The Russians are getting stronger due to greater income from oil exports
In the long and grinding arithmetic of the Ukraine war, a phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on a Saturday morning carried the weight of possibility: Russia, Putin signaled, would be ready to resume peace negotiations once a cycle of prisoner exchanges concluded around June 22. The call — their fifth since Trump returned to office — marked a rhythm of engagement absent in recent years, though the distance between signaling and settlement remains vast. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy watched the global oil market rise in the wake of Middle East strikes and understood, with quiet alarm, that what happens in one theater of conflict can quietly strengthen an adversary in another.
- Russia and the United States are holding direct, frequent conversations about Ukraine for the first time in years, with Putin naming June 22 as the moment talks could formally resume — a date tethered to the completion of ongoing prisoner swaps.
- The prisoner exchanges themselves have become the war's most human and visible diplomacy: wounded soldiers and the bodies of the fallen crossing lines in both directions, with families waiting, flags raised, and phone calls made through tears.
- Zelenskyy is warning Washington that the tone toward Moscow has grown dangerously warm, and that American goodwill toward Russia is not the same thing as pressure on Russia — a distinction he fears is being lost.
- Israeli strikes on Iran sent oil prices surging, and Zelenskyy immediately connected the dots: higher energy revenues flow directly into Russia's war economy, tightening Ukraine's position at the very moment diplomacy is supposed to be opening.
- The convergence of the prisoner exchange timeline and Putin's proposed negotiation window suggests both sides are using the swaps as a diplomatic runway — but the terms, concessions, and sincerity of either party remain entirely unresolved.
On a Saturday morning, Vladimir Putin called Donald Trump — ostensibly to offer birthday wishes, but carrying a more consequential message: Russia was prepared to resume peace negotiations with Ukraine after June 22, once the current cycle of prisoner exchanges had run its course. The call lasted fifty minutes. Trump acknowledged the Ukraine dimension publicly, writing that Putin's war "should also end," while hinting that further discussions would follow in the coming week.
This was the fifth direct conversation between the two leaders since Trump returned to office — a frequency that signals a sharp shift in American diplomatic posture. The prisoner exchanges, the only concrete outcome of two rounds of Istanbul talks, had taken on a rhythm of their own: on Saturday alone, Ukraine and Russia conducted their fourth swap in a single week. The footage was quietly moving — men wrapped in flags, some injured, stepping off buses into embraces, others breaking into smiles or raising fists. Yet even here, a gap persisted: Russian state media claimed Moscow had not received any of its war dead, continuing a dispute over reciprocity that shadowed the exchanges.
Zelenskyy did not commit to the next round of talks, saying only that once the swaps concluded, "the parties will discuss the next step." But he delivered a sharper message to Washington: American dialogue with Russia had grown "too warm," he said, and warmth without pressure would not end the war. His more urgent warning concerned the global oil market. Israeli strikes on Iran had sent prices spiking, and Zelenskyy understood the implication immediately — higher oil revenues meant a stronger Russian war economy, at precisely the moment Ukraine needed Western military support to hold steady. He feared, too, that Western resources might be drawn toward the Middle East, as had happened before.
The diplomatic window Putin described — talks after June 22 — would open just as the prisoner exchanges concluded, a convergence that appeared deliberate. Both sides seemed to be using the swaps as a runway toward renewed negotiations. But the terms, the scope, and the willingness to make real concessions remained entirely unclear. What was clear was that Trump's engagement with Putin had accelerated, that Moscow was signaling flexibility on timing, and that the oil market had just handed Russia an unexpected financial advantage. For Ukraine, the arithmetic was tightening.
On Saturday, Vladimir Putin picked up the phone to Donald Trump with a dual message: birthday wishes for the American president's 79th year, and something more pressing—a signal that Russia stood ready to resume peace negotiations with Ukraine once a specific date passed. That date was June 22. By then, Putin explained through his aide Yuri Ushakov, the two sides would have completed their current cycle of prisoner exchanges and the return of soldiers' bodies. The call lasted fifty minutes. Trump, posting on Truth Social, framed the conversation around the Middle East crisis first, but acknowledged the Ukraine dimension: "his war should also end," Trump wrote, referring to the conflict that has now stretched across more than 1,200 days.
This was the fifth direct conversation between Putin and Trump since the Republican took office—a frequency that marks a sharp departure from the Biden administration's approach. Trump hinted that more discussions on Ukraine would follow in the coming week, suggesting the diplomatic machinery was beginning to turn in earnest. The timing mattered. Prisoner exchanges had become the only tangible result of two recent rounds of talks held in Istanbul, and on Saturday itself, Ukraine and Russia conducted their fourth such swap in a single week. Videos and photographs told the human story: men of various ages wrapped in flags, some injured, stepping off buses to embrace those waiting for them, others making phone calls with their faces covered or breaking into smiles. Moscow's defense ministry released its own footage—uniformed soldiers holding Russian flags, chanting, raising their fists. Yet even in this moment of exchange, a gap remained: Russian state media reported that Moscow had not received any of its war dead, a claim that echoed statements from the previous day when Russia said it had returned 1,200 Ukrainian bodies without reciprocal return.
Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not commit to the next round of talks, only noting that "the exchanges will be completed and the parties will discuss the next step." But he sent a pointed message to Washington: the tone of American dialogue with Russia was "too warm," he said, and would not serve the cause of ending the fighting. More urgently, Zelenskyy warned that the escalating crisis between Israel and Iran—which had triggered a sharp spike in global oil prices following Israeli strikes on Friday—posed a direct threat to Ukraine's position. Higher oil prices meant higher revenue for Russia, which depends heavily on energy exports to fund its war machine. Without effective Western price caps on Russian oil, Zelenskyy said, Moscow would grow stronger precisely when Ukraine needed Western military aid to remain constant. He expressed fear that resources might be diverted to Israel, as had happened before. "The Russians are getting stronger due to greater income from oil exports," he said, watching the market move in Moscow's favor.
Zelenskyy expected the prisoner swaps to continue through June 20 or 21, meaning the diplomatic window Putin had outlined—talks after June 22—would open just as these exchanges concluded. The convergence was not accidental. Both sides appeared to be using the prisoner exchanges as a runway toward renewed negotiations, though the terms, the scope, and the willingness of either party to make concessions remained unclear. What was clear was that Trump's engagement with Putin had accelerated, that Russia was signaling flexibility on timing, and that the global oil market had just handed Moscow an unexpected financial boost. For Ukraine, the arithmetic was tightening.
Notable Quotes
The tone of American dialogue with Russia is too warm and will not help end the fighting— Volodymyr Zelenskyy
His war should also end— Donald Trump, referring to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in his call with Putin
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does the date June 22 matter so much? It seems arbitrary.
It's not arbitrary at all. That's when Putin says the prisoner exchanges will be done. Both sides have agreed to swap 1,000 wounded prisoners and return bodies from each side. Once that's complete, Putin is saying Russia will sit down for new talks. It's a natural breaking point—a way to say, we'll finish this humanitarian work first, then talk about the war itself.
And Zelenskyy seems skeptical about those talks?
Not skeptical exactly, but cautious. He didn't say yes or no. He said the exchanges will finish and then "the parties will discuss the next step." That's diplomatic language for: we'll see what Russia actually wants before we commit. He's more worried about something else entirely.
The oil prices.
Exactly. When Israel struck Iran, oil prices jumped. That's money in Russia's pocket. Russia sells oil to fund the war. Higher prices mean more rubles, more weapons, more soldiers paid. And the West hasn't enforced real price caps, so Russia is getting the full benefit. Zelenskyy is watching his opponent get stronger while he's trying to negotiate.
Is Trump helping or hurting Ukraine here?
That's the question everyone is asking. Trump is talking to Putin five times since taking office. He's signaling willingness to engage. Zelenskyy is worried Trump's tone is too friendly, that it might make Putin think he can get a better deal than he actually deserves. And Zelenskyy is also worried Trump might shift resources to the Middle East and forget about Ukraine.
So Ukraine is caught between two fears.
Three, really. Fear that Trump will be too soft on Putin. Fear that the Middle East will steal American attention and weapons. And fear that the global economy—oil prices, in this case—will work against them. They're trying to negotiate from a position that keeps getting weaker.