The myth that only one candidate could defeat Cepeda has shattered
In the shifting currents of Colombian democracy, a far-right lawyer named Abelardo de la Espriella has risen to lead the presidential race for the first time, claiming 28 percent of voting intentions just months before the May 31 election. His ascent — measured against a leftist coalition still bearing the weight of the Petro government's record — suggests that Colombian society is actively searching for a new political direction. The poll, conducted in the days following the capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, hints that regional tremors may be reshaping the moral imagination of the Colombian electorate.
- A far-right candidate has seized the front of a race that, just weeks ago, belonged to the left — a reversal that few analysts predicted entering the new year.
- De la Espriella's nine-point lead over Cepeda in simulated runoff scenarios exposes a deep vulnerability in the Petro coalition's grip on the country's political future.
- The field is crowded and volatile: centrists, conservatives, and independents are all polling as viable runoff threats to the left, shattering the assumption that only one opposition figure could win.
- A geopolitical jolt — the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces — may have accelerated the rightward mood, lending urgency to anti-left sentiment across the region.
- With the election on May 31 and a likely runoff on June 21, Colombia is entering its most consequential political season in years, with the ideological stakes now fully in the open.
For the first time, Colombia's presidential race has a far-right frontrunner. Abelardo de la Espriella, the ultraconservative lawyer who leads the movement Defensores de la Patria, now commands 28 percent of voting intentions according to a poll released Saturday by AtlasIntel and published in Semana magazine. The result marks a striking reversal from December, when leftist senator Iván Cepeda held a commanding lead.
Cepeda, who represents the coalition of President Gustavo Petro, now trails De la Espriella by 1.5 points in the first round. Centrist Sergio Fajardo sits at 9.4 percent, while former Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzón and right-wing senator Paloma Valencia each draw around 5 percent. Former Bogotá mayor Claudia López registers 2.6 percent.
The runoff picture is even more telling. De la Espriella would defeat Cepeda 44.2 to 34.9 percent in a second round — a nine-point margin that stands in stark contrast to a December Invamer poll showing Cepeda ahead 31.9 to 18.2 percent. De la Espriella's campaign declared the numbers proof that his candidacy had become a structural force, not merely an emerging alternative.
The data also dismantles the notion that only one opposition candidate could beat Cepeda. Fajardo would defeat him 39.6 to 32.1 percent; even Valencia would prevail in a head-to-head. Political analyst Sandra Borda of the University of the Andes called it the end of a myth. The survey of 4,530 people, conducted January 5–8 with a one-percent margin of error, captures a moment of regional turbulence — including the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro — that may be reshaping what Colombian voters believe is possible.
For the first time, a far-right lawyer has taken the lead in Colombia's presidential race. Abelardo de la Espriella, who leads the movement Defensores de la Patria, now commands 28 percent of voting intention according to a poll released Saturday by the Brazilian firm AtlasIntel. The survey, published in the magazine Semana, marks a striking reversal from just over a month ago, when the leftist senator Iván Cepeda held a commanding lead.
De la Espriella's ascent reflects a significant realignment in Colombian politics ahead of the May 31 election. In the first round, he edges out Cepeda, who represents the coalition of President Gustavo Petro, by 1.5 percentage points. The centrist Sergio Fajardo, former mayor of Medellín and governor of Antioquia, trails both at 9.4 percent. Former Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzón and senator Paloma Valencia, of the right-wing Centro Democrático party, each draw 5.1 percent. Former Bogotá mayor Claudia López, running from the center-left, registers 2.6 percent.
The real story emerges in the runoff scenarios. If the election advances to a second round on June 21—which appears likely—De la Espriella would defeat Cepeda decisively, 44.2 percent to 34.9 percent, a margin of nine percentage points. This represents a dramatic shift from a December poll by Invamer, when Cepeda led with 31.9 percent to De la Espriella's 18.2 percent. The far-right candidate's campaign seized on the new numbers, declaring in a statement that his candidacy had transformed from an emerging alternative into a structural force with genuine capacity to win.
The polling suggests multiple viable paths to victory for candidates opposing the left. In a runoff between Fajardo and Cepeda, the centrist would prevail 39.6 percent to 32.1 percent. Even Paloma Valencia would beat Cepeda in a head-to-head matchup, 38.2 percent to 35.8 percent. Only against Pinzón would Cepeda emerge victorious, winning 36.4 percent to 31.9 percent. Political analyst Sandra Borda, a professor at the University of the Andes, noted on social media that the polling had shattered what she called the myth that only one candidate could defeat Cepeda in a runoff.
AtlasIntel surveyed 4,530 people between January 5 and 8, giving the poll a margin of error of one percent. The timing is significant: the survey captures the moment after the United States captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, an event that may have shifted Colombian political sentiment. De la Espriella's emergence as the frontrunner signals that Colombian voters are considering alternatives across the political spectrum as the country approaches its most consequential election in years.
Citações Notáveis
De la Espriella's candidacy has transformed from an emerging alternative into a structural force with genuine capacity to win— De la Espriella's campaign
The myth that only one candidate could defeat Cepeda in a runoff has shattered— Sandra Borda, political analyst at Universidad de los Andes
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
How did a far-right candidate move from the margins to leading the race in just six weeks?
The December poll showed him at 18 percent. Now he's at 28. That's not a gradual climb—it's a rupture. Something shifted in how people are thinking about their options.
What could cause that kind of movement?
The poll was taken right after the U.S. captured Maduro. That matters in Colombia. It signals a certain kind of strength, a certain direction. And Cepeda represents continuity with Petro's government, which has been in office for over a year now. People may be ready to look elsewhere.
But De la Espriella is far-right. That's not a small thing.
No, it's not. But the polling shows he's not alone. Fajardo, Valencia, Pinzón—they're all viable alternatives to Cepeda now. The left doesn't have a monopoly on the runoff anymore. That's the real story.
What does a runoff actually look like if De la Espriella makes it?
He beats Cepeda by nine points. That's a decisive margin. But it also means the second round becomes a choice between the far-right and the left, with no centrist option. That's a different kind of election than what people expected.
Is there any chance Cepeda doesn't make the runoff?
The polling suggests he's vulnerable. If Fajardo or Valencia surge, they could edge him out in the first round. But he's still at 26.5 percent. He's still in the race. The question is whether that holds.