We're not waiting for your diplomacy, we're locking in our partnership first
As Donald Trump's presidency stood hours away, the world's powers moved to secure their positions in a rapidly shifting order. Russia and Iran formalized their deepening alliance in Moscow, while European leaders fought to preserve the sanctions architecture that has defined Western resistance to the war in Ukraine. From Warsaw to Beijing, the question animating every diplomatic move was the same: what kind of world would Monday morning bring?
- Russia and Iran signed a sweeping strategic partnership in Moscow — a deliberate signal that neither nation intends to wait passively for American policy to redefine their fate.
- Hungary is blocking EU sanctions renewal, holding the entire bloc's leverage over Russia hostage to the direction of a presidency not yet one day old.
- EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas is pushing back hard, warning that abandoning sanctions now would mean surrendering the West's most powerful non-military tool without gaining anything in return.
- Xi Jinping and Trump spoke by phone for the first time since 2021, with China quietly positioning itself as a potential mediator in both Ukraine and the Middle East.
- British prime minister Starmer traveled to Kyiv to urge allies to 'double down' on Ukraine, insisting that only peace on Ukraine's terms is acceptable — a message aimed directly at the incoming administration.
- With Trump's inauguration seventy-two hours away at the story's opening, the diplomatic landscape is already in motion, and no one can fully predict where it will land.
On Friday, with Trump's inauguration just forty-eight hours away, Vladimir Putin and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian signed a sweeping strategic partnership treaty in Moscow. Covering military cooperation, trade, science, and cultural exchange, the agreement was the most formal expression yet of a relationship forged in the shadow of the Ukraine war. "We witness a new chapter of strategic relations," Pezeshkian declared. The timing was no accident — both nations face mounting Western pressure, and the treaty was their answer: they would bind themselves closer rather than wait for American policy to shift. Western intelligence agencies have long accused Iran of supplying Russia with drones used to strike Ukrainian cities, a charge both governments deny.
In Brussels, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas was fighting to keep the West's sanctions architecture intact. With the bloc's fifteenth round of measures due for renewal by January 31st — requiring unanimous approval from all twenty-seven member states — Hungary was holding out, waiting to see which way Trump would move. Kallas was blunt: nothing on the ground had changed, Putin's goals had not changed, and there was no basis for lifting the pressure.
Elsewhere, the world was already repositioning. Xi Jinping and Trump spoke by phone for the first time since 2021, discussing trade, Taiwan, fentanyl, and both the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts. Beijing announced the two had agreed to open a channel of strategic communication — a sign that major powers were maneuvering for influence before the new administration had even taken its oath.
In Warsaw and then Kyiv, British prime minister Keir Starmer was making his own case for solidarity. After meeting Polish prime minister Donald Tusk on a proposed defense treaty, Starmer traveled to Ukraine for his first official visit with Zelenskyy, urging world leaders to double down on their support. The only acceptable outcome, he said, was peace on Ukraine's terms. The Western alliance was trying to hold its ground — but the ground itself felt unstable, and the next seventy-two hours promised to reshape the diplomatic landscape in ways no one could fully predict.
On Friday, as Donald Trump's inauguration loomed forty-eight hours away, Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian signed a sweeping strategic partnership treaty in Moscow. The agreement, which the two leaders described as covering everything from military cooperation and trade to science, education, and cultural exchange, represented the latest and most formal deepening of ties between Russia and Iran since Putin sent troops into Ukraine nearly three years ago. "We witness a new chapter of strategic relations," Pezeshkian said, his words carrying weight in a moment when both nations faced mounting pressure from the West.
The timing was deliberate. Trump has promised to broker peace in Ukraine and adopt a harder line toward Iran, a country already struggling with economic collapse and military losses across the Middle East. For Russia and Iran, the treaty was a signal: they would not wait passively for American policy to shift. They would bind themselves closer together. Western intelligence agencies have long accused Iran of supplying Russia with hundreds of drones used to strike Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Both Moscow and Tehran have denied the charge, but the accusation hangs over their partnership like a shadow neither can quite shake off.
In Brussels, the European Union's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, was pushing back hard against any suggestion that sanctions on Russia should be loosened or abandoned. "We definitely need the sanctions in place. This is our leverage, and it would be very strange to give it away," she told journalists on Friday. The EU has imposed fifteen rounds of sanctions on Moscow since the 2022 invasion. The bloc's next decision on extending those measures must come by January 31st, and it requires unanimous approval from all twenty-seven member states. Hungary, however, was holding firm, waiting to see which way Trump would move before committing. Kallas was unsparing in her assessment: "Things haven't changed. Putin hasn't changed his goals and nothing has changed on the ground. So there is no basis for lifting the sanctions."
Meanwhile, in a separate development that suggested the global power structure was already shifting in anticipation of Trump's return, Chinese president Xi Jinping spoke directly with Trump by phone—their first conversation since 2021. According to China's foreign ministry, the two men discussed trade, fentanyl, Taiwan, and notably, both the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict. They agreed to establish what Beijing called "a channel of strategic communication." Trump has previously suggested that China could help mediate international crises, including Ukraine. The call suggested that even as the West braced for uncertainty, other major powers were positioning themselves for influence.
In Warsaw, British prime minister Keir Starmer was making his own push for solidarity. After meeting with Polish prime minister Donald Tusk to discuss a proposed defense-focused treaty, Starmer traveled to Ukraine for talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy—his first official visit to Kyiv since taking office. He urged world leaders to "double down" on supporting Ukraine, a message aimed squarely at the incoming American administration. When asked about Trump's potential impact on Western unity, Starmer sidestepped the question but made his position clear: the only acceptable path forward was "peace on Ukraine's terms." The subtext was unmistakable. As Trump prepared to take office, the Western alliance was trying to hold its ground, but the ground itself felt unstable. The next seventy-two hours would reshape the diplomatic landscape in ways no one could fully predict.
Notable Quotes
We witness a new chapter of strategic relations— Masoud Pezeshkian, Iranian president
We definitely need the sanctions in place. This is our leverage, and it would be very strange to give it away— Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does the Russia-Iran treaty matter right now, at this particular moment?
Because Trump is about to take office promising to end the Ukraine war, and Russia and Iran are essentially saying: we're not waiting for your diplomacy, we're locking in our partnership first. It's a move of confidence, or maybe desperation—they're betting they'll need each other more in the months ahead.
But hasn't Russia and Iran been working together for years?
Yes, but this treaty is different. It's formal, comprehensive, and it's signed right before Trump takes power. It's a statement. They're saying to the West: your sanctions haven't broken us, and we're getting stronger together.
What's the EU actually worried about?
That Trump will pressure them to drop sanctions, or that he'll cut a deal with Russia that leaves Ukraine exposed. If sanctions collapse, Russia has won without firing another shot. Kallas is essentially saying: don't give away our only real leverage.
And the China call—is that Trump reaching out or Xi reaching out?
Probably both. But the fact that they're talking about Ukraine and establishing a "channel of strategic communication" suggests China sees an opening. If Trump is serious about ending the war, he might ask Beijing to help. That gives China influence it didn't have before.
So everyone's moving at once?
Everyone's moving at once. Russia and Iran are locking in their alliance. The EU is trying to hold the line on sanctions. Britain is trying to shore up Ukraine support. China is positioning itself as a potential mediator. It's like watching a chess board where every piece is moving simultaneously, and nobody knows what the new position will look like when Trump sits down at the table.