Ukraine has fulfilled everything necessary for this progress.
As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, a quiet but consequential shift is underway: the battlefield is no longer only measured in trenches and territory, but in refineries, satellites, and the architecture of wealth. Ukrainian drones are reaching deeper into Russia than ever before, striking the economic foundations of the war machine rather than its front edge. Diplomacy, too, is moving — haltingly but meaningfully — toward a new geometry for Ukraine's place in Europe, while courts are closing the financial escape routes that have long sheltered those who fund the conflict from a distance.
- Ukrainian drones have now struck oil infrastructure more than 800 kilometers inside Russia, with some strikes reaching over 1,500 kilometers — a campaign Kyiv says is deliberately targeting the revenue streams that sustain Moscow's war effort.
- Russia's loss of Starlink access for drone targeting has created a measurable asymmetry on the frontline, enabling Ukraine's most significant territorial advances since 2024 and slowing Russia's offensive momentum across the theater.
- Russia and Belarus conducted joint nuclear exercises — launching ballistic and hypersonic missiles, moving ICBMs through forest roads, and scrambling submarines — a deliberate signal that the nuclear dimension of this conflict has not receded.
- Germany's Chancellor Merz has proposed 'associate membership' for Ukraine in the EU, a novel status that would give Kyiv a seat at the table without a vote — framed as both a peace facilitation tool and a long-term security anchor.
- The EU's Court of Justice ruled that assets hidden behind trusts and complex legal structures can still be frozen under sanctions, closing a loophole that oligarchs have used to shield wealth from accountability.
On Thursday, Ukrainian drones struck the Syzran oil refinery — a Rosneft facility more than 800 kilometers inside Russia — setting it ablaze. President Zelenskyy confirmed the strike as part of a deliberate campaign, noting that another refinery had been hit the day before. The regional governor of Samara reported two deaths. "Our long-range plan for May is being carried out largely in full," Zelenskyy said, identifying oil refineries, storage facilities, and energy infrastructure as the primary targets. Some strikes have now reached beyond 1,500 kilometers into Russian territory.
The campaign is doing more than draining revenue. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukraine's intensified mid-range strikes since early 2026 have degraded Russia's capacity for offensive operations across the entire front. Ukrainian forces have made their most significant territorial gains since 2024. Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov credited a key technological factor: Russia has lost access to Starlink for drone targeting and has found no adequate replacement, shifting the balance of initiative toward Kyiv.
In the background, Russia and Belarus completed joint nuclear exercises — launching a Yars ballistic missile and a Zircon hypersonic missile, moving ICBM trucks through forest roads, and deploying submarines from Arctic and Pacific ports. The drills were a reminder that the nuclear dimension of this conflict has not disappeared, even as conventional momentum tilts.
Diplomatically, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed a new category for Ukraine within the EU: "associate membership," which would allow Ukraine to attend EU meetings and place non-voting representatives in EU institutions without full voting rights. Zelenskyy called the prospect "very important." Former Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid framed the stakes plainly — Ukraine is a significant military producer, and the question is simply whose side that capacity will serve.
Separately, the EU's Court of Justice ruled that assets held by sanctioned Russians through trusts and layered corporate structures can still be frozen, even without a direct legal link to the sanctioned individual. The ruling, arising from Italy's seizure of companies and a yacht, found that ownership can be inferred from circumstantial evidence or from what the court called "needlessly complex legal structures" — a decision that significantly strengthens Europe's ability to pursue hidden wealth.
On Thursday, Ukrainian drones struck the Syzran oil refinery, a Rosneft facility buried more than 800 kilometers inside Russian territory. The strike set the installation ablaze. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted video evidence of the aftermath and confirmed the hit as part of a deliberate campaign. The regional governor of Samara reported two deaths from the drone attack in the city, though he made no mention of damage to the refinery itself.
This was not an isolated incident. Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces had hit another refinery the day before. The pattern reflects a coordinated strategy that has become central to how Ukraine is fighting this war. "Our long-range plan for May is being carried out largely in full," Zelenskyy stated. "The key targets are Russian oil refineries, storage facilities and other infrastructure tied to these oil revenues." Some of these strikes have reached more than 1,500 kilometers into Russian territory—a distance that would place them within striking range of Moscow itself. The cumulative effect has begun to bite: Moscow's revenue streams are contracting under the weight of both the attacks and the international sanctions regime already in place.
The strikes are doing more than draining the Russian treasury. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukraine's intensified campaign of mid-range strikes since early 2026 has degraded Russia's capacity to mount offensive operations across the entire theater of war. More tangibly, Ukrainian forces have begun pushing Russian troops backward along portions of the frontline—the most significant territorial gains Ukraine has achieved since 2024. Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's defence minister, attributed this shift partly to a technological advantage: Russia has lost access to Starlink satellite services for guiding drones to their targets, and has been unable to find a workable replacement. That single advantage, Fedorov suggested, has become critical to Ukraine's ability to slow Russia's advance and gradually seize back the initiative.
Meanwhile, Russia and Belarus completed the final phase of joint nuclear exercises. The Russian defence ministry announced that its forces had launched both a Yars ballistic missile and a Zircon hypersonic missile as part of the tests. The drills included the movement of trucks carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles through forest roads, the departure of atomic-powered submarines from Arctic and Pacific ports, and crews scrambling into warplanes. The exercises served as a reminder of the nuclear dimension hovering over the conflict, even as conventional warfare shifted in Ukraine's favor.
On the diplomatic front, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has proposed a new status for Ukraine within the European Union. In a letter to top EU officials, Merz outlined the concept of "associate membership"—a middle ground that would allow Ukraine to participate in EU meetings without voting rights, and to place non-voting representatives in the European Commission and European Parliament. Merz framed the proposal as a way to facilitate ongoing peace negotiations while addressing security concerns across the continent. Zelenskyy responded positively on Wednesday, saying the prospect was "very important" and that Ukraine had "fulfilled everything necessary for this progress."
Former Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid offered a sharper analysis of why the membership question matters at all. The real issue, she said, is not bureaucratic status but geopolitical alignment. "Ukraine is a military power with huge military production capability," Kaljulaid noted. "Whose hands must it be in? In Russian hands or western hands?" She pointed out that if Ukraine were to fall back under Russian influence, it would resume producing military equipment for Moscow rather than the West—a reversal with consequences for European security. The question, she suggested, answered itself.
In a separate development, the EU's court of justice ruled on Thursday that member states can freeze assets belonging to sanctioned Russians even when those assets are held through trusts or complex ownership structures with no direct legal link to the individuals on the sanctions list. The ruling emerged from Italian authorities' seizure of companies and a yacht held through elaborate trust arrangements. The companies challenged the asset freeze, but the court dismissed their claim, finding that ownership or control could be inferred from circumstantial evidence or from what it termed "needlessly complex legal structures." The decision strengthens the EU's ability to pursue oligarchs who attempt to hide their wealth behind layers of corporate and legal architecture.
Notable Quotes
Our long-range plan for May is being carried out largely in full. The key targets are Russian oil refineries, storage facilities and other infrastructure tied to these oil revenues.— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian president
Ukraine is a military power with huge military production capability. Whose hands must it be in? In Russian hands or western hands?— Kersti Kaljulaid, former Estonian president
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does hitting oil refineries 800 kilometers away matter more than fighting on the actual frontline?
Because you can't fight on the frontline without fuel, ammunition, money. Russia's economy is already squeezed by sanctions. These strikes drain the revenue that pays for the war itself. It's asymmetric—Ukraine can't outproduce Russia in tanks, but it can make Russia's economy bleed.
But Starlink access—that seems like a fragile advantage. What happens if Russia finds a replacement?
That's the real question. Right now, Ukraine has a window. Fedorov said Russia hasn't found a full replacement yet. But "yet" is the operative word. If Russia solves that problem, the advantage closes. Ukraine is using this moment to push back, to regain ground. It's not permanent.
The EU membership proposal—is that real progress or diplomatic theater?
It's both. Merz is trying to solve a practical problem: how do you integrate Ukraine into Western institutions without triggering nuclear powers? Associate membership keeps Ukraine anchored to Europe without the formal commitment that might provoke Moscow. But Kaljulaid's point cuts through the theater—this is about whose sphere Ukraine ends up in. That's the real negotiation.
Two people killed in Syzran. Are these strikes hitting civilians?
The governor reported two deaths but didn't specify who they were or where exactly they died. The refinery is industrial infrastructure, not a city center. But refineries employ people. The strikes are precise in their targeting, but precision doesn't mean no one dies.
What does "regaining the initiative" actually mean on the ground?
It means Ukraine stopped being pushed backward and started pushing back. For two years, Russia has been grinding forward. Now Ukraine is making territorial gains—the first significant ones since 2024. It's not a reversal of the whole war, but it's a shift. Momentum matters in war.