Everyone who joined the army with me is dead.
Three years into a war that has reshaped the map of European security, Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange blows that reveal the asymmetry of their strategies: Ukraine strikes deep into Russian industrial territory to erode the machinery of war, while Russia answers by darkening the cities where ordinary Ukrainians live. With American commitment growing uncertain under a new administration, Europe is being pressed to decide how much of this burden it is willing to carry — and for how long.
- Ukrainian drones reached nearly 450 miles into Russian territory to knock a major oil refinery offline, signaling a dramatic expansion of Ukraine's long-range strike capability.
- Russia responded the same day with coordinated attacks on Odesa, Kupiansk, and Kherson — killing civilians, wounding 13-year-old twins, and cutting power and heat to 90,000 people.
- Donald Trump's direct talks with Moscow and his public attacks on Zelenskyy using Kremlin-aligned language have injected deep uncertainty into Western support, forcing Europe to accelerate its own military planning.
- The EU is drafting a major aid package — 1.5 million artillery rounds, air defence systems, and long-range missiles — while Britain and France propose a post-ceasefire reassurance force of under 30,000 troops.
- A captured North Korean soldier, the sole survivor of his unit, described the frontline fighting as 'brutal' and said he was considering asylum — a human detail that quietly measures the war's widening reach.
The war's geography is shifting, and both sides are making sure the other knows it. On Wednesday, Ukrainian drones struck the Syzran oil refinery in Russia's Samara region — nearly 450 miles from the Ukrainian border — knocking it offline and announcing, without words, that Ukraine's reach has grown.
Russia answered the same day across three cities. In Odesa, a second consecutive night of drone attacks left nearly 90,000 residents without power or heating. In Kupiansk, a guided bomb killed at least one person and buried a body under a collapsed residential building. In Kherson, bombs struck an apartment block and wounded 13-year-old twins among others. The pattern has become familiar: Ukraine targets Russian infrastructure; Russia targets the places where Ukrainians live.
Hanging over all of it is the question of American commitment. Trump has opened direct talks with Moscow and spent Wednesday publicly attacking Zelenskyy in language that echoed Kremlin talking points. That uncertainty has pushed the EU into motion. Brussels is drafting a proposal for 1.5 million artillery rounds, air defence systems, long-range missiles, and drones — each member state contributing according to the size of its economy. A sixteenth sanctions package targeting Russian banks, oil, and aluminium is also set for Monday, timed to mark three years since the invasion.
Britain and France are working on a parallel proposal: a reassurance force of fewer than 30,000 troops to remain in Ukraine after any peace deal, focused on air and maritime defence rather than ground combat. It is, in essence, a wager that a ceasefire is approaching and that someone will need to hold the line once it arrives.
The human cost accumulates in ways numbers struggle to hold. A captured North Korean soldier named Ri — visibly wounded, the only survivor of his unit — told a South Korean newspaper the fighting was 'brutal' and that he had never seen people die before he arrived at the front. South Korea announced it would accept him as a refugee. Russia also claimed its forces had crossed into Ukrainian territory from the Kursk region for the first time since 2022; Ukraine denied it, saying the reconnaissance unit was destroyed. Whether true or not, the claim itself is part of the war now — a battle over what is happening, fought alongside the battle over the ground.
The war's geography is shifting in ways both sides are now willing to demonstrate openly. On Wednesday, Ukrainian drones struck the Syzran oil refinery in Russia's Samara region—nearly 450 miles from the nearest Ukrainian border—and knocked it offline. The refinery stopped processing crude that same day, according to industry sources tracking the facility. It was a statement of capability, a signal that Ukraine's reach has extended far beyond the frontline.
But the same day, Russia answered with its own message, one written in rubble and blackouts across three Ukrainian cities. Odesa, in the south, endured a second consecutive night of drone attacks. Nearly 90,000 residents lost power and heating as the strikes fell. Four people, including a child, had been wounded the day before; Wednesday brought more of the same rhythm—attack, damage, displacement. In Kupiansk, northeast of Kharkiv, a Russian guided bomb killed at least one person, possibly two depending on which official count you trusted. Rescuers pulled a body from under the wreckage of a residential building. Two more were hurt in a nearby village. In Kherson, guided bombs hit an apartment block. Among the injured were 13-year-old twins.
This is the pattern now: Ukraine reaches deep into Russian territory with precision strikes on infrastructure; Russia responds by targeting the places where Ukrainian civilians live. The calculus is different on each side. Ukraine is trying to degrade Russia's war-making capacity. Russia is trying to break the will of the population that sustains it.
The uncertainty hanging over all of this is American. Donald Trump has begun direct talks with Russia and spent Wednesday attacking Volodymyr Zelenskyy with language that echoed Kremlin talking points. That absence of clarity about U.S. commitment has pushed the European Union into motion. Officials in Brussels have drafted a proposal for substantially increased military aid: 1.5 million rounds of artillery ammunition to arrive this year, air defence systems, long-range precision missiles, and drones. Each EU member state would contribute based on the size of its economy. Diplomats held preliminary discussions this week, with foreign ministers expected to take it up on Monday.
The EU is also preparing a sixteenth sanctions package against Russia—restrictions on banks, new measures on the oil price cap, a ban on Russian aluminium imports, and expanded export controls. That too is scheduled for Monday, timed to mark three years since the invasion began.
Britain and France are working on something different: a proposal for a "reassurance force" of fewer than 30,000 troops that would remain in Ukraine after any peace deal, focused on air and maritime defence rather than ground combat. The force would not be positioned near the eastern frontline. Its purpose would be to prevent future Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, ports, and critical infrastructure—and to secure the airspace and sea lanes needed for commercial flights and grain exports. It is, in other words, a bet that a ceasefire is coming, and that someone will need to enforce it.
Meanwhile, the human cost of the fighting continues to accumulate in ways that statistics cannot quite capture. South Korea announced it would accept a North Korean soldier captured by Ukrainian forces as a refugee. The soldier, identified as Ri, told a South Korean newspaper he was "80 percent" decided on applying for asylum. He was visibly wounded. He described the fighting as "brutal." Everyone who had enlisted with him was dead. "When I finally entered the battle, it was truly brutal," he said. "I had never seen people die before." Many of his fellow North Korean soldiers had been killed by drones and artillery fire.
Russia claimed on Wednesday that its 810th brigade had crossed into Ukrainian territory from the Kursk region—which would have been the first such incursion since 2022. Ukraine denied it. An official responsible for countering disinformation said a Russian reconnaissance unit had attempted the crossing but was destroyed. The claim itself, whether true or false, is a measure of how the war is being fought now: not just with weapons, but with competing narratives about what is happening on the ground.
Notable Quotes
When I finally entered the battle, it was truly brutal. I had never seen people die before.— North Korean soldier Ri, interviewed by Chosun Ilbo
Putin's information about a large-scale Russian offensive is a lie. A Russian reconnaissance unit had tried to cross but was destroyed.— Andriy Kovalenko, Ukrainian official responsible for countering disinformation
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a refinery 450 miles away matter so much to Ukraine right now?
Because it's proof they can reach deep into Russian territory and damage the machinery of the war effort itself. It's not just symbolic—it's functional. A refinery that isn't processing oil is a refinery that isn't feeding the Russian military.
But Russia just responded by hitting civilians in three different cities the same day. Doesn't that suggest Ukraine's strikes aren't actually changing the outcome?
Not necessarily. Russia has to respond because it can't afford to look weak. But the fact that it's responding by hitting apartment buildings instead of military targets tells you something about what options Russia actually has left.
The EU is preparing this military aid package. Does that mean they think the U.S. is really stepping back?
They're not waiting to find out. Trump's already talking to Russia directly, and he spent Wednesday attacking Zelenskyy. From Brussels's perspective, you can't assume American support will be there in six months. So you move now.
What's the "reassurance force" actually for? It sounds like they're already planning for the war to end.
They're planning for the ceasefire to hold. If there's a deal, someone has to make sure Russia doesn't just restart the war in a year. Thirty thousand troops on air and maritime defence—that's not an invasion force. It's an insurance policy.
That North Korean soldier—what does his story tell us about how the war is actually being fought?
That Russia is running out of Russian soldiers. North Korea is sending its own people to die in a war that isn't theirs. And those soldiers are seeing things they've never seen before. That's not sustainable indefinitely.