Trump just negotiated with them anyway. He can't openly break with Trump, so he's signaling caution instead. But Israeli strikes in Lebanon are continuing even as the deal is being signed. That's a message too.
What happens in those two months of final negotiations?
That's where the real fight happens. Sanctions lifting, nuclear inspections, what happens to Hezbollah—all of it. And China is already warning that phase two will be harder than phase one. Everyone knows the easy part is done.
Is this actually going to hold?
That depends on whether both sides believe the other side is serious about keeping its word. Right now, people in southern Lebanon are still dying in drone strikes. That doesn't feel like a ceasefire to them.