Things are moving, but we are not there yet.
Across the fractured geography of the Middle East, two long-estranged powers find themselves edging, haltingly, toward a pause in their conflict — not reconciliation, but a breath. Pakistan, playing the quiet intermediary, reports that Washington and Tehran are narrowing the distance between their positions, with a modest interim agreement — one focused on stopping the fighting and reopening the Strait of Hormuz — potentially within reach by weekend. The deeper wounds, particularly over Iran's nuclear ambitions, remain unhealed, but history sometimes turns on the smallest of provisional agreements.
- Global markets surged and oil prices dropped sharply on news of a possible deal, revealing just how much the world's economic nervous system has been rattled by the strait's closure.
- The week nearly unraveled entirely — Iran launched missiles at the UAE, and the US fired on an Iranian tanker hours after Trump threatened bombing at a far greater scale than before.
- The core dispute remains unresolved: Trump wants Iran's enriched uranium shipped to the US and a 20-25 year nuclear moratorium; Iran is offering three to five years and refusing to surrender its stockpile.
- Pakistan is threading the needle through indirect channels, with diplomats noting that both sides have begun retreating from their opening maximalist positions — a sign of movement, if not yet resolution.
- Iran's internal calculus is complicated by factions tempted to stall until US midterms, but analysts warn that waiting risks losing the current window entirely, potentially leaving Tehran isolated under crushing sanctions.
Pakistani officials emerged from closed-door meetings Thursday with a striking claim: the United States and Iran were close to a temporary agreement to stop fighting. After days of oscillating between hope and violence, a basic interim deal — potentially a single-page memo — could be signed as early as the weekend. Its scope was deliberately narrow: halt the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas normally flows. Deeper disputes, especially over Iran's nuclear program, would be deferred to a second phase of negotiations.
Global markets responded immediately, with stock indices climbing toward record highs as oil prices fell. Yet skepticism shadowed the optimism. Previous rounds of talks had produced little, and the ceasefire had nearly collapsed earlier in the week when Iran struck the UAE with missiles and drones, and the US military fired on an Iranian tanker shortly after Trump issued a fresh ultimatum threatening intensified bombing.
The substantive gaps remain formidable. Trump is demanding Iran export its highly enriched uranium to the United States and accept a 20-to-25-year nuclear moratorium. Iran has countered with three to five years and refuses to surrender its stockpile of 60%-enriched material. It also wants roughly $6 billion in frozen assets released. Mediators believe a compromise near ten years might be achievable, but no breakthrough has materialized.
Iran's internal politics add further complexity. President Pezeshkian met Thursday with Supreme Leader Khamenei — his first public appearance since March — in what analysts read as an effort to unify Iran's fractious institutions behind a single negotiating stance. Some Iranian officials favor prolonging talks until the US midterms, hoping domestic pressure will force Washington into better terms. But regional diplomats cautioned that Iran risks overplaying its hand: the current moment offers a chance to end the fighting and claim a measure of victory, one that may not return if combat resumes or if Washington simply walks away, leaving Tehran under sanctions with nothing to show for it.
The proposed structure — an initial accord on the war and the strait, followed by thirty days of nuclear negotiations — offers a plausible path. Pakistani officials remained publicly optimistic. But as one diplomat put it, things were moving. They were not there yet.
Pakistani officials emerged from closed-door meetings on Thursday with a claim that could reshape the Middle East: the United States and Iran were close to a temporary agreement to stop fighting. The announcement came after days of wild swings between hope and despair, with both sides testing each other's resolve through threats, sporadic violence, and carefully calibrated rhetoric. A basic interim deal, officials in Islamabad said, could be signed as early as the weekend.
The proposal on the table was deliberately modest in scope. Rather than attempt to resolve the fundamental disputes that have kept the two countries at odds for decades, the interim arrangement would focus on two concrete objectives: halting the war itself and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas normally flows. A senior Pakistani official told Reuters that the priority was securing a public declaration of permanent peace, with other issues deferred to later direct negotiations. The gaps between Washington and Tehran on deeper questions—particularly Iran's nuclear program—remained too wide to bridge in a single agreement, but a one-page memo addressing immediate security concerns seemed achievable.
The news sent global markets surging. Stock indices climbed toward record highs as oil prices fell sharply, a visceral market response to the possibility that the blockade choking Iranian commerce and the Iranian closure of the strait might soon end. Yet skepticism hung over the proceedings. Trump and Pakistani officials had repeatedly predicted breakthroughs that never materialized. Weeks of previous negotiating efforts had produced little concrete progress. The ceasefire itself had nearly collapsed earlier in the week when Iran launched missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates in response to a Trump initiative to protect stranded shipping, and when the US military fired on an Iranian-flagged oil tanker hours after Trump issued a fresh ultimatum: accept a deal or face bombing "at a much higher level and intensity than it was before."
Pakistan had positioned itself as the principal mediator after hosting a round of face-to-face talks the previous month that ended without agreement. Now, through indirect channels, both sides appeared to be softening their opening positions. "The distance between their proposals is reducing," a diplomat in Islamabad with knowledge of the talks said. "That's natural. They start off with maximalist positions and then soften." Trump himself told PBS he was optimistic, saying the deal had "a very good chance of ending" before his scheduled trip to China the following week.
But the substance of the disagreement remained stark. Trump was demanding that Iran export its highly enriched uranium—the material necessary for nuclear weapons—directly to the United States, a condition experts said Iran could not accept. The US had proposed a 20-to-25-year moratorium on nuclear enrichment; Iran had countered with three to five years. Mediators believed a compromise around ten years might be possible, but Iran also refused to hand over its stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium. Beyond the nuclear question, Iran wanted roughly $6 billion in frozen overseas assets unfrozen, particularly funds held in Qatar. The US blockade had strangled Iranian commerce, though a confidential CIA analysis suggested it would take more than three or four months to inflict truly severe economic damage.
Iran's internal politics added another layer of uncertainty. President Masoud Pezeshkian met Thursday with the country's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who had not appeared in public since his appointment in early March. Analysts interpreted the meeting as an effort to align Iran's fractious institutions behind a unified negotiating position. Some senior Iranian officials favored dragging out talks until closer to the November US midterm elections, when the Trump administration would face intense domestic pressure to end the war and Iran might extract better terms. But regional diplomats warned that Iran could overplay its hand. The current moment offered a chance to end the fighting and claim victory—something that might prove harder if combat resumed. Alternatively, Washington could simply walk away unilaterally, leaving Iran crushed under economic sanctions with no agreement at all.
The proposed two-phase structure offered a path forward: an initial accord ending the war and reopening the strait, followed by thirty days of negotiation on the nuclear question. Trump's foreign ministry spokesperson, Tahir Andrabi, told reporters on Thursday that Pakistan remained optimistic. "We expect an agreement sooner rather than later," he said. Yet the phrase itself—repeated by multiple officials—suggested hope tempered by experience. Things were moving, diplomats acknowledged. But they were not there yet.
Notable Quotes
Both sides are now more amenable to suggestions, the distance between their proposals is reducing. That's natural. They start off with maximalist positions and then soften.— Diplomat in Islamabad with knowledge of negotiations
I think it's got a very good chance of ending, and if it doesn't end, we have to go back to bombing the hell out of them.— Donald Trump, in interview with PBS
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Pakistan matter so much here? They're not a party to the conflict.
Pakistan sits between the two sides geographically and diplomatically. They've hosted talks, they have relationships with both Washington and Tehran that neither side has completely severed. When direct talks fail, you need someone both sides can talk to without losing face.
The Strait of Hormuz keeps coming up. What makes it so central to this deal?
It's the chokepoint for global oil. If Iran closes it or threatens to, the world's economy feels it immediately. That's leverage. But it's also the thing both sides can agree to fix without solving everything else. You reopen the strait, you prove the ceasefire works, you buy time for the harder negotiations.
Trump is demanding Iran export its enriched uranium to America. That seems like a non-starter.
It is, according to people who understand Iran's position. But that's how these negotiations work—you ask for the moon, you settle for something closer to earth. The real question is whether there's any middle ground on how long Iran pauses enrichment and what happens to the uranium it already has.
Why would Iran want to drag this out until the midterms?
Because Trump will be under enormous pressure to show a win before voters go to the polls. Iran thinks it can get better terms from a weakened administration. But that's a gamble. If talks collapse, the US could just walk away and leave Iran strangled by sanctions.
What does "interim" actually mean here?
It means temporary. Stop fighting now, reopen shipping now, figure out the nuclear program later. It's not a solution. It's a pause that lets both sides claim they didn't lose while they keep negotiating the things that actually matter.
Is anyone actually confident this will happen?
The markets are betting on it—oil prices fell, stocks rose. But the officials saying it could happen by the weekend have been wrong before. The real test is whether both sides can live with ambiguity long enough to sign something.